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Here's what it would take for OSU to jump Bama.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:16 am
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:16 am
Currently...
Harris Poll (made up of 115 votes)
Bama - 2756 pts. or on average 111 2nd place votes & 4 3rd place votes.
OSU - 2414 pts. or on average 114 5th place votes & 1 6th place vote.
Coaches Poll (made up of 59 votes)
Bama - 1411 pts. or on average 54 second place votes & 5 3rd place votes.
OSU - 1245 pts. or on average 53 5th place votes and 6 4th place votes.
Computers (made up of 6 computers...highest and lowest discarded)
Bama - 95 pts. or 3 2nd place and 1 3rd place.
OSU - 93 pts. or 3 3rd place and 1 2nd place.
Here's what would have to happen. Of course OSU would have to beat OU.
Harris Poll - There are already 4 voters who are putting Bama at #3. Bama would stay at #3 with those voters and OSU would have to take the #2 spot in those voters eyes. That may already be happening. We don't know who those voters have at #2 right now. Then, at least 28 voters of the remaining 111 would have to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. The remaining 83 voters could still put OSU at #3 and Bama at #2.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 2728 pts (or .94887) and OSU would have 2677 pts. (or .93113)
Coaches Poll - There are already 5 voters who are putting Bama at #3. Bama would stay at #3 with those voters and OSU would have to take the #2 spot in those voters eyes. That may already be happening. Then, at least 9 voters of the remaining 54 would have to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. The remaining 45 voters could still put OSU at #3 and Bama at #2.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 1402 pts. (or .95051) and OSU would have 1371 pts. (.92949)
Computer Polls - 5 of the 6 computer polls need to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. This will probably happen IF OSU beats OU.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 92 pts. (or .92) and OSU would have 96 pts. (.96)
Bama - (.94887 + .95051 + .92)/3 = .93979
OSU - (.93113 + .92949 + .96)/3 = .94021
In summary, OSU needs about 25% of the Harris voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot. And about 17% of the Coaches voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot.
This is the best case scenerio for OSU. This is assuming they jump Va Tech and Stanford with their victory. Of course if Va Tech loses to Clemson, that helps OSU's cause, but they still have to be clearly ahead of Stanford. There will still be some voters who put Stanford ahead of them. We just don't know how many.
Although slim, it appears there is still a chance for OSU.
There's no way Va Tech moves to #2. They're too far behind in the computers (average ranking #10)
I hope this doesn't happen. LSU / Bama are the two best and should play.
Harris Poll (made up of 115 votes)
Bama - 2756 pts. or on average 111 2nd place votes & 4 3rd place votes.
OSU - 2414 pts. or on average 114 5th place votes & 1 6th place vote.
Coaches Poll (made up of 59 votes)
Bama - 1411 pts. or on average 54 second place votes & 5 3rd place votes.
OSU - 1245 pts. or on average 53 5th place votes and 6 4th place votes.
Computers (made up of 6 computers...highest and lowest discarded)
Bama - 95 pts. or 3 2nd place and 1 3rd place.
OSU - 93 pts. or 3 3rd place and 1 2nd place.
Here's what would have to happen. Of course OSU would have to beat OU.
Harris Poll - There are already 4 voters who are putting Bama at #3. Bama would stay at #3 with those voters and OSU would have to take the #2 spot in those voters eyes. That may already be happening. We don't know who those voters have at #2 right now. Then, at least 28 voters of the remaining 111 would have to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. The remaining 83 voters could still put OSU at #3 and Bama at #2.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 2728 pts (or .94887) and OSU would have 2677 pts. (or .93113)
Coaches Poll - There are already 5 voters who are putting Bama at #3. Bama would stay at #3 with those voters and OSU would have to take the #2 spot in those voters eyes. That may already be happening. Then, at least 9 voters of the remaining 54 would have to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. The remaining 45 voters could still put OSU at #3 and Bama at #2.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 1402 pts. (or .95051) and OSU would have 1371 pts. (.92949)
Computer Polls - 5 of the 6 computer polls need to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. This will probably happen IF OSU beats OU.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 92 pts. (or .92) and OSU would have 96 pts. (.96)
Bama - (.94887 + .95051 + .92)/3 = .93979
OSU - (.93113 + .92949 + .96)/3 = .94021
In summary, OSU needs about 25% of the Harris voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot. And about 17% of the Coaches voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot.
This is the best case scenerio for OSU. This is assuming they jump Va Tech and Stanford with their victory. Of course if Va Tech loses to Clemson, that helps OSU's cause, but they still have to be clearly ahead of Stanford. There will still be some voters who put Stanford ahead of them. We just don't know how many.
Although slim, it appears there is still a chance for OSU.
There's no way Va Tech moves to #2. They're too far behind in the computers (average ranking #10)
I hope this doesn't happen. LSU / Bama are the two best and should play.
10
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:18 am to LoyalTiger
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Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:19 am to LoyalTiger
Thanks for posting. I hope we meet again in NOLA 
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:19 am to LoyalTiger
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:20 am to LoyalTiger
Sorry, but we only know one thing for sure right now and that's.......Bama is in the big game.
ESPN is going to make sure we are in it. The BCS system blows, but it's working in our favor this year.
I understand LSU fans being mad, because I would be, if we beat yall and the roles were reversed.
ESPN is going to make sure we are in it. The BCS system blows, but it's working in our favor this year.
I understand LSU fans being mad, because I would be, if we beat yall and the roles were reversed.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:20 am to LoyalTiger
Very good summary LT.
This is the part that I don't think will happen unless OK State beats OK by 40 points or more. A real chance, but a long shot at best.
quote:
In summary, OSU needs about 25% of the Harris voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot. And about 17% of the Coaches voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot.
This is the part that I don't think will happen unless OK State beats OK by 40 points or more. A real chance, but a long shot at best.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:21 am to LoyalTiger
quote:
Here's what it would take for OSU to jump Bama
Poll voters to come to their senses and put OSU number 2 after they beat OK
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:23 am to Placebeaux
quote:
Poll voters to come to their senses and put OSU number 2 after they beat OK
For the record, this is the type of post that makes Bama fans think that yall are scared.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:23 am to TideRolls
The only thing that concerns me is that there WILL be some anti-SEC, rematch, non-conference championship voters. I just hope it's not that many.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:25 am to LoyalTiger
quote:
The only thing that concerns me is that there WILL be some anti-SEC, rematch, non-conference championship voters. I just hope it's not that many.
Exactly what I was going to post.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:29 am to LoyalTiger
Chokelahoma will beat little brother in Bedlam so the point is mout, but it would be cool if OSU did win just to watch the Gumps panic for 24 hours.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:29 am to TreyAnastasio
quote:
Sorry, but we only know one thing for sure right now and that's.......Bama is in the big game.
Also for the record, this is the type of post that makes LSU fans think that yall are arrogant.
Most sensible LSU fans (I'm not claiming the insane fringe posts) will agree that at the moment, Bama looks to be in great shape to make the BCSCG.
However, we have lived 2 of the craziest BCS final weekends in the history of this insane method of selecting a champion and all we are saying is that you may want to wait before booking a non-refundable ticket.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:31 am to Smash Mouth Tider
quote:This is the year that the BCS was designed for. It is working perfectly. At the end of the year, the best two teams in the ocountry will play each other.
The BCS system blows, but it's working in our favor this year.
When there are two undefeated teams like last year, or 2005, 2002, 1999, it is easy to match the best two teams and in those years playoffs don't even creep into your mind. But in years liek this, we need the BCS. And it will get things right.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:31 am to LoyalTiger
Sorry, but that is way too much math for bama fans.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:34 am to Smash Mouth Tider
quote:
Sorry, but we only know one thing for sure right now and that's.......Bama is in the big game.
It's clear to see bama fans aren't even paying attention to the Bedlam game.
But it will be hysterical if OSU passes up bama this sunday.
The epicness of this board would be amazing
It would absolutely make this year even sweeter than it already is.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:34 am to TheDoc
Everyone might as well just send Bama to the NC game, hell they are going to claim it regardless.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:36 am to alajones
quote:
The BCS system blows, but it's working in our favor this year.
This is the year that the BCS was designed for. It is working perfectly. At the end of the year, the best two teams in the ocountry will play each other.
When there are two undefeated teams like last year, or 2005, 2002, 1999, it is easy to match the best two teams and in those years playoffs don't even creep into your mind. But in years liek this, we need the BCS. And it will get things right.
No, playoff is needed.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:36 am to Marines4Auburn
quote:
Everyone might as well just send Bama to the NC game, hell they are going to claim it regardless.
The delusional has reached epic levels
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:38 am to LsuTool
Thats what we want to here. LsuTool you will be getting your wish.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:38 am to Waffle House
quote:
Also for the record, this is the type of post that makes LSU fans think that yall are arrogant.
Most sensible LSU fans (I'm not claiming the insane fringe posts) will agree that at the moment, Bama looks to be in great shape to make the BCSCG.
However, we have lived 2 of the craziest BCS final weekends in the history of this insane method of selecting a champion and all we are saying is that you may want to wait before booking a non-refundable ticket.
It's not being arrogant.
ESPN controls this thing and wants us in it.
I've said numerous times that a team should win their conference to be elgible for the BCSNC.
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