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LSU ruins opposing run defenses, and it will continue against UF
Posted on 10/15/15 at 3:54 pm
Posted on 10/15/15 at 3:54 pm
Considering Florida comes into the game at #12 in the country in rushing yards per game (99.2/game) and #16 in rushing yards per attempt (3.05/attempt), I wanted to see where LSU's previously defeated opponents would rank if it weren't for having to play LSU.
First, LSU's opponents' current statistics:
TEAM--------YPA--RANK--YPG--RANK
Syracuse----3.81----49----137.8----44
Miss St-------3.73----43----170.2----73
USC----------5.46----116---207.7----105
Auburn-------5.21----114---209.6----107
EMU----------6.65----126---360.3----127
Total---------5.10------------220.2
and after removing LSU:
TEAM-------YPA--RANK--YPG--RANK
Syracuse---3.03----16----105.3---20
Miss St------3.33----26----151.0---54
USC---------4.89----101---170.0---73
Auburn------4.16----66----127.4---32
EMU---------6.44----126---354.2---127
Total--------4.58------------192.8
So, for those of you keeping track at home, here is what LSU did compared to the season averages without LSU:
TEAM------YPA---LSU---YPG---LSU
Syracuse--3.03----6.38---105.3----268
Miss St-----3.33----5.66---151.0----266
USC--------4.89----7.33---170.0----396
Auburn-----4.16----8.56---127.4----411
EMU--------6.44----7.82---354.2----391
Total-------4.58----7.19---192.8----346
EMU was the worst game when compared to their season average, and LSU still rushed for 391 yards with 7.82 YPA. In their worst gross output against MSU, LSU rushed for 266 yards with 5.66 YPA, 76% more than MSU's season average of 151/game and 70% more than their season average off 3.33 YPA.
Considering LSU's run-heavy offense, you would expect the per game numbers for an opponent to worsen after they play LSU, and that is evident in our 346 YPG versus 192.8 YPG for our opponents minus LSU - a 79% increase. However, LSU's ground game is also incredibly efficient, and it is evident in the YPA numbers. LSU is averaging 57% more YPA than our opponents averages minus LSU -7.19 YPA versus 4.58 YPA.
UF's opponents are averaging 4.97 YPA and 154.9 YPG without the UF game, so UF is holding opponents to 39% lower YPA and 36% lower YPG than their averages. While UF's defense has been dominant, particularly against ECU who had -13 yards rushing, Missouri was able to rush for 4.1 YPA compared too 3.4 YPA in their other games. Tennessee also faired well against UF, rushing for 5.0 YPA and 254 yards, which was an improvement on their 4.5 YPA and 216 YPG numbers outside of the UF game.
It is also worth noting that UF's perceived strength is their passing defense, and that coverage unit has helped generate 21 sacks for 174 yards. If I'm not mistaken, sack yardage counts against rushing yards in CFB, so it has skewed Florida's YPG and YPA numbers. If you ignore sacks, UF is actually allowing 4.52 YPA and 128 YPG. On the other hand, LSU is averaging 7.64 YPA and 357.6 YPG when sacks are removed.
While Florida will obviously be the best rushing defense LSU has faced this year, it isn't a stretch to believe LSU can run for over 250+ yards and 5+ YPA this weekend. LSU is averaging 66 plays on offense, 47 of which are rushing attempts, and UF is averaging 67 plays on defense. If UF's YPA allowed and LSU's YPA meet in the middle, you'd expect 6+ YPA for LSU and 285 yards on the ground. Those numbers are more than enough to win the game for LSU.
tl;dr version - LSU may not hit their seasonal averages Saturday, but there is no reason to think LSU can't find plenty of success on the ground against UF.
First, LSU's opponents' current statistics:
TEAM--------YPA--RANK--YPG--RANK
Syracuse----3.81----49----137.8----44
Miss St-------3.73----43----170.2----73
USC----------5.46----116---207.7----105
Auburn-------5.21----114---209.6----107
EMU----------6.65----126---360.3----127
Total---------5.10------------220.2
and after removing LSU:
TEAM-------YPA--RANK--YPG--RANK
Syracuse---3.03----16----105.3---20
Miss St------3.33----26----151.0---54
USC---------4.89----101---170.0---73
Auburn------4.16----66----127.4---32
EMU---------6.44----126---354.2---127
Total--------4.58------------192.8
So, for those of you keeping track at home, here is what LSU did compared to the season averages without LSU:
TEAM------YPA---LSU---YPG---LSU
Syracuse--3.03----6.38---105.3----268
Miss St-----3.33----5.66---151.0----266
USC--------4.89----7.33---170.0----396
Auburn-----4.16----8.56---127.4----411
EMU--------6.44----7.82---354.2----391
Total-------4.58----7.19---192.8----346
EMU was the worst game when compared to their season average, and LSU still rushed for 391 yards with 7.82 YPA. In their worst gross output against MSU, LSU rushed for 266 yards with 5.66 YPA, 76% more than MSU's season average of 151/game and 70% more than their season average off 3.33 YPA.
Considering LSU's run-heavy offense, you would expect the per game numbers for an opponent to worsen after they play LSU, and that is evident in our 346 YPG versus 192.8 YPG for our opponents minus LSU - a 79% increase. However, LSU's ground game is also incredibly efficient, and it is evident in the YPA numbers. LSU is averaging 57% more YPA than our opponents averages minus LSU -7.19 YPA versus 4.58 YPA.
UF's opponents are averaging 4.97 YPA and 154.9 YPG without the UF game, so UF is holding opponents to 39% lower YPA and 36% lower YPG than their averages. While UF's defense has been dominant, particularly against ECU who had -13 yards rushing, Missouri was able to rush for 4.1 YPA compared too 3.4 YPA in their other games. Tennessee also faired well against UF, rushing for 5.0 YPA and 254 yards, which was an improvement on their 4.5 YPA and 216 YPG numbers outside of the UF game.
It is also worth noting that UF's perceived strength is their passing defense, and that coverage unit has helped generate 21 sacks for 174 yards. If I'm not mistaken, sack yardage counts against rushing yards in CFB, so it has skewed Florida's YPG and YPA numbers. If you ignore sacks, UF is actually allowing 4.52 YPA and 128 YPG. On the other hand, LSU is averaging 7.64 YPA and 357.6 YPG when sacks are removed.
While Florida will obviously be the best rushing defense LSU has faced this year, it isn't a stretch to believe LSU can run for over 250+ yards and 5+ YPA this weekend. LSU is averaging 66 plays on offense, 47 of which are rushing attempts, and UF is averaging 67 plays on defense. If UF's YPA allowed and LSU's YPA meet in the middle, you'd expect 6+ YPA for LSU and 285 yards on the ground. Those numbers are more than enough to win the game for LSU.
tl;dr version - LSU may not hit their seasonal averages Saturday, but there is no reason to think LSU can't find plenty of success on the ground against UF.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 3:56 pm to slackster
Top flight defenses lsu's faced so far.
Lsu will lose two or three games this year. Their pre-season is now over.
Lsu will lose two or three games this year. Their pre-season is now over.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 3:58 pm to TT9
You may be on loss two before nov 7. Hahahaha
Posted on 10/15/15 at 3:58 pm to slackster
Solid analysis. However, still doesn't lead to your hypothesis. It is fair to say that we will be able to run better than Gator fans believe.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 3:58 pm to slackster
No one is going to acknowledge it, but there is some solid info that you've provided.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 3:59 pm to slackster
Front seven has been strong, it's the secondary that's concerning so far this season for us
Posted on 10/15/15 at 3:59 pm to Nado Jenkins83
quote:dat Cajun lingo?
You may be on loss two before nov 7. Hahahaha
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:00 pm to TT9
quote:
Lsu will lose two or three games this year. Their pre-season is now over.
Just worry about that shite show that resides in Tuscaloosa
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:01 pm to RB10
Were those other defenses using roids though? UF stacked (literally), LSU fricked.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:01 pm to TT9
That's definitely grammatically correct. Geaux check for yourself
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:02 pm to winston318
I'll take our "shite show" all day, everyday.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:02 pm to TT9
quote:
dat Cajun lingo?
Gumps can't read.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:10 pm to rmnldr
It could have been worded differently I admit that myself. But it works how it is
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:11 pm to TT9
quote:
Lsu will lose two or three games this year. Their pre-season is now over.
Funny, I would say the same thing about Bama.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:13 pm to JGTiger
I thought y'all would lose 6 games before the season and finish last in the West.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:14 pm to TT9
quote:
Lsu will lose two or three games this year
didn't yall lose to ole miss?
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:15 pm to TT9
quote:
dat Cajun lingo?
uh oh, the gump's melting again
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:15 pm to TT9
quote:
dat Cajun lingo?
Struggle with the English language? I'm sure they have some remedial courses at your local CC.
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:21 pm to RB10
Dudes probably from fork city. Let him be
Posted on 10/15/15 at 4:24 pm to slackster
These stats are crazy, Nice work man
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