Huge pet peeve (starting 22)

Anyone try those new bacon club chalopas at taco bell yet?

The only thing that aggravates me is when doing comparisons between two teams is why do you compare say Bamas OL vs LSU OL. It's not like they face each other. Why not compare their DL vs the others OL.

quote:

---

A huge pet peeve I have is when someone says "but they only return (x) amount of starters." Every situation is different and just because a team only returns a low number of starters does not mean that they will be worse. Just as many times than not some teams are better after losing graduating starters and sometimes junior pros.

---

I wonder if your pet peeve is any less reactionary than the ones who reflexively praise returning starters without knowing why or how much it might matter. Certainly, I've seen few educate themselves on the subject but for those willing to learn a bit on the topic Dave Bartoo has the best/most facts based analysis I've seen on the subject.

Via an older article by Bartoo:

quote:

---

Offense: The magic number on offense is 7. This is the cut line for winning. Below 7 returning offensive starters and your team’s odds for 2012 having as many or more wins than in 2011 drops to or below 50%. Of the 14 teams that returned 10 or 11 in the last 4 years, 10 went on to an equal or better number of regular season wins in the next season. Overall, teams with 7 or more starters on Offense coming back had .36 more wins per team and .62 more wins for those returning 8 or more. Teams with 6 or fewer back on offense averaged -.62 fewer games won for each team and the odds of having a worse record in 2012 versus 2011 is 52%.


Offense Nutshell. There is very little overall impact on offensive returning starters between returning 4-9 players. 8 or more is about an extra win for every other team. It is clear there is a difference in performance at 7 or more coming back. However the odds of your team having as many or more wins in 2012 based on 9 or fewer returning starters on offense is still less than 62% in at any number. 27 AQ schools return 8 or more on offense.
------------------
Defense: Unlike the offense, the defense needs another player. Teams returning 7 or fewer on the defensive side of the ball, have the odds against them. Those teams average -.21 less games won per team versus the previous year and have a 45% chance of having fewer wins in 2012. Teams with 8+ starters on D coming back, average nearly a plus half a game each over the previous year win total. There are 23 teams in 2012 with 8+ returning and 6 of those teams are coming off of 10+ win seasons (see more about 10+ Ws below). Teams returning 7+ on defense average just +.23 games more wins per team.

Defense Nutshell: Returning less than 7 starters on Defense is a 50/50 coin flip for a record as good or better than in 2011. 8-9 back on D and your odds go to just over 60% for an as good of better record. Only 10+ is a huge lock with 7 out of 7 teams having as good or better records at 100% in the last 4 years. This year it is an amazing 6 teams with 10+ back on D.

---

Bartoo among other things also notes that 16 or more is the total you want to see for your team.

LINK /

quote:

---

What's up Prof?

I will be seeing your boys live and in person Saturday afternoon. Meeting my best friend and his dad and some people from work. Should be fun. Gonna have to leave during the 3rd quarter though, to meet my buddy for the Bama game. I am sure Tennessee will have it well in hand by then.

---

harmonics! Something told me to check this thread again. I'm doing good. Hope you are as well.

Glad to hear you're gonna get to watch the boys in person. They're gonna be a fun team this year and it's nice that we've got so many Tennessee kids on this team. We're going to be playing something like 22 true freshmen in the BG game mostly on special teams and as backups but some in a significant rules so you'll get to see a lot of the youngest of the young guns in action (our old men being the sophomores, a handful of juniors and seniors, and Curt Maggitt).

Keep your eye out for Jauan Jennings. He approached the coaches on his own and asked to switch from QB to WR after Spring camp. Recruiting services had him as a 4* QB but 247 said he'd have been a 5* safety and that's where most thought he'd switch if he decided to change positions so WR was a bit of a surprise. Even more surprising is the fact that he has balled out all camp at the position. Even so few would have guessed he'd be named starter in the opener against BG.

I expect some obvious mistakes from him, especially since he's playing the position for the first time ever but I also expect his speed and toughness will be amazing to watch. He's been taking most of his reps in the slot and is listed as starting there but he's also started taking more reps at the other WR spots as he's learned.

His number is 15.

Also, Preston Williams will see some snaps. His number is 7. He's ahead of schedule in terms of his knee rehab but I think the coaches want to work him in slowly and get him used to contact.

Enjoy the game and enjoy the Bama game as well. Here's to a nice injury free opening week/weekend as the best damn sport on the planet returns!