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Going for 4th down

Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:15 am
Posted by UFFan
Planet earth, Milky Way Galaxy
Member since Aug 2016
1946 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:15 am
LINK

And no this chart does not have a Vols adjustment saying to always go for 4th down vs Tennessee.
Posted by Ham Solo
Member since Apr 2015
7727 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:18 am to
Why does it stop at 4th and 15? They should at least go to 4th and 25.
Posted by Crimson Legend
Mount St Gumpus
Member since Nov 2004
15478 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:20 am to
Very interesting. I don't know if I agree with the frequency he suggests, but I've always thought teams should go for it on 4th down more often than they do. Current strategies seem to treat field goals as automatic and failing to make it as an automatic score for the opponent.

Of course, if you're Les Miles you go for it any time, anywhere.
Posted by Prof
Member since Jun 2013
42620 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:21 am to
Good thing we fired the guy responsible.
Posted by UFFan
Planet earth, Milky Way Galaxy
Member since Aug 2016
1946 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:23 am to
Miles doesn't go for 4th down much more than any other coach. The misconception stems from one drive against UF where he went for 4th down 4 or 5 times. But if you look at the drive situation with the time remaining and distances to the 1st down marker he pretty much had to go for all of those 4th downs.
Posted by Crimson Legend
Mount St Gumpus
Member since Nov 2004
15478 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:27 am to
quote:

Miles doesn't go for 4th down much more than any other coach. The misconception stems from one drive against UF where he went for 4th down 4 or 5 times. But if you look at the drive situation with the time remaining and distances to the 1st down marker he pretty much had to go for all of those 4th downs.


That, and a couple of fakes that were successful. But don't screw up the narrative - the Legend of Miles is much more fun than reality.
Posted by UFFan
Planet earth, Milky Way Galaxy
Member since Aug 2016
1946 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:36 am to
I think the chart stops at 4th and 9 actually.
This post was edited on 8/31/16 at 8:40 am
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30591 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:48 am to
There is a psychology involved with this approach that isn't being considered. For example, there is a lot of pressure put on the offense and defense in a 4th down situation like this. Also, offensives and defenses are altered depending on field position and teams have their better packages (nickle, dime, etc.) to consider in relationship to where the ball is on the field. I will say this though, it would make the game a helluva lot more exciting for the fans.
This post was edited on 8/31/16 at 8:51 am
Posted by UFFan
Planet earth, Milky Way Galaxy
Member since Aug 2016
1946 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:50 am to
I always consider that psychological gain a load of bull that's just used by coaches as an excuse.

Plus shouldn't there be a big psychological gain from converting a 4th down?
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30591 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:55 am to
quote:

I always consider that psychological gain a load of bull that's just used by coaches as an excuse.

Plus shouldn't there be a big psychological gain from converting a 4th down?

What about the pressure put on the defense if they fail?...or the other team's momentum surge if they stop you? If you don't think that momentum (and the psychology involved) is important, you and I are talking about 2 different games.
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:57 am to
Alabama goes for it on 4th down more frequently than most coaches because Saban is smart and adapts.

It's the correct call.
Posted by RhodeDawg
Delete my account
Member since Jun 2016
4450 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:58 am to
You're right
Posted by FourThreeForty
Member since May 2013
17290 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:59 am to
Ahhhhhh the 2007 late drive again the night Tim Tebow...that game ended like 28-24 if I remember correctly. Jacob Hester was a beast in that game.
Posted by UFFan
Planet earth, Milky Way Galaxy
Member since Aug 2016
1946 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:59 am to
Momentum is a myth. Actually google it and you'll see.
Randomness is actually a lot more streaky than people think.
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30591 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 9:15 am to
quote:

Alabama goes for it on 4th down more frequently than most coaches because Saban is smart and adapts.

It's the correct call.
He knows his team... and his opponent. He doesn't have a chart to go by.
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30591 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 9:17 am to
quote:

Momentum is a myth
that's all I need to know about you.
Posted by UFFan
Planet earth, Milky Way Galaxy
Member since Aug 2016
1946 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 9:17 am to
Saban is the ultimate risk averse coach. I'd think he'd be about the last coach to go for 4th down. At least except for Jim Tressel who isn't coaching anymore.
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30591 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 9:19 am to
...and you'll never see him attempt an onsides kick.
Posted by Hog Leg
NWA
Member since Dec 2010
970 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 9:47 am to
You should look at Coach Kevin Kelley at Pulaski Academy here in Arkansas. He's sort of a mad scientist - never punts and kicks on-side kicks after every score.

He's done the math which outlines why he does what he does. So in his mind it's justified. And the proof is in the numbers. They win - and win big. Smallish school that travels all over the country and kicks people's arse. Went to Highland Park Dallas last year and snapped an 88 game home win streak they had.

There was a game locally here between PA and another really good public school. In the 2nd qtr, PA was up 28-0 and the other team hadnt touched the ball yet. Kickoff (on-side) - recover - score - onside - recover - score, etc. etc. Hilarious. They have like 15 different onside kick formations and strategies. It's a work of art.

HBO Real Sports did a story on him. Here's an article from the WaPo.

LINK

This post was edited on 8/31/16 at 9:48 am
Posted by UFFan
Planet earth, Milky Way Galaxy
Member since Aug 2016
1946 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 9:50 am to
Not saying to go for 4th down every time.

You have to keep in mind that the punters and FG kickers are a lot worse at the HS level.
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