re: Another Early Heisman Prediction Thread

Braxton Miller
Brett Hundley
Marcus Mariota
Todd Gurley
Jameis Winston
Bryce Petty
Melvin Gordon

Just to name a few candidates. Seeing as repeating is damn near impossible, I think Mariota or Miller. Miller will put up monster numbers in Urban's system going against an easier schedule than most.

1) Leonard Fournette









2) everyone else

/thread

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I think this is unlikely. Do you really think state will be a 10 win team? I know tebow won with a bunch of losses but to do that you have to clearly, far and away be the best player in America.

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Tebow won at 9-3. RG3 won at 9-3.

Tebow stats that year(as a trSO):
210 rushes 895yds 23TD 4.26AVG
234-350(66.9%) 3286yds 32TD 6INT
Tebow played 560 of 586 total plays(95.56%). He was only out for 26 plays all year.

RG3 stats that year(as a rsJR):
179 rushes 699yds 10TD 3.91AVG
291-402(72.4%) 4293yds 37TD 6INT
RG3 played 581 of 608 total plays(95.55%). He was only out of the game for 27 plays all year.

Dak played 401 of 620 total plays(64.68%). He split a lot of time with Tyler Russell and missed basically 3 full games with injury. He also sat out the entire 4th quarter of several non conference games. He took about 30.88% less of his team's total snaps than RG3 and Tebow did.

Dak stats last year:
134 rushes 829yds 13TD 6.19AVG
156-267(58.4%) 1940yds 10TD 7INT
2rec 53yds 2TD

Extrapolated over a "full season" if he simply stays the same:
175 rushes 1085yds 17TD 6.19AVG
204-349(58.4%) 2539yds 13TD 9INT
3rec 69yds 3TD

Dak is in the conversation as a runner. His completion percentage needs to improve another 7-8%, he needs to cut down on the INTs, and he needs a couple of receivers to really, really step up and help him out. He's got to throw for about 3500 next year and account for alot more TDs through the air to have a legitimate chance. Also got to have a moment worthy of the Heisman in a big game -- which essentially means we've got to upset at least one of the big boys. All of that seems obtainable -- but it's alot to ask and certainly should go beyond any "expectation".

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3rec 69yds 3TD

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Don't see this happening.

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He's got to throw for about 3500 next year

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I just don't see us throwing it enough for this to happen.

We would need to go probably 11-1 for Dak to make it to New York.

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Don't see this happening.

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It happened twice this year -- both times for TDs. We're going to run that play with Lewis a couple of times next year for sure until someone proves they can stop it...

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I just don't see us throwing it enough for this to happen.

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Will depend on the development of the receivers and his continued development as a passer. 3500 yards is an average of 270ypg through the air -- a number Dak was around in 3 of his last 4 starts. The one that he wasn't close(aTm), Russell essentially took 14 throws away from him.

We averaged 33.0 throws per game this year -- a number inflated by Russell but deflated by our early lack of trust in Dak and Damien's pt being largely run-first. So, cancel those out, and I think we throw about 30-35 times per game again this year. Dak was at 7.3 yards/attempt last year(12.44 yards per completion). If he simply gets his completion percentage up another 6-8%, while throwing the same length passes and staying in for 95ish% of overall snaps, that's between 258 and 266 completions for a total of between 3205 and 3309 yards. If he can tack on an extra yard per completion(where the receivers come in), that gets us to about 3500 yards...

It's asking alot -- and certainly should not be expected. But it not is totally outside the realm of possibility either.

When I said Dak could have a slim chance I meant that Dak was a decent quarterback (and a senior), therefore giving him a good spot. I did not mean that the entire team would do well.

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If MSU's offense is that good, I'm not joking when I say this, they'd be a legit contender to win the SEC west.

I seriously doubt that ends up happening.

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That's the thing -- our offense was close to being "that good" in stretches last year when Dak was playing, especially toward the end of the year as our receivers actually gained some experience and quit dropping the damn ball in key situations.

We began last year with 1 total start among our receiving corps and a rsSO QB who had never started in the SEC in a finesse hybrid offense nowhere close to fitting his skill set. We bring back every single WR and TE next year, with only dual threat QBs on roster, and a full off-season of shaping the offense to the Tebowfense to fit Dak(nevermind that Dak missed all last spring with injury)...

We bring back 4 guys with a season+ worth of starting experience on the OL and a 5th that played extensively as a true freshman as a backup. We have 3-year starters coming back at center and left tackle.

We bring back all of our RBs besides Perkins -- who was horribly misused for us and more of a TFL liability than a between the tackles bruiser that we've excelled with in the past. We have 2 guys currently with another coming in that could legitimately step up and be 1000 yard plus RBs.

I'm not saying that MSU's offense is going to be elite next year -- but it doesn't take much of a stretch to see it being very, very good and by far the best we've had under Mullen.

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Braxton Miller
Brett Hundley
Marcus Mariota
Todd Gurley
Jameis Winston
Bryce Petty
Melvin Gordon

Just to name a few candidates. Seeing as repeating is damn near impossible, I think Mariota or Miller. Miller will put up monster numbers in Urban's system going against an easier schedule than most.

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This is a good list. I doubt Winston will repeat but I do see him going to the ceremony again. Braxton Miller has harder schedule this year. He facing the tougher end of the Big 10 and have Virginia Tech/Cincinnati as OOC. So he will be facing higher rated defenses in general.

I'm going to go with Mariota and Petty as my favorites.

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No chance a 7-9 win State team has a Heisman winner

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if a program like Baylor can do it with a relatively mediocre season, then someone like State can as well.... but it'll take a generational great like a RG3 to pull it off.

Also, BU had great WRs like Kendall Wright.... Dak's got upper level SunBelt WRs. that's not gonna get it done.