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re: ESPN projects AU to win less than 7.5 games this year

Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:10 pm to
Posted by boot
Member since Oct 2014
2872 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:10 pm to
Looks about right.
Posted by 3rddownonthe8
Atlanta, GA
Member since Aug 2011
5212 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:18 pm to
My only question regarding the expectations of Auburn is the QB.

Now I know UGA has a ton of questions at the position.

But everyone is claiming how great JJ is , and he's an upgrade to NM. If this is true , why did the Guru that is CGM not make him the starter last year? There is no justification, especially considering the youth on defense and you needing the offense to score as much as possible.
This post was edited on 7/5/15 at 6:19 pm
Posted by redeye
Member since Aug 2013
8598 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:22 pm to
quote:

If Auburn wins less then 8 games this year it means the injury bug decided to take an extended stay on campus. I'm not sure they win the Natty, but there is a lot of talent on that Auburn sideline.


Unless they lose less then 8 games and then ESPN will say Gus isn't getting it done on the recruiting trail.

Just ask Chizik.
Posted by DuncanIdaho
Ouray, CO
Member since Feb 2013
14970 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:25 pm to
quote:

But everyone is claiming how great JJ is , and he's an upgrade to NM. If this is true , why did the Guru that is CGM not make him the starter last year? There is no justification, especially considering the youth on defense and you needing the offense to score as much as possible.

Because he was young and another year of seasoning would make him better in the long run? Why does any good QB not start from day 1?
Marshall was no slouch and moved that particular offense very well. The offense will look different next year.
Posted by lefty08
Not in Auburn or Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
5575 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:25 pm to
quote:

Morons. I wish I could be paid to make stupid posts.



FIFY
Posted by piggilicious
Member since Jan 2011
37295 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:27 pm to
quote:

Yes because either way they are right. If Auburn ends up winning the title, ESPN can point to their spring predictions. If Auburn ends up flopping, ESPN can point to their July prediction.


I get what you are saying but it's still crazy to me how they were who everyone was talking about a few months ago and then now blah. I'd personally rather them be picked to win it all and then get gouged right in the jugular.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
105390 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:52 pm to
quote:

everyone is claiming how great JJ is


How can someone be claiming him to be great with such a minimal resume. His potential is to be a top QB, but that is all at this moment.
Posted by Prof
Member since Jun 2013
42619 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:52 pm to
quote:

They also give Tennessee a better chance of winning the conference then Alabama.


That's because out of their system's top 20 Alabama plays:

5 LSU
6 Georgia
8 Texas A&M
9 Ole Miss
10 Arkansas
13 Tennessee

We play:
2 Alabama
6 Georgia
10 Arkansas
15 Oklahoma***

We play 3 SEC teams in their top 20 whereas Alabama plays 6 SEC teams. It's hardly illogical that the computer says we have slightly better odds at 13.4% to BAMA's 12.9% and FWIW that difference is statistically insignificant. UGA's odds are much greater than either at 25.5%.




***Oklahoma is one that doesn't effect the conference so doesn't really matter in terms of our odds of winning the conference.
This post was edited on 7/5/15 at 6:54 pm
Posted by 3rddownonthe8
Atlanta, GA
Member since Aug 2011
5212 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 7:06 pm to
These days a lot of times the best QB plays, especially in the spread offenses.

The comments all last year , was JJ was already better. I seriously doubt he is.

Just because he has a stronger arm doesn't mean he makes the reads better.

I think Auburn has some serious issues this year.
Posted by GeauxToBed
Covington, LA
Member since Mar 2015
6113 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 7:09 pm to
quote:

That's because out of their system's top 20 Alabama plays:

5 LSU
6 Georgia
8 Texas A&M
9 Ole Miss
10 Arkansas
13 Tennessee

We play:
2 Alabama
6 Georgia
10 Arkansas
15 Oklahoma***

We play 3 SEC teams in their top 20 whereas Alabama plays 6 SEC teams. It's hardly illogical that the computer says we have slightly better odds at 13.4% to BAMA's 12.9% and FWIW that difference is statistically insignificant. UGA's odds are much greater than either at 25.5%.


That actually makes a lot of sense.
Posted by DuncanIdaho
Ouray, CO
Member since Feb 2013
14970 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 7:17 pm to
You really don't know much about him do you? Or what you are calling a 'spread' offense? Marshall probably had the stronger arm of the two, it has nothing to do with that. Johnson is more of a pro-style QB and is a better pure passer, so it is about making the reads.
When you lead the country in rushing with a QB as one of your weapons, why try to fix something that wasn't broken? Again, the offense will not look like it did in 2013/2014.
Why did McCarron sit behind McElroy? Why did Tebow sit behind Leak? Why did Jason Campbell sit behind Daniel fricking Cobb?
Auburn may very well have issues, but I assure you it's not at the offensive skill positions.
This post was edited on 7/5/15 at 7:19 pm
Posted by rbWarEagle
Member since Nov 2009
49999 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 7:20 pm to
quote:

Just because he has a stronger arm doesn't mean he makes the reads better.

He has a stronger arm and he makes better reads, from most accounts and from the limited tape we have from last year. Marshall played because he was electric and could turn a game around with bigtime plays. Johnson is more of a pro-style, game manager type QB. Gus had the offense set up for Marshall last year. JJ's offense will be different. QB is one of the lesser concerns for us this year.
Posted by gatordmb89
Member since Dec 2009
30458 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 7:41 pm to
I have them at 10-11 wins. Way too much talent on defense for WM to work with to be bad on D. Combine that with Gus' offense and they should be really potent as a team.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
105390 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:00 pm to
quote:

3rddownonthe8


You may not be too smart but I admire your persistence.
Posted by higgs_boson
State College, PA
Member since Sep 2014
22454 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

These days a lot of times the best QB plays, especially in the spread offenses.

The comments all last year , was JJ was already better. I seriously doubt he is.

Just because he has a stronger arm doesn't mean he makes the reads better.



I think it was the right choice to go with Marshall last year. I do think Johnson will do a fine job, but I do not think he is going to blow anyone away with elusiveness like Marshall.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
105390 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

but I do not think he is going to blow anyone away with elusiveness like Marshall.


He's going to surprise so many this season. Definitely not Marshallesque but very capable. Just my hunch.
Posted by Smoke7024
Member since Jun 2010
22644 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:15 pm to
quote:

I think Auburn has some serious issues this year.


Because JJ didn't start over Marshall last year?
Posted by gatordmb89
Member since Dec 2009
30458 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:21 pm to
JJ is far more advanced as a passer than Marshall ever was.

Gus' offense with a capable passer who he can trust is going to be really dynamic. He keeps the sweep motion in the offense but runs a lot more of a vertical passing game when he has a QB who can push it down the field with accuracy.
Posted by Dawg in Beaumont
Athens
Member since Jan 2012
4494 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:22 pm to
I definitely think Auburn wins over seven games, but let's not act like they haven't lost four straight against BCS conference teams.
Posted by Tigerman97
Member since Jun 2014
10354 posts
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:30 pm to
We do know that last year is typically not a good indicator of this year. Will Auburn win 11 or 7 I have no idea, but acting like anyone knows for certain that we will 11 or 7 is idiotic.
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