re: NIT Watch 2014 (artist formerly known as Bubble Watch)

dance card has g'town in and smu out. wtf

Thanks for the links. I've had the bad feeling since the Alabama loss that we are in the outside. Based on my Wave Hog Gut Feeling Meter, we have a 30% chance of getting in. Less than even odds right now, def need two SECT wins to get above 50.

Updated Lunardi

LAST 4 BYES
Stanford
Nebraska
Xavier
Tennessee

LAST 4 IN
BYU
St. Joe's
Dayton
Arkansas

FIRST 4 OUT
Cal
Minnesota
St. John's
Providence

NEXT 4 OUT
Southern Miss
Florida St.
Missouri
Georgetown

Pretty sure he had St. Joe's safely in before their loss. They dropped on to the bubble

Lunardi is a St. Joe's employee though.

I feel like people are putting too much stock in the RPI also. BYU has four bad losses, we only have two, but their RPI is higher than ours so people automatically think they're a lock and we're on the bubble.

Only reason their RPI is so high is because they lost to a lot of good teams away from home. I don't think that will be enough to keep them in.

Feb. 20: 11 seed (Last 4 In)
Feb. 24 11 seed
Feb. 27: 10 seed
Mar. 3: 10 seed
Mar. 6: 11 seed
Mar. 10: 11 seed (Last 4 In)
Today: 11 seed (Last 4 In)

You may have been thinking of St. John's.

The SOS is funny when you look at a team with a high SOS rank who has played less top100 competition than a team ranked 60 spots behind them in SOS rank.

Mid-Major schedule manipulation at its best, but give them credit to figuring out how to manipulate the numbers, I guess.

Boise played multiple D2 schools the past two years.

Outside of Chaminade in the Maui Inv. a team should not be "rewarded" for scheduling these teams.

The problem for power conference schools is the decent mid-majors want home and homes, that is fine on the face of it, but these teams can schedule other power conference schools for the same deal.

Power conference schools have to have a certain amount of home games for revenue purposes, the mid-majors are teaming up playing each other and a couple power schools each each year manipulating the RPI and SOS.

A power conference school is going to have to foot the bill to play a mid-major, either by paying them to play or by covering the expenses to play at their place.

Its a nice little racket they have going on that needs the RPI to be adjusted to account for, whether that is the RPI only considering teams played who have an RPI of 150 or better with it weighted for the amount of teams played meeting this criteria or in some other fashion.

quote:

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As of yesterday, he had UT and Arky SOL

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If Dayton loses their conference tourney game tomorrow, they are out. If St. Joe's loses their first tourney game, they are out. Only 1 of those will make it. Dayton needs to win 2, St. Joe's needs to win 1, IMO. Similiar to the Arky/Tenn situation.