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Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:10 am to Jeff
quote:
Anything less than that, LSU will stay ahead of Arky
I see absolutely zero way that the voters, who make up 2/3 of the BCS, keep LSU ahead of Arkansas the day after Arkansas hypothetically wins at LSU.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:15 am to bigpapamac
Exactly.
'IF' LSU loses to Arkansas in the final week of the regular season - READ MY TEXT - "LSU will NOT play for the SEC Champ and they will NOT play for a BCS NC." If LSU loses to arky, Bama plays in the SEC Champ game based on those crazy rules with the BCS.
It sucks, but losing that late in the season is the nail in the coffin for ANY team.
'IF' LSU loses to Arkansas in the final week of the regular season - READ MY TEXT - "LSU will NOT play for the SEC Champ and they will NOT play for a BCS NC." If LSU loses to arky, Bama plays in the SEC Champ game based on those crazy rules with the BCS.
It sucks, but losing that late in the season is the nail in the coffin for ANY team.
This post was edited on 11/15/11 at 11:17 am
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:22 am to DoubleDown
So LSU drops behind Bama even though they beat Bama in Tuscaloosa? 
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:31 am to Jeff
quote:
So LSU drops behind Bama even though they beat Bama in Tuscaloosa?
You're very last post just said that LSU wouldn't drop below Arkansas even though Arkansas would've just beaten LSU in Baton Rouge. How is that different? It'd be a 3-way tie, somebody is going to be below somebody they beat. That's how it works.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:35 am to bigpapamac
quote:
You're very last post just said that LSU wouldn't drop below Arkansas even though Arkansas would've just beaten LSU in Baton Rouge. How is that different? It'd be a 3-way tie, somebody is going to be below somebody they beat. That's how it works.
Yep. And a bama loss to LSU by 3 in overtime > LSU loss to Arky at home on last week of regular season.
That is how I would view it and I think enough voters would agree in both polls to have Bama ahead of LSU.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:37 am to bigpapamac
quote:
That's how it works.
That's why you can't make the argument that just because Arky beats them they automatically move ahead of LSU. They all would have beaten each other so someone has to be behind someone they beat. And that would be Arky, since their only good victory would be against LSU, and they got smoked by Bama. LSU has good victories against Oregon and Bama, both of whom would be ranked higher than Arky, and LSU never struggled with anyone but Bama. Arky struggled with A&M, Ole Miss and Vandy.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:38 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
I'd agree with that. Really for the LSU fan though, if they lose to Arkansas they're done because there's no way that Arkanasas doesn't move ahead of them at that point. As far as LSU is concerned, it doesn't matter where Alabama is at that point.
If you really think that the voters would keep LSU ahead of Arkansas the day after (or I guess two days after since the game is on Friday) Arkansas beat LSU on the road at LSU, then by all means go ahead and keep on living in your fantasy world.
quote:
Jeff
If you really think that the voters would keep LSU ahead of Arkansas the day after (or I guess two days after since the game is on Friday) Arkansas beat LSU on the road at LSU, then by all means go ahead and keep on living in your fantasy world.
This post was edited on 11/15/11 at 11:40 am
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:39 am to Jeff
I'll just continue to hope Okie Lite goes down to Okie and we get a rematch with LSU.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:42 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
That is how I would view it and I think enough voters would agree in both polls to have Bama ahead of LSU.
It doesn't matter if Bama is ahead of LSU. All LSU has to do is stay ahead of Arky. The SECCG formula will put them in Atlanta even if they drop below Bama. (Head to head for the two SEC teams highest in the BCS)
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:44 am to bigpapamac
If LSU loses a close game at home to Arkansas there are going to be very surprised people on here....If LSU loses say, 31-28 or 28-24 I would be willing to bet LSU still goes to Atlanta.
LSU's computer ranking will be higher and the human votes will be split up. With the human votes percentages matter.....Again, go read up on how the formula is set up.
I know I keep linking this but it's the best explanation I've seen for how the BCS works.
LINK
LSU's computer ranking will be higher and the human votes will be split up. With the human votes percentages matter.....Again, go read up on how the formula is set up.
quote:
This is where it gets hairy. The BCS is compiled of the human polls and the computer polls. In the human polls, you get a percentage based on how many points you received divided by the total points possible. For example, in the Coaches’ poll, 1475 points are possible. All 1st place points (25) gives you 1475 points, or a 1.000 percentage. All 2nd place points results in 1416 points, or a .9600 percentage. The same is true of the Harris poll, except their total is 2875. For the computers, you drop the highest and lowest single rating, and then you get points based on the remaining 4 computers. 25 points for 1st down to 1 point for 25th. If your computer poll numbers are 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, and 3, you would drop the 1 and the 3, and get 25+25+24+24 for a score of 98 out of 100, or a .980. You then add all three percentages (Harris, Coaches, and Computer) and divide by 3 for your BCS ranking.
I know I keep linking this but it's the best explanation I've seen for how the BCS works.
LINK
This post was edited on 11/15/11 at 11:45 am
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:47 am to bigpapamac
quote:
If you really think that the voters would keep LSU ahead of Arkansas the day after (or I guess two days after since the game is on Friday) Arkansas beat LSU on the road at LSU, then by all means go ahead and keep on living in your fantasy world.
You are in the fantasy world. You would be right if Bama and Oregon weren't still between LSU and Arky. But they are, and the voters will have a hard time dropping LSU behind those two teams they beat, and dropping them also behind Arky.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:48 am to noladan
I completely understand how the BCS works. And Arkansas would have an advantage over LSU in 2/3 of it, percentages or not it's still an advantage in 2/3 of the ranking system. Not to mention that Arkansas would gain so much ground on LSU in the computers by virtue of a road win at an undefeated, top-ranked team that there's zero chance the computers would be LSU's savior in keeping them ahead of Arkansas.
And for the record, I think this is all a moot point because I think LSU will beat Arkansas. It's just fun to discuss, certainly more fun than work
And for the record, I think this is all a moot point because I think LSU will beat Arkansas. It's just fun to discuss, certainly more fun than work
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:54 am to bigpapamac
quote:
And Arkansas would have an advantage over LSU in 2/3 of it
That's where your mistake is, assuming the voters will drop LSU behind Bama, Oregon and Arky, when they would have beaten two of those teams. The ONLY way LSU drops behind them all would be for Arky to blow LSU out. Anything less than that, and LSU would still stay ahead of Arky due to their overall bodies of work.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:55 am to bigpapamac
quote:
And for the record, I think this is all a moot point because I think LSU will beat Arkansas. It's just fun to discuss, certainly more fun than work
I agree. I keep telling myself that when LSU beats Arkansas I'm going to kick myself for spending time studying all the different scenarios.
But, the thing about the computers is that LSU will still be ranked #1 or #2 even after a loss to Arky (with possibly OK. St or Oklahoma #1)....In my opinion the human votes will be split up and the final vote will be very close. That's why the computers will be decisive. If Oregon continues to win (meaning they beat USC, Cal and the PAC 12 championship) then there will be some voters that keep them ahead of Arkansas. We will be talking percentages in the human polls.
But like you said, we shall see. It will be interesting if it comes to it.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:55 am to Jeff
It's so funny how this keeps getting brought up. It's almost like Bama and Arkansas fans think if they talk about it enough and bring it up so many times, then they can make this situation happen and wish it into existance.
The fact is LSU is one of only two teams in control of their destiny and we have a special team this year. The chances of Arkansas coming into DV and playing their absolute best game of the season after they have been a terrible road team this year and LSU playing their worst I would say is not likely. Not saying it is not possible but not likely to happen.
This is not the same LSU team of the past 4 years that Arky has given so many problems too. Anything can happen but I would just ask all these fans who are begging and hoping against hope that this scenerio plays out I would ask one question: do you really feel that confident this scenerio plays out like this? I mean you keep on talking about it like it has already happened.
The fact is LSU is one of only two teams in control of their destiny and we have a special team this year. The chances of Arkansas coming into DV and playing their absolute best game of the season after they have been a terrible road team this year and LSU playing their worst I would say is not likely. Not saying it is not possible but not likely to happen.
This is not the same LSU team of the past 4 years that Arky has given so many problems too. Anything can happen but I would just ask all these fans who are begging and hoping against hope that this scenerio plays out I would ask one question: do you really feel that confident this scenerio plays out like this? I mean you keep on talking about it like it has already happened.
This post was edited on 11/15/11 at 11:57 am
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:59 am to Jeff
So you're saying that the voters wouldn't bump Arkansas ahead of Oklahoma after Arkansas won at the #1 team in the country? You're insane. People change votes all the time. Arkansas would immediately jump OU and Oregon and it that point it's just the 3 SEC west schools. And again, there's zero shot of Arkansas being voted behind LSU right after they win at LSU. How about a two-week ban bet? If Arkansas beats LSU but doesn't move ahead of them in the polls, you win.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:59 am to bigpapamac
quote:
I see absolutely zero way that the voters, who make up 2/3 of the BCS, keep LSU ahead of Arkansas the day after Arkansas hypothetically wins at LSU.
I can see voters pulling their hair out trying to fill out that ballot
bama beat ark
ark beat lsu
lsu beat bama
all 11-1.
there is no good answer to how you rank them. to say there is "zero" way lsu would remain ahead of ark is asinine.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 12:00 pm to bigbowe80
quote:
It's so funny how this keeps getting brought up. It's almost like Bama and Arkansas fans think if they talk about it enough and bring it up so many times, then they can make this situation happen and wish it into existance.
I'd assume this isn't directed at me?
Posted on 11/15/11 at 12:07 pm to coonarse
LSU & BAMA would both have 1 loss records, LSU would have the tie breaker since they won the head to head vs BAMA; LSU still goes to the SECCG.
Not if LSU drops below Arkansas in the polls. Then Bama would go. Would LSU drop behind Arkansas if they lose to them at home? I guess it depends on how the game goes. I think 1 loss by LSU would make things very interesting. I think if LSU loses the SECCG, they would probably still go to the BCSCG because what 2 teams would you put in ahead of them? It would be hard to put in Oregon or Bama instead of LSU, since they beat them.
Not if LSU drops below Arkansas in the polls. Then Bama would go. Would LSU drop behind Arkansas if they lose to them at home? I guess it depends on how the game goes. I think 1 loss by LSU would make things very interesting. I think if LSU loses the SECCG, they would probably still go to the BCSCG because what 2 teams would you put in ahead of them? It would be hard to put in Oregon or Bama instead of LSU, since they beat them.
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