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re: CFB Program Rankings: 2020
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:28 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:28 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
I mean when you are ranking programs that has a huge emphasis on historical performance, one bad season is not going to send a program freefalling down with the mid-majors. Nor should it.
They've had three bad seasons in a row.
1
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:29 pm to BHMKyle
Have you been doing this long enough to see someone other than LSU as the #2 SEC team?
Just curious if you had, and when they passed whomever used to be #2 (guessing Florida?)
Just curious if you had, and when they passed whomever used to be #2 (guessing Florida?)
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:37 pm to Leto II
quote:
No surprise there. Auburn has been drifting away from UGA the last decade +.
Yes, but Auburn's 2010 championship and Georgia's lack of any championships since 1980 majorly offsets how bad it would be otherwise. Georgia has been gaining, but these two programs have been very close together since the 1980s:
AFTER the 1950s: #18 Auburn; #24 Georgia
AFTER the 1960s: #17 Auburn; #27 Georgia
AFTER the 1970s: #16 Auburn; #22 Georgia
AFTER the 1980s: #14 Auburn; #17 Georgia
AFTER the 1990s: #14 Auburn; #16 Georgia
AFTER the 2000s: #15 Georgia; #16 Auburn
AFTER the 2010s: #15 Auburn; #16 Georgia
AFTER 2020: #14 Georgia; #17 Auburn
The gap had been closing for several decades and then finally around 2007 or 2008, Georgia finally surpassed Auburn.... only for Auburn's 2010 title to catapult them back in front for another decade.
Georgia finally caught up once again after this season's Top 10 finish and Auburn once again finishing unranked.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:43 pm to Chad4Bama
quote:
LSU was a couple spots higher than I would have figured and both Tennessee and Penn St a couple spots lower... although I could see Tennessee dropping like a rock. LSU seems to have assumed the historical SEC runner-up spot.
Like all metrics, it all depends on how you look at things. If you go off of just all-time AP Poll points, these programs rank like this:
#9 Penn State- 702
#10 Tennessee- 686
#11 LSU- 678
If you give a 3x ponit bonus for a National Title, LSU benefits greatly because they have 4 National Titles (1958, 2003, 2007, 2019) to Tennessee (1951, 1998) and Penn State (1982, 1986) only having two each. Each Championship adds an extra 50 points to each team's AP Poll points, so LSU nets an extra 100 points which puts them above.
But then when you start deducting points as the years go by, LSU benefits even more so since so many of their accomplishments have been more recent.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:46 pm to BHMKyle
Solid post. BHMKyle always brings game. He's the only reason not to nuke the entire UGA fanbase.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:48 pm to BHMKyle
Really solid info. Thanks. Looks accurate
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:48 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
10. Florida St.- 585
20. Texas A&M- 303 (up 2 spots)
Wow
Jimbo doing work here.
First he builds FSU up so much they can withstand the worst they been... ever.
Now he has A&M climbing the charts.
Time for an extension/raise!
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:49 pm to BHMKyle
Can you please do the formula over, but heavily weight the late 30s, early 40s, mid 50s, late 80s, 90s, 2012, and since Jimbo took over? Thanks.
This post was edited on 1/12/21 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:53 pm to BHMKyle
Bravo! 
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:53 pm to DawgsLife
quote:
I am wondering what the points change was for the teams. Seeing those numbers make me wonder how much change the points made for this season. Do you have the points changes handy?
Yes. Change in points just from this season compared to last season:
+65 Alabama
+20 Clemson
+19 Texas A&M
+17 Ohio State
+15 Notre Dame
+14 Georgia
+12 BYU
+10 Oklahoma
+8 Iowa
+7 N. Carolina
So Bama was awarded 75 new points for winning the National Title, but all of its Polling accomplishments between 1971-2010 also devalued slightly, so they lost 10 points from that persepective.... they netted out +65 though.
Here are the programs who lost the most points:
-10 Nebraska
-8 Michigan
-7 Penn St.
-7 Florida St.
-5 Miami
-5 Tennessee
-5 Auburn
-5 LSU
-4 USC
-4 Washington
All of those teams except USC finished unranked. So they did not add any new points and their accomplishments from 1971-2010 all lost a bit of value. USC was able to gain a few points by finishing in the Top 25, but it wasn't enough to offset their devaluations.
***Obviously there are some teams that were not mentioned. Coastal Carolina had its first ever AP Top 25 finish at #14, so they added 12 points. However I only keep up with the Top 40 or 50 programs so Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, Ball State, etc. weren't included.
This post was edited on 1/12/21 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:56 pm to TideSaint
quote:
They've had three bad seasons in a row.
Yep. So they've added no new points in any of those years.... and each year their accomplishments from 11-49 years out have devalued, causing them to lose a total of 21 points since 2017. But again, that's not enough to send them catapulting down the ranks.
They are still a program with 3 National Titles and the 7th most AP Top 5 finishes of all programs. It doesn't matter how many bad seasons they have, those accomplishments last for all time. They'll lose a bit of value with each passing year, but they still exist.
This post was edited on 1/12/21 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 1/12/21 at 1:08 pm to skrayper
quote:
Have you been doing this long enough to see someone other than LSU as the #2 SEC team?
I have the rankings at the conclusion of each decade. Keep in mind this does not value any accomplishments prior to the polling era which began in 1936. It's just too hard to rate any accomplishments prior to the polling era. Here's how the Top of the SEC ranked at the conclusion of each decade:
END OF THE 1950s
#6 Tennessee
#10 Georgia Tech
#12 LSU
#14 Alabama
#18 Auburn
#20 Ole Miss
END OF THE 1960s:
#4 Alabama
#10 Tennessee
#12 LSU
#14 Ole Miss
#17 Auburn
#27 Georgia
END OF THE 1970s:
#2 Alabama
#9 Tennessee
#11 LSU
#16 Auburn
#19 Ole Miss
#22 Georgia
END OF THE 1980s:
#3 Alabama
#13 Tennessee
#14 Auburn
#15 LSU
#17 Georgia
#22 Ole Miss
END OF THE 1990s:
#1 Alabama
#10 Tennessee
#14 Auburn
#15 Florida
#16 Georgia
#17 LSU
END OF THE 2000s:
#2 Alabama
#11 Florida
#12 Tennessee
#13 LSU
#15 Georgia
#16 Auburn
Alabama has remained at the top since the 1960s, but its amazing how the #2 - #6 teams in the SEC have almost completley flip-flopped since the end of the 1990s.
Tennessee went from #2 in the league and is likely a few seasons away from being passed by Auburn and being #6.
LSU went from the bottom of the Big 6 in 1999 now up to #2 in the leauge, behind only Bama.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 1:38 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
10. Florida St.- 585
11. Miami- 582
12. Florida- 581
Neck and neck and neck.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 1:42 pm to TailbackU
quote:
Solid post. BHMKyle always brings game. He's the only reason not to nuke the entire UGA fanbase.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 1:44 pm to BHMKyle
very good! Thanks, Kyle! We appreciate all the hard work you put into this, and I agree, it's about as good if not better than any other formula that's out there.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 1:46 pm to BHMKyle
I may put Boise state in the top 25
Posted on 1/12/21 at 1:46 pm to BHMKyle
Should be a stickied thread until the annual refresh IMO.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 1:51 pm to BHMKyle
Probably the best formula I’ve seen. Great work.
This post was edited on 1/12/21 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 1/12/21 at 3:13 pm to BHMKyle
Awesome work.
Where does UNC slot in your formula? Trying to see if Mack could get us in top 25 before he retires.
Where does UNC slot in your formula? Trying to see if Mack could get us in top 25 before he retires.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 4:15 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Can you please do the formula over, but heavily weight the late 30s, early 40s, mid 50s, late 80s, 90s, 2012, and since Jimbo took over? Thanks.
Are you looking for dates and #’s to put on new cups, T-Shirts, and stadium walls?
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