re: Is Big Six Status Permanent?

quote:

---

Can we at least set up a Medium 4 for us to aspire to?

---

I think that's fair. Pretty much everyone except for LSU & Bama (big 2) and Vandy (could be decades before they're bowl eligible again) could make a case for being lumped in the middle tier.

quote:

---

There are none Big 6 members now

---

That doesn't seem like a very Vandy thing to say...

quote:

---

23-17(10)
43-37

---

24-6
2014-1963

quote:

---

Auburn is both a member of the Big 6 and Litte 8, depending on the season. They are some up and down SOBs

---

While Auburn's roller coaster dips/rises are far more extreme than the other top programs in the conference, it all seems to even out for them.

LSU has probably had the most extreme drought of any of the Big 6 programs in the modern era.

1989: 4-7
1990: 5-6
1991: 5-6
1992: 2-9
1993: 5-6
1994: 4-7

1995-1997 saw LSU improve a bit, before suffering a 4-win season in 1998 and a 3-win season in 1999.

That era of LSU football even makes Tennessee fans scratch their head as to how a top-tier program could be that down for that long.

You have to go back to the late 1940s or early 1950s to find a time when Auburn had that many consecutive losing seasons.

Auburn seems to have bad years more often than any of the other top programs, but somehow they find a way to book-end the down years with SEC Championships. It's certainly a roller coaster down there. Always has been.

quote:

---

23-17(10)
43-37

---

47-11-2

I don't think any team has done anythign in the last 20-30 years to take over one

Still only 6 to even win an SEC Championship game.

quote:

---

Auburn is only 3 years past their last winless conference season. Didn't think another one would happen so soon.

---

Me neither. But like I said earlier: They will probably go 0-8 this year and then win the SEC next year. That's how they do it somehow.

quote:

---

We're about to supplant FL in the Swamp. They'll be handing us your seat at the B6 table on the way out the door.....

---

This is such a perfect example of little 8 thinking it needs to be highlighted. Yes, yes you'll could win on Saturday just like you won in 2008, but as happened then-- you're still Ole Miss and we're still Florida, in two years Freeze's miracle class will all be gone and we'll still be Florida.


You (and the rest of the little 8) win games and celebrate, we (and the rest of the big 6) win championships and act like we've been there before and will be there again.

quote:

---

Winning % against other "Big 6" programs since 1933:

60.5%- Alabama (165-106-11)
50.5%- Florida (140-137-6)
49.0%- Auburn (147-153-10)
46.8%- Georgia (120-137-8)
45.9%- Tennessee (101-120-11)
45.5%- LSU (101-120-11)

---

So the benchmark appears to be to have a minimum 45% winning percentage against the "Big 6" going back to the formation of the conference.

To put this in perspective, this is where the next three closest programs stand (Texas A&M and Missouri excluded for now):

34.1%- Ole Miss
29.8%- Mississippi State
29.5%- Arkansas

In order to get to 45% winning percentage against the Big 6...

Arkansas would have to win their next 35 games against the "Big 6"

Ole Miss would have to win their next 56 games against the "Big 6"

Mississippi State would have to win their next 95 games against the "Big 6"

I think this puts it all into perspective as to how joining the "Big 6" can't be done because a certain team happened to have one great year. That one great year just erased one of the 30 bad years which currently hinder you from being in the Big 6.


It works in the other direction too. Since Ole Miss is the next closest, with a 34.1% record against the "Big 6" since the SEC was formed, let's actually say as long as you stay above 40% then a current "Big 6" member gets to keep its membership (they'd still be quite a bit ahead of Ole Miss at that point).

LSU would have to go 0-32 in its next 32 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Tennessee would have to go 0-35 in its next 35 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Georgia would have to go 0-46 in its next 46 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Auburn would have to go 0-71 in its next 71 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Florida would have to go 0-75 in its next 75 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Alabama would have to go 0-145 in its next 145 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

If a program plays 3.5 games per year against "Big 6" opponents, it would take Alabama 41 years of being winless against the "Big 6" in order to fall down to a point in which its "Big 6" status might be questioned.

While LSU is the closest, it would still take them around 9 seasons of going winless against the "Big 6" in order to have their status questioned.

Even then though, these programs would be at 40% against the "Big 6" since the SEC was formed... the next closest (Ole Miss) would still be way down at 34.1%. So we're just talking the point of having the status even questioned.

So the point is that if Ole Miss has a great year and wins the SEC, it does not improve their status.

Likewise, if Tennessee struggles and goes 4-31 against the "Big 6" (as they have since 2006), their status is still safe.

As bad as the Vols have been in the last decade, they'd have to fair even worse in the next decade ahead for their status to begin being questioned. They've won 4 of their last 35 games vs. the "Big 6". They'd have to win zero of their next 35 games in order to fall below 40% against the "Big 6" since 1933.

So again, this membership is not something that is reviewed every year. If Arky, A&M, or Ole Miss can put together a 10-15 year period of sustainted success and multiple championships, then the conversation might be able to be started. But at this point, we're no where close.