Started By
Message
re: Help me understand the MSU mindset.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:05 am to MSU4ever
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:05 am to MSU4ever
quote:
You're so scared of a rematch on a neutral field.
Look. Alabama has played in 3 really close games where the outcome was in question late in the 4th quarter.
The State game wasn't one of them.
0
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:06 am to CrimsonCoast
If you forgive Ohio State's home loss to a bad Virginia Tech team that lost 6-3 in overtime to Wake Forest, then you can forgive MSU's loss in a hostile Bryant Denny Stadium to the #1 team in the country.
Let's also forgive Missouri's home loss to a 3-8 Indiana team. Without that, Mizzou is 10-1 and in the thick of the playoff picture.
If I were Alabama, I'd much rather play Ohio State than MSU as well. So I can't blame you for your Buckeye dickriding.
Let's also forgive Missouri's home loss to a 3-8 Indiana team. Without that, Mizzou is 10-1 and in the thick of the playoff picture.
If I were Alabama, I'd much rather play Ohio State than MSU as well. So I can't blame you for your Buckeye dickriding.
This post was edited on 11/24/14 at 9:07 am
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:07 am to DynastyDawg
quote:
If you follow the link you posted to the committee's website, it specifically says "Every game counts".
Yeah, including the championship game, which MSU won't play in unless Auburn beats Alabama.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:07 am to CrimsonCoast
quote:
I have been paying attention. And they have not been playing the "what-if" game. Right now, there are no conference champions to give weight to. In two weeks, there will be 5 of them. Unless Alabama loses to Auburn, MSU won't be one of them.
Doesn't matter. The only thing state has to worry about, if there is anything, are the the teams currently ahead of us and conference champions. That being said, there are currently 4 teams to worry about, FSU, Bama, Ohio State, and Oregon. If any of those 4 lose a game, provided we win Saturday, we are 100% in. That is a combined 8 games, 6 of which are predicted to be within 10 points or closer. One of the other two is Ohio State and Michigan, and upsets happen.
We still may get in if those 4 win out, but the probability of them winning all 8 of those games is slim. If you give the favored team a 75% chance to win all 8 games, there is only a 10% chance that they all win out. If you give them only a 60% chance to win their conference championships, and 75% chance to win their rivalry games, there is only a 4% chance they all win out.
If we say state has a 50% chance of getting in if everything holds and we all win out, and compare it with the odds above, then there is a 2% chance we don't get into the playoff. I like our odds.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:08 am to anc
quote:
Let's also forgive Missouri's home loss to a 3-8 Indiana team. Without that, Mizzou is 10-1 and in the thick of the playoff picture.
Hell Missouri still has a conference Championship to play! They will get in!
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:08 am to anc
quote:
If you forgive Ohio State's home loss to a bad Virginia Tech team that lost 6-3 in overtime to Wake Forest, then you can forgive MSU's loss in a hostile Bryant Denny Stadium to the #1 team in the country.
Let's also forgive Missouri's home loss to a 3-8 Indiana team. Without that, Mizzou is 10-1 and in the thick of the playoff picture.
I'm not saying I would forgive it. I'm saying that the committee may forgive it.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:09 am to CrimsonCoast
Ok, so whip the VT game away and add in the conference championship they have and we don't.
We still have a harder schedule, by about 60 places, and we have dominated lesser opponents.
Ohio State has neither.
We still have a harder schedule, by about 60 places, and we have dominated lesser opponents.
Ohio State has neither.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:12 am to CrimsonCoast
skirp's analysis is right. If MSU beats Ole Miss, the likelyhood of just one of the following happening and making the MSU/Ohio State beauty contest irrelevant is pretty good:
Auburn over Alabama AND MSU over Georgia/Missouri
Georgia/Missouri over Alabama
UCLA over Oregon
Oregon State over Oregon
Wisconsin over Ohio State
Michigan over Ohio State
Florida over Florida State
Georgia Tech over Florida State
and even if none of these happen (which is unlikely), there's a 50-50 shot that the committee picks MSU over Ohio State.
Auburn over Alabama AND MSU over Georgia/Missouri
Georgia/Missouri over Alabama
UCLA over Oregon
Oregon State over Oregon
Wisconsin over Ohio State
Michigan over Ohio State
Florida over Florida State
Georgia Tech over Florida State
and even if none of these happen (which is unlikely), there's a 50-50 shot that the committee picks MSU over Ohio State.
This post was edited on 11/24/14 at 9:14 am
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:12 am to skirpnasty
quote:
Doesn't matter. The only thing state has to worry about, if there is anything, are the the teams currently ahead of us and conference champions. That being said, there are currently 4 teams to worry about, FSU, Bama, Ohio State, and Oregon. If any of those 4 lose a game, provided we win Saturday, we are 100% in. That is a combined 8 games, 6 of which are predicted to be within 10 points or closer. One of the other two is Ohio State and Michigan, and upsets happen.
We still may get in if those 4 win out, but the probability of them winning all 8 of those games is slim. If you give the favored team a 75% chance to win all 8 games, there is only a 10% chance that they all win out. If you give them only a 60% chance to win their conference championships, and 75% chance to win their rivalry games, there is only a 4% chance they all win out.
If we say state has a 50% chance of getting in if everything holds and we all win out, and compare it with the odds above, then there is a 2% chance we don't get into the playoff. I like our odds.
Skirpnasty - best response yet. I get that you like the odds that one of those things falling to get you in. However, if they don't, I don't think you will be in.
That's why it confuses me that MSU fans aren't all on the Gus Bus this weekend. Auburn wins, you beat Ole Miss, you're golden. What am I missing?
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:14 am to CrimsonCoast
quote:
That's why it confuses me that MSU fans aren't all on the Gus Bus this weekend. Auburn wins, you beat Ole Miss, you're golden. What am I missing?
I think we are, but we also understand that it probably won't happen. That feeling is aided by the realization that playing in the SECCG could realistically be a liability at this point. If we didn't have a loss then it's no big deal, but a 2 loss team just isn't getting in.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:15 am to CrimsonCoast
quote:
That's why it confuses me that MSU fans aren't all on the Gus Bus this weekend. Auburn wins, you beat Ole Miss, you're golden. What am I missing?
I posted above. There are eight scenarios where we are a lock if we beat Ole Miss. 7 of them don't involve us having to play Georgia and risk everything.
I'm not completely sold - an SEC Championship would be awesome, but if you want to know the mindset that you are looking for, that might be a glimpse of it, fair enough?
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:17 am to CrimsonCoast
quote:
However, if they don't, I don't think you will be in.
Well your opinion is irrelevant to the committee so I don't think it much matters what you think.
quote:
What am I missing?
Maybe the fact that we just want to win our game, and let everything else play out.
Do you think if enough of us gather in one place and cheer really loud that we can effect the outcome of one of the other games?
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:19 am to skirpnasty
quote:
I think we are, but we also understand that it probably won't happen. That feeling is aided by the realization that playing in the SECCG could realistically be a liability at this point. If we didn't have a loss then it's no big deal, but a 2 loss team just isn't getting in.
So, if we play the probability game:
Scenario 1: Auburn beats Alabama; MSU has to play either Georgia or Missouri in SEC Championship game.
Scenario 2: Bama beats Auburn; MSU has to hope one of the conference championship games is an upset or have to win a beauty contest between 12-win tOSU and 11-win MSU.
In one scenario, you control your own destiny, the other, you don't. I kind of like No. 1.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:19 am to DynastyDawg
Doesn't matter bc wisconsin's Gordon is gonna end this argument
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:21 am to anc
quote:
I'm not completely sold - an SEC Championship would be awesome, but if you want to know the mindset that you are looking for, that might be a glimpse of it, fair enough?
Fair enough. Talking/typing through it helps. As long as you aren't hanging your hat on getting in over 12-win B1G Champions tOSU, it kind of makes sense. I guess.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:24 am to CrimsonCoast
I'm for Auburn. Hope that information somehow helps you have a happier Thanksgiving.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:24 am to CrimsonCoast
Rooting for, or against, anyone has NO impact on the outcome.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:40 am to CrimsonCoast
The reality is that Ms St has a better resume' than all others outside of Bama.
The reality is that the committee sees that.
Realities:
1- MSU opponents have more wins than Ohio st, Tcu, Oregon. TCU opponents only have 59 wins and 58 losses. At least MSU is beating teams that win.
2- until yesterday, Baylor had only beaten 3 teams with a winning record! Tx picked up a win yesterday to become the 4th team. 2 of those teams have Arkansas like records.
The reality is that list is long and there is no comparison on who should go.
The reality is that the committee sees that.
Realities:
1- MSU opponents have more wins than Ohio st, Tcu, Oregon. TCU opponents only have 59 wins and 58 losses. At least MSU is beating teams that win.
2- until yesterday, Baylor had only beaten 3 teams with a winning record! Tx picked up a win yesterday to become the 4th team. 2 of those teams have Arkansas like records.
The reality is that list is long and there is no comparison on who should go.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:56 am to allin2010
quote:
They know Bama woukd rape them in a rematch.
You're smoking crack! Bama has a shite team. It's humiliating that we lost to them to begin with. Miss State will beat Bama by multiple TDs if they play again. No way State plays that shitty again. Bama is the most over rated team in the country and will be the worst team in the playoff if they hold on to get there.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 10:03 am to mboromaroon
quote:
You're smoking crack! Bama has a shite team. It's humiliating that we lost to them to begin with. Miss State will beat Bama by multiple TDs if they play again. No way State plays that shitty again. Bama is the most over rated team in the country and will be the worst team in the playoff if they hold on to get there.
Wow - up to this point, the conversation has been all about resumes, CFP committee votes, game scenarios, etc. Then, out of the blue, we get someone spewing this crap all over the place. Get a hold of yourself, man.
Page 3 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News