Here is some required reading.

Disclaimer: this post was taken from Volnation but is SPOT ON:

I want to discuss where the Tennessee program is right now, relative to where it was when Heupel took over, and where it's headed.

And let's look at the most successful coaches in the game today for a comparison at the same stage of their careers.

First of all, we know what Heupel took over. But it may be forgotten by some, given how fast he turned Tennessee around and exceeded expectations in his first 2 seasons. Heupel had less than 60 scholarship players in Year 1. In the SEC. That's mind-blowing. And the ones who stayed were not the best players. Eric Gray, Ty Chandler, Wanya Morris, Too'too', Key Lawrence, Kivon Bennett, Deandre Johnson, and 20-something others all left.

The guys I named would have been the best returnees on the team. Somehow, that team went 7-6 and, but for some garbage calls in the Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue games, could have gone 10-3.

Then 2022 happened. No need to remind everyone how that team exceeded expectations. It seemed Heupel had everything in place. His culture was installed. Many of us, myself included, saw how this staff developed guys like Hooker, Tillman, Hyatt, Wright, and others who had been average to below average before becoming great college players...and we assumed they would do the same with guys like Milton (especially after the Orange Bowl), Keyton, this Oline, etc. And it hasn't happened. 2022 made us forget that we still don't have a bunch of 5 star and 4 star talent. I read yesterday that Alabama has 18 guys on its roster who were consensus 5* recruits. Tennessee has 2: Iamaleava and McCoy. Obviously, neither played yesterday.

So where we are is here:

The Good

-The culture has changed for the better. The guys play hard for the coaches and each other. We see players develop. They don't quit and pull out games in which they struggle (and would have lost under previous coaches). Pitt 2022 and Texas A&M 2023 come to mind as examples.

-The offensive system, when run correctly, is exciting. But more importantly, we've seen that it's flexible. Tennessee has been an outstanding rushing team (the 2nd half yesterday notwithstanding) for most of the year. We don't have the passing game of last season, so Heupel, and his system, have adjusted.

-The defense has improved tremendously in 3 years.

-Tennessee has re-established Neyland Stadium as a dominating home field and are exceedingly difficult to beat at home. 13 straight says it all.

-Special teams has consistently been very good under Heupel.

-Recruiting is getting better every year. Lots of young talent.

What Needs to Get Better
-Tennessee is not a good road team. In Heupel's tenure, I can think of three big road wins (only 2 of which were SEC wins): Kentucky 2021, Pitt 2022, and LSU 2022. Becoming a team that is fearless in road environments is the next step in this program's trajectory. Part of that is having Dudes...Dudes who make plays in the midst of the noise when you need a play to kill the home team's momentum. Recruiting will help this some.

-The offensive line is average. Tennessee will really need to hit the portal hard in this area. In fact, if Tennessee landed 4 stud Olinemen out of the portal, a plug and play portal TE, and nothing else, I'd be happy with that. We have some really good OLine recruits committed and hopefully add Seaton. But those guys can't be expected to contribute as freshmen. Hopefully, between portal additions and development of guys like Lang, Umarov, Nichols, and perhaps some others, we can put together some good Olines in the coming years. But my fear is, we're going to get worse before we get better...or at best, we stay the same.

-We do not have elite SEC depth. This can only be fixed by recruiting. This is really showing up at WR.

-Heupel is still a young coach who is learning. He is very smart and relates well to his players. I think he has what it takes on the macro level to run a big time program. But he's going to have to figure out some of the details. He's made bad 4th down decisions the last 2 weeks. He has to figure out how to get his team to play 60 minutes on the road and respond to adjustments. That said, I expect him to figure these things out. Dabo was hyper-criticized his first 4-5 years at Clemson (remember when "Clemsoning" was he verb for losing every big game?). Kirby was roasted for making dumb decisions in big games (remember the fake punt in the SECCG vs. Bama?). Harbaugh was also criticized for not being able to win the big one. Even Saban, at LSU was seen as an inconsistent coach who would follow a really good year with an 8-win year.

Each of these coaches in Year 3 at their current school (or, in Saban's case, Year 3 in the SEC, because it's a more apples to apples comparison):

Saban (LSU): 8-5, after going 8-4 in Year 1 and 10-3 in Year 2. Lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa 31-0, Auburn at Auburn 31-7, and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 26-8. They were awful on the road. Finished the season unranked. Pretty lackluster Year 3 at LSU for the GOAT.

Smart (Georgia): 11-3, after going 8-5 in Year 1 and 13-2 in Year 2, making the NCG. So he took a bit of a dip in Year 3. Let's not forget, Kirby inherited a boatload of talent on his first rosters. That Year 3 Georgia team was blown out on the road in Baton Rouge 36-16, then lost the SECCG to Alabama before losing to #15 Texas (Tom Hermann's one shining moment).

Swinney (Clemson): Depends on what we call Year 3 for Dabo. He went 4-3, 9-5, 6-7, then 10-4. He took over for Tommy Bowden a few games into the 2008 season, hence the weird record. That 10-4 team was his first good one, but they lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Carolina, all on the road and all blowouts, before losing their bowl game to West Virginia 70-33. But Dabo didn't really get it rolling on a year-to-year basis until his 8th season, 2015.

Harbaugh (Michigan): 8-5, after going 10-3 and 10-3 his first 2 seasons at Michigan. Was blown out at Penn State 42-7. Ohio State and Wisconsin both beat him by 2 scores at their respective home fields.

So a few thoughts on the relevancy of these comparisons:

1) Harbaugh and Saban both had previous head coaching experience at power 5 schools (and the NFL) before becoming the coach at Michigan and LSU, respectively. So they were further along in their learning curves.

2) Kirby and Dabo were both first time head coaches. In Kirby's case, though, he inherited a MUCH better roster and culture than Heupel (or anyone else in this group).

3) I see a common theme of getting over the road hump. All of these programs were still losing road games in Year 3. One difference though...Tennessee isn't getting blown out 31-0, 31-7, 36-16, and some of these other scores these other Year 3 coaches experienced.

4) Harbaugh, Kirby, Saban, and Dabo (if we count 2008 as his Year 1) ALL dropped in their W/L record in Year 3. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it's a roster reset situation? Regardless, it's actually normal...not just for any coach, but for coaches who become elite.

5) Harbaugh couldn't beat Ohio State. Kirby couldn't beat Alabama. It's tough to turn those rivalry series' around when building a program. Heupel is now 1-2 vs. Alabama, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-2 vs. Georgia.

Suffice it to say, none of these 4 coaches inherited a situation as dire as Heupel's...yet his record to this point compares favorably with all of them...in some ways, it's better, given the situation. That's not to say that Heupel is destined to be as successful as those coaches. But he's on track. He's going to have to take the next steps by recruiting/building quality SEC depth, especially on the Oline, growing as a coach, and figuring out how to get his team to win on the road.