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[Baseball] Some data going into the weekend
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 5/12/16 at 2:43 pm
Florida State lost to Jacksonville and Florida Gulf Coast in the midweek. The Seminoles' RPI dropped from 7 to 14. I still think they are a national seed, but they probably need to go 3-3 against Duke and Miami to finish things up.
The three best road teams in the country - Miami, Florida and Mississippi State. Miami and Florida are locks for national seed. Mississippi State can probably lock it up this weekend on the Plains.
Florida State's fall has been taken advantage of by Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State - all who have moved up. State is up to 8th in the current RPI.
LSU is in the "should host" category. They need to win, and it probably wouldn't hurt if Vanderbilt dropped this weekend's series against Florida. LSU has played a much tougher schedule, so I think the Tigers get the nod if there isn't a lot of difference.
Conference USA is on the line this weekend. Rice and Southern Miss are tied for first and Florida Atlantic is a game back. USM has tiebreaker over Rice and FAU has it over USM. FAU and Rice play this weekend in Houston. If FAU wins the series, it just might open tup a host spot. The Owls, however are 3-1 against Miami and Mississippi State and a series win at Rice will improve a 31 RPI.
Texas Tech is four games up in the Big 12. They have the weekend off and play at West Virginia next week. I believe the Red Raiders have a national seed locked at this point. Oklahoma State and TCU have outside shots at hosting.
The Pac 12 is just really confusing. 9th place is just 3 games back of the lead. Washington and Utah are tied for the lead - Utah is 18-24 overall. Arizona is a half game back. Arizona State is 2 games back. Both of those teams are on fire as of late. The Pac 12 will get a host spot - and it will be the champion, unless its Utah.
The Big Ten is a mess as well. Indiana with their #97 RPI is the current leader. Both Michigan and Minnesota have respectable RPIs and are a half game back. The Big Ten champion will get a host spot, provided its Michigan or Minnesota.
UC Santa Barbara has fallen from 8th in the RPI to 24th in just 10 days. What looked like a possible national seed is on the bubble for hosting. They are three games back of Fullerton and still have to play the Titans next week.
Who could benefit from this UCSB flame out? One of the Big 12 teams for sure, but don't count out Tulane. The Greenies have a 33-14 record and a top 25 RPI. Geographically, they probably need Southern Miss or LSU to falter at the end.
Coastal Carolina looks like a host, and UNC Wilmington is another team that could sneak into a host spot. Two weeks until Hoover, my friends.
The three best road teams in the country - Miami, Florida and Mississippi State. Miami and Florida are locks for national seed. Mississippi State can probably lock it up this weekend on the Plains.
Florida State's fall has been taken advantage of by Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State - all who have moved up. State is up to 8th in the current RPI.
LSU is in the "should host" category. They need to win, and it probably wouldn't hurt if Vanderbilt dropped this weekend's series against Florida. LSU has played a much tougher schedule, so I think the Tigers get the nod if there isn't a lot of difference.
Conference USA is on the line this weekend. Rice and Southern Miss are tied for first and Florida Atlantic is a game back. USM has tiebreaker over Rice and FAU has it over USM. FAU and Rice play this weekend in Houston. If FAU wins the series, it just might open tup a host spot. The Owls, however are 3-1 against Miami and Mississippi State and a series win at Rice will improve a 31 RPI.
Texas Tech is four games up in the Big 12. They have the weekend off and play at West Virginia next week. I believe the Red Raiders have a national seed locked at this point. Oklahoma State and TCU have outside shots at hosting.
The Pac 12 is just really confusing. 9th place is just 3 games back of the lead. Washington and Utah are tied for the lead - Utah is 18-24 overall. Arizona is a half game back. Arizona State is 2 games back. Both of those teams are on fire as of late. The Pac 12 will get a host spot - and it will be the champion, unless its Utah.
The Big Ten is a mess as well. Indiana with their #97 RPI is the current leader. Both Michigan and Minnesota have respectable RPIs and are a half game back. The Big Ten champion will get a host spot, provided its Michigan or Minnesota.
UC Santa Barbara has fallen from 8th in the RPI to 24th in just 10 days. What looked like a possible national seed is on the bubble for hosting. They are three games back of Fullerton and still have to play the Titans next week.
Who could benefit from this UCSB flame out? One of the Big 12 teams for sure, but don't count out Tulane. The Greenies have a 33-14 record and a top 25 RPI. Geographically, they probably need Southern Miss or LSU to falter at the end.
Coastal Carolina looks like a host, and UNC Wilmington is another team that could sneak into a host spot. Two weeks until Hoover, my friends.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 3:01 pm to atlgamecockman
Sorry reading is hard for you. A lot of good stuff there.
I think it funny Tech is basically a lock for a national seed, but if they were in the SEC they wouldn't even be considered.
I think it funny Tech is basically a lock for a national seed, but if they were in the SEC they wouldn't even be considered.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 3:05 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
I think it funny Tech is basically a lock for a national seed, but if they were in the SEC they wouldn't even be considered.
Probably. But they are likely to win a power conference by 5 games. I would put them as the most likely national seed to be upset in a regional (looking at you, Arkansas), but hard not to imagine they dont pull the #7 or #8 seed overall.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 3:10 pm to anc
A 3 bid conference. Really it's the ACC & SEC, a big gap, & then everyone else.
They'd be 7th in the SEC in wins vs top 50 & RPI.
They'd be 7th in the SEC in wins vs top 50 & RPI.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 3:24 pm to atlgamecockman
LSU has dropped too many sec series
They need 2/3 at Tenn
I don't see more than 1/3 against Fla unless Fla tanks it that weekend if they already have sec title in hand
Would be wise to stay in tourney long term
Too much competition in SEC this year, I could see LSU left out of hosting
They need 2/3 at Tenn
I don't see more than 1/3 against Fla unless Fla tanks it that weekend if they already have sec title in hand
Would be wise to stay in tourney long term
Too much competition in SEC this year, I could see LSU left out of hosting
Posted on 5/12/16 at 3:41 pm to anc
Auburn needs to take 5 out of last 6 SEC games to make the post season. LSU fans needs to cheer for the tigers against State this weekend and @ Vandy next.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 4:35 pm to JamalSanders
lsu and tulane get regionals
Posted on 5/12/16 at 4:39 pm to anc
i like lsu getting a regional because of the revenue
Posted on 5/12/16 at 4:46 pm to JamalSanders
quote:
Auburn needs to take 5 out of last 6 SEC games to make the post season. LSU fans needs to cheer for the tigers against State this weekend and @ Vandy next.
So you'll be under .500 with a high RPI still. Not a chance. You'll need to win the SECT.
Posted on 5/13/16 at 8:22 am to Farmer1906
quote:
o you'll be under .500 with a high RPI still. Not a chance. You'll need to win the SECT.
We would be .500 and hot near the end of the season. Coupled with coming from the SEC, that gives us a chance. Auburn doesn't have enough pitchers to win the tournament. We only have 7 healthy arms and that is what has killed us all year.
Posted on 5/13/16 at 8:32 am to anc
LSU is 4-4 in sec series
The wins are against Auburn, Mizzou, and Ark - all not very good.
The only decent series win is Vandy.
I don't think that gets LSU a host site no matter the money they shell out.
Beating Tenn and Fla is a must to get host site.
The wins are against Auburn, Mizzou, and Ark - all not very good.
The only decent series win is Vandy.
I don't think that gets LSU a host site no matter the money they shell out.
Beating Tenn and Fla is a must to get host site.
Posted on 5/13/16 at 9:52 am to SAINTS0321
quote:LSU might end up hosting, but it won't be because of money. For all the shite the committee takes (most of it deserved), they have pretty much stopped considering bids (as long as they meet the minimums) when selecting host sites. They still consider travel expenses, but the days of buying a regional are pretty much gone.
i like lsu getting a regional because of the revenue
Posted on 5/13/16 at 9:57 am to twk
quote:
LSU might end up hosting, but it won't be because of money. For all the shite the committee takes (most of it deserved), they have pretty much stopped considering bids (as long as they meet the minimums) when selecting host sites. They still consider travel expenses, but the days of buying a regional are pretty much gone.
This.
I see people say otherwise constantly on here, but it just isn't true. Once you meet the minimum, it isn't considered unless everything else is equal (it never is).
Posted on 5/13/16 at 10:10 am to nicholastiger
No they don't...
If they go 3-3 the next two weeks, it really will depend on what Ole Miss and Vandy do. LSU has a very strong rpi and SOS and this can carry them to a host spot.
The committee has shown money doesn't matter. They want to spread the wealth, which is why the SEC will probably only get 5 regionals. The west teams will probably get 2 between Fullerton, Arizona, UCSB, and Washington.
5 SEC (Florida, A&M, SC, Miss St, LSU/Ole Miss/Vandy)
5 ACC (Miami, Louisville, FSU, NC State, Virginia)
2 West
Texas Tech
Big 10 Champ Michigan/Minnesota (if someone else wins, big 10 won't have a host)
That's 14 of the 16 right now. Then you have Southern Miss, Rice, TCU, Tulane, Coastal Carolina, Oklahoma St fighting for the last 2 spots.
If I'm a betting man, winner of CUSA will get at least one. The last spot is up to those other teams.
I know this, I would be a pissed off host team if I get Vandy or LSU as a number 2 in my regional. I'm looking at you Big 10 and Washington.
If they go 3-3 the next two weeks, it really will depend on what Ole Miss and Vandy do. LSU has a very strong rpi and SOS and this can carry them to a host spot.
The committee has shown money doesn't matter. They want to spread the wealth, which is why the SEC will probably only get 5 regionals. The west teams will probably get 2 between Fullerton, Arizona, UCSB, and Washington.
5 SEC (Florida, A&M, SC, Miss St, LSU/Ole Miss/Vandy)
5 ACC (Miami, Louisville, FSU, NC State, Virginia)
2 West
Texas Tech
Big 10 Champ Michigan/Minnesota (if someone else wins, big 10 won't have a host)
That's 14 of the 16 right now. Then you have Southern Miss, Rice, TCU, Tulane, Coastal Carolina, Oklahoma St fighting for the last 2 spots.
If I'm a betting man, winner of CUSA will get at least one. The last spot is up to those other teams.
I know this, I would be a pissed off host team if I get Vandy or LSU as a number 2 in my regional. I'm looking at you Big 10 and Washington.
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