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re: I found this interesting for the top 32 drafted players and their
Posted on 4/23/10 at 11:02 am to pankReb
Posted on 4/23/10 at 11:02 am to pankReb
quote:
I wouldn't expect anyone other than a Hawg or MSU fan to make this post.
WOW Pank I would have thought that all of the first round NFL picks would have had to been 5* recruits.
I think it kinda proves my point that 3* players out of HS can develop in college and become first round draft picks.
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Posted on 4/23/10 at 11:09 am to ljhog
quote:
Two observations:
First, it would be interesting to see a breakdown along star lines for the first 3 or 4 rounds.
Secondly, the OP just shows that lower rated HS players can develop into good college players.
And year in, year out there are players taken early who are products of a coaches long-term vision and their ability to build the player they need him to be. Some coaches have to recruit in this manner and when they do, they know what to look for.
LINK
This kid was a Running Back in HS. If you don't know his name you haven't paid attention to college football for a couple of years.
Some of you guys work very hard at discounting Petrino's lack of Rivals Ranking, and that's fine. What you may want to pay attention to is his development of those "fair to spare" players over time. And candidly, the development while in the SEC means more to me than where they will/will not be drafted. I'm sure Auburn fans agree they would rather have beaten Arkansas than watching Ben Tate go above Michael Smith (who won't be drafted). But congrats on the Day Two party.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 11:47 am to Sao
The simple fact is, stars matter. You can talk about developement of players, but just a glance at the link provided by bearisdead says it all.
The odds of a five star being drafted: 40-48%
The odds of a four star being drafted: 9-11%
The odds of a three star being drafted: 3.%
The odds of a two star being drafted: Less than 1%.
Here are the numbers. The average recruiting rankings since 2002 and SEC records since then:
Team SEC Record Average Rivals recruiting ranking
Florida 48-16 7.6
LSU 45-19 8
Georgia 44-20 6.3
Auburn 41-23 13.3
Tennessee 39-25 13.3
Alabama 39-25 16.8
Arkansas 30-34 25
S. Carolina 27-37 17.6
Ole Miss 25-39 27.6
Kentucky 19-45 57.1
Miss St. 15-49 34.1
Vandy 12-52 71.8
The odds of a five star being drafted: 40-48%
The odds of a four star being drafted: 9-11%
The odds of a three star being drafted: 3.%
The odds of a two star being drafted: Less than 1%.
Here are the numbers. The average recruiting rankings since 2002 and SEC records since then:
Team SEC Record Average Rivals recruiting ranking
Florida 48-16 7.6
LSU 45-19 8
Georgia 44-20 6.3
Auburn 41-23 13.3
Tennessee 39-25 13.3
Alabama 39-25 16.8
Arkansas 30-34 25
S. Carolina 27-37 17.6
Ole Miss 25-39 27.6
Kentucky 19-45 57.1
Miss St. 15-49 34.1
Vandy 12-52 71.8
Posted on 4/23/10 at 11:56 am to secfan123
Of course they matter. And coaching 3's up to "4's" matter as well. If he can't do it that is a positive for the SEC. The beef here isn't with Petrino as much as it is with his loyal fans standing behind his evaluations. Rankings be damn. Not sure why so many find that so hard to deal with...why putting trust in our coach is a bad thing. Yuck it up! It bothers no one.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:07 pm to Sao
Sao I'm not saying it can't be done... tubs made a living off coaching up 3 stars, and flopping on 5s.. its just harder to win on a consistent basis this way.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:09 pm to thebearisdead
20/32 were 4&5 stars. I would say recruiting services are doing a good job.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:10 pm to thebearisdead
great info secfan...its what the thread was missing 
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:17 pm to Choctaw Hog
quote:
I don't know, why don't you tell us? And does the "law of averages" work for 1 Star and 0 Star players as well? I didn't seen any.
Sweet.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:29 pm to Whereisomaha
Thanks omaha. A great coach once said you can't make chicken salad with chicken shite. The numbers bear that out. Of course a team like Boise or Utah will be able to compete for a game against a more talented team- just like Ole Miss could pull the upset at the swamp (great game btw) but the fact is, over time, when you compete against the same competition, the best recruiting classes tend to produce the best records. The recruiting services are actually pretty darned good at their jobs.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:38 pm to Choctaw Hog
quote:
jort wearing “expert football evaluators”.
Hey, hey, hey, leave UF fans out of this. We are just
.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:46 pm to roadGator
What the hell, I am on the Petrino bandwagon. He is the only coach that really knows how to evaluate players, all the rest are only chasing stars. Arkansas will win the SEC undefeated and play for the crystal football, all with Petrino evaluated talent. The other 11 SEC coaches will take notes on Petrino's earth shattering discovery of talent evaluation this fall.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:51 pm to southarktiger
You must have not gotten the memo.. everything that has ever had anything to do with the state of Arkansas is the best, other than Micheal Dyer that is...
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:54 pm to thebearisdead
I live in the state of Arkansas, trust me I know.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 12:57 pm to southarktiger
Haha.. yeah I've got family from Arkansas.. they talk about how great it is, yet they all moved to AL to live and work.. it's like they live in their own little world.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 1:00 pm to southarktiger
quote:
What the hell, I am on the Petrino bandwagon. He is the only coach that really knows how to evaluate players, all the rest are only chasing stars. Arkansas will win the SEC undefeated and play for the crystal football, all with Petrino evaluated talent. The other 11 SEC coaches will take notes on Petrino's earth shattering discovery of talent evaluation this fall.
Don't forget about outcoaching the other coaches in the SEC. Of course, Petrino is is currently 3-14 in his career (0-8 at Arkansas) against teams that finish ranked in the top 25, but that's bound to improve, right?
Posted on 4/23/10 at 1:09 pm to Sao
quote:
The beef here isn't with Petrino as much as it is with his loyal fans standing behind his evaluations.
That's just it, Hog fans jump on the current coach's bandwagon, them when he fails to achieve the impossible, you all throw them under the bus. If Petrino doesn't win the west in the next few years, the black shirts and airplane banners will come out.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 1:19 pm to southarktiger
You could be right.
Question for you: Would you trade Miles for Petrino?
Posted on 4/23/10 at 1:23 pm to Sao
Haha well played
Posted on 4/23/10 at 1:29 pm to Sao
In short, No. Not big on Miles, however I feel his days are numbered anyway. When he's gone, I would like to see someone better than Petrino.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 1:31 pm to southarktiger
That wasn't the question. Sure you would pick and choose, the question is between your coach and ours however. Nice skirt.
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