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re: Does the SEC want the Sooners?
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:18 am to WeeWee
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:18 am to WeeWee
quote:
That is when the 4 16-team conferences form.
That is where the thinking may be incorrect. To expand a conference the additional school must create at least the average of the conference that are entering. The bigger a conference gets, the greater this number becomes yet many keep ignoring this simple concept in their realignment possibilities.
In short, think if these parameters are met before giving credence to any school being added.
#1 does the school being added generate at least the average in TV value?
Using the SEC, do the math…
a) 2014 SEC distribution = 456 Million
b) divide by team in conference = 14
c) Per team payout for year = 32.5 million
Any team that can not produce at least 32.5 Million in value has no real chance to expand the SEC
#2 Does the team added generate 50% of Alpha revenue?
Last year Alabama was the Alpha dog in revenue generation at 153 Million. To even be considered, a target school should generate at least half of that to even be discussed (153M * 50% = 77 M) so if you are discussing any team with less than 77M in revenue, you are not paying attention to a real candidate.
#3 Does the team added generate 75% of Alpha revenue?
Since just getting to the average really does not increase value for the other 14 teams you should really look at those who can generate 75% of Alpha revenue to really grow the revenue of all current members. Using Alabama as the Alpha you get 115M instead of 77M.
#4 You add in pairs, so not only 1 team must do this but you need another to pair with.
SEC got into TX with TAMU, adding Texas now just cannibalizes the TAMU addition. Maybe you add OU for the brand status and the new footprint but that negates adding OK State as their value as #16 is greatly marginalized. The beauty of adding a single state school in a high population state (see Rutgers, Maryland, and Missouri) is you get the monopoly even if you do not get the brand.
In short, when discussing any realignment you need to understand that adding teams means "special" math. Normally we view 1+1 = 2 but in realignment this looks more like 1+1 = 3 where the school added represents not a single school but a school and a half or 2 schools. Also, when adding schools the value increases for each additional school. Hence the threshold for a 12 team is lower than the 13th, which is lower than the 14th, which is lower than the 15th, which is lower than the 16th.
1
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:18 am to WeeWee
So 4 of the Big 6 in one Pod.
LOL
LOL
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:20 am to Mizzou4ever
quote:
What did I do? I think playing everyone in your conference is a better way of declaring a champion than having two divisions and a championship game. The championship game doesn't always feature the two best teams.
I understand what you are saying man, and I don't disagree. This mentality (again I don't disagree with it) though is out dated as the current landscape to have a CCG is important for the playoffs. Plus, I believe it brings extra revenue to the conference by adding that game.
If the deregulation passes then I suspect it will feature the 2 best teams. Do away with the divisions and let the 2 teams with the best record play in ATL. That evens out the East and West and makes it allows for each team to visit the other schools more than once every 12 years. It is bullshite that LSU doesn't get to visit Mizzou until 202something.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:21 am to RocketBallz
How does one make the leap from David Boren saying the B12 should have 12 teams to Oklahoma leaving the B12?
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:22 am to Chase Daniel
Doesn't really make a difference. UK still has a greater football tradition than Mizzou. The high point of Mizzou's program was two dudes eating cake.
This post was edited on 6/25/15 at 9:23 am
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:22 am to Cheese Grits
quote:
That is where the thinking may be incorrect. To expand a conference the additional school must create at least the average of the conference that are entering. The bigger a conference gets, the greater this number becomes yet many keep ignoring this simple concept in their realignment possibilities.
Looking at the populations of NC and Va tell me that adding those markets won't bring more money? Plus you are foregetting what the OU president said the other day that the tv contracts have a clause that each school must get the same revenue if they expand.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:23 am to Korin
quote:
2. UNC is joined at the hip with Duke
Then get both UNC and Duke.
-Lock up the research triangle and Charlotte markets.
-Get 2 excellent academic universities
-Easily lock it up as the best basketball conference with Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina.
-Add a fairly decent football school and another one to keep Vanderbilt company.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:24 am to RocketBallz
Only reason I'd want Oklahoma is because neither Virginia nor North Carolina teams will be available anytime soon.
That begs the question of who to take with the Sooners. I'm guessing that no school in an existing SEC state will ever gain entrance. From here on out, it's about expanding the SECN footprint and adding TV sets.
That begs the question of who to take with the Sooners. I'm guessing that no school in an existing SEC state will ever gain entrance. From here on out, it's about expanding the SECN footprint and adding TV sets.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:25 am to WeeWee
Preserve the Battle for the Boot?
Who gives a shite about that made up crap "rivalry"? There is no tradition there.
Who gives a shite about that made up crap "rivalry"? There is no tradition there.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:28 am to redeye
quote:
It's been a long time since Arkansas and OU were in the same conference
What the frick..... You mean like those two years pre WWI?
I'm nostalgic for our rivalry with Phillips College, too.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:34 am to WeeWee
quote:
When we got to 16 (its going to happen ESPN wants it) pods will be the only way to go.
I doubt this (see my post above this one)
Lets look at each conference in the P5
ACC, could stand to lose a team or 2 before adding value and teams remaining provide little value. ACC stopping at 12 made sense but to survive they had to make a deal with the devil to land Notre Dame. Long term I can see the ACC "helping" schools like Wake Forest to drop out.
B12, adding 2 more to get to 12 gets them to a CCG and an additional 1 - 3 million per school per year. Problem is, no real good candidates exist so they are picking below P5 type teams.
B1G, adding KU and MU for 14 and MD and RU for 16 made some sense, but that did not happen and the B1G at 14 probably now wishes they had stopped at 12
PAC, the PAC has a geographic moat protecting them so they really can stay at 12 from here till eternity. They benefit very little from now on as getting to 12 got them a CCG and that is a financial reason to go to 12 in the first place. Unless they add Texas, there is nothing out there that adds enough value to push them past 12. Anybody who says the PAC "must" get to 16 has no real understanding of how realignment works.
SEC, was happy at 12 and had no real desire to go past this. TAMU came on the market and they made sense. Mizzou was not happy with the B1G offer so they made the pair to 14. As the SEC has no desire the raid the ACC (and not adding VPI with TAMU should have alerted folks to this) scenario's with ACC schools are foolish at best.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:38 am to PeaRidgeWatash
quote:
Preserve the Battle for the Boot?
Who gives a shite about that made up crap "rivalry"? There is no tradition there.
I like it and I made the pods so
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:39 am to wmr
OU is the lap dog for the longhorns. When Texas says jump, OU says how far? Neither team can bring anything to the SEC that it doesn't already have. Need to expand to The Virginia and North Carolina area.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:39 am to Ericvol2096
quote:
So 4 of the Big 6 in one Pod.
Tn doesn't qualify as Big anymore so it is just 3.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:47 am to Cheese Grits
Cheese Grits is absolutely correct on this. Folks also need to remember that both the ACC and SEC are ESPN leagues. Meaning that any movement from one to the other only moves sand in the sanbox for them.
Also, OU isn't going anywhere until 2025. The XII has the same GoR issues that the ACC has. OU can bitch all they want to but they had their chance to SECEDE and they didn't. Missouri took their spot.
Game over for now.
Also, OU isn't going anywhere until 2025. The XII has the same GoR issues that the ACC has. OU can bitch all they want to but they had their chance to SECEDE and they didn't. Missouri took their spot.
Game over for now.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:49 am to Mizz-SEC
Am I the only one who wants to see a Power 6 with 12 teams in each conference?
Each conference has to play at least 9 other conference members.
At least 1 other game has to be a Power 6 team.
Final 2 are dealers choice, but you're rewarded for playing Power 6 over rent a wins...
Each conference has to play at least 9 other conference members.
At least 1 other game has to be a Power 6 team.
Final 2 are dealers choice, but you're rewarded for playing Power 6 over rent a wins...
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:49 am to Cheese Grits
quote:
B1G, adding KU and MU for 14 and MD and RU for 16 made some sense, but that did not happen and the B1G at 14 probably now wishes they had stopped at 12
Call me crazy, but I still think this is on the table...maybe not in next 10 years, but sometime in the future.
SEC without a buyout makes them prime for cherry picking.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:55 am to WeeWee
quote:
Looking at the populations of NC and Va tell me that adding those markets won't bring more money?
If you read the whole post, it is just a starting point. Still much would happen after a school was identified.
Lets say UVA brought 35 million in TV value (which they do not) and they generated 115 in annual sports revenue (which they do not) that does not mean the SEC will add them. On top of very high thresholds comes the chess game between the P5 commissioners. Would the SEC take UVA if it meant the B1G would take VPI? On a bigger view, would the SEC take UNC (signaling the end of the ACC) of it assured the B1G of landing Notre Dame?
Notre Dame clearly has the better football brand (and the more national audience) so you give your opponent a better school than you got. Does this make sense? Of course not, which is why the SEC protects the ACC and does not raid it.
quote:
OU president said the other day that the tv contracts have a clause that each school must get the same revenue if they expand.
Yes, but you are forgetting it is the networks writing the checks. ESPN could give 2 craps if team X or team Y succeeds, they are in business so only the money line matters. Lets say OU and OSU want to join the SEC and they must get the same revenue in expansion. ESPN looks at OU and says 35 million for OU is cash positive for ESPN, so they will write the check. Now ESPN looks at OSU and says that same 35 million for OSU puts them in hole by 20 million per year. Do you really think ESPN will do this? Equal revenue only works if the person writing the check agrees to it which is why the average number or 75% number is so important.
Slive said no to OSU in 2010 even tho OU passed at that time. Even the slowest coach can read between the lines. OU is cash positive but OSU is not when ESPN is deciding how big a check they will write. What is even more implied is the value of OSU is so much lees that even averaging them with OU still puts ESPN in the red instead of the green at the price necessary for SEC admission.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 9:59 am to UKWildcats
quote:
by UKWildcats
No. Virginia and North Carolina
This
Posted on 6/25/15 at 10:05 am to 5thTiger
quote:
SEC without a buyout makes them prime for cherry picking.
Do you really not understand this?
Costs 50 bucks to join the SEC and 0 bucks to leave. the lack of an exit fee and the lack of the GoR just shows the lack of need. Georgia Tech, Tulane, and Sewanee all left the SEC. None have experienced the sports success since. The higher the exit fee and the higher the GoR means that conference must "bribe or threaten" schools not to leave which indicates the desire to do so.
With no such threats the SEC demonstrates how strong they are as a group that no individual teams has a desire to leave. Lets say in a decade MU wanted to leave, SEC will happily let them go and replace them with another team who wants to be part of the group. History can always change, but based on the past history the SEC is the tights knit P5 conference. The money is a bonus but the core is strong.
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