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re: Alabama Schedule Thread
Posted on 1/17/16 at 12:59 am to Kcoyote
Posted on 1/17/16 at 12:59 am to Kcoyote
quote:
Hint: That number is still better than any team in NCAA history.
Hint: I've never said otherwise.
I've said what you're calculating isn't the winning percentage, which is a fact.
I've also said the numbers are skewed, which is a fact. Bama's opponents played 45 more game this year than they did in 2011 and 34 more than they did in 2012. So, thanks for proving my point by posting those little factoids you think irk me so much.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 1:02 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
Dude football season is over. It's basketball season.
That's the type of thinking that causes you to lose 5 in a row (and counting) instead of 4 NCs in 7 years.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 1:03 am to RB10
Why do you think this is so important to you?
Posted on 1/17/16 at 1:03 am to RB10
quote:
I've also said the numbers are skewed, which is a fact. Bama's opponents played 45 more game this year than they did in 2011 and 34 more than they did in 2012. So, thanks for proving my point by posting those little factoids you think irk me so much.
Wait, they're skewed even when I've corrected by removing the Clemson game, and by taking out head-to-head for every team AND used a percentage which negates the amount of games played by the pure basis of what a percentage is?
Jesus man. They're not skewed. I'm correcting for everything you're throwing at me.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 1:08 am to Kcoyote
quote:
Jesus man. They're not skewed. I'm correcting for everything you're throwing at me.
You're correcting nothing. Its cute you think you are though.
quote:
percentage which negates the amount of games played by the pure basis of what a percentage is?
So you're doing all this without understanding the impact number of games played has on winning percentage?
Lulz
This post was edited on 1/17/16 at 1:11 am
Posted on 1/17/16 at 1:26 am to RB10
And you don't understand that making the winning percentage worse for the four teams I posted won't make the numbers that were already below 68 or 71% or 73% any closer to that mark?
Again, the effects when you're talking about 150-200 game averages would be minimal if you add back in the head-to-head losses and wins with respect to how it differs from the goal average of 68%. In the case of a team like 2007 LSU, it would probably make the distance wider.
Again, the effects when you're talking about 150-200 game averages would be minimal if you add back in the head-to-head losses and wins with respect to how it differs from the goal average of 68%. In the case of a team like 2007 LSU, it would probably make the distance wider.
This post was edited on 1/17/16 at 1:27 am
Posted on 1/17/16 at 1:27 am to RB10
quote:
There is no rationale for removing losses when calculating winning percentage.
It throws the numbers off when you remove losses. How do you people not grasp that?
Because removing those numbers rewards winning. We're talking about a single metric, not a holistic discussion of a team's quality, so building in a method of doing that makes sense. It's easy to demonstrate. Let's say you -- we'll call you "LSU" -- have two games. Game one, LSU plays a 14-1 Bama. The other, LSU plays a 6-6 Vandy. You win one, lose one (doesn't matter which opponent.) So your opponents have a 20-7 record. 20/27 = 74%. Solid, right? So let's go with the formula by removing losses suffered at your hands. One loss (say, to us) brings the new total to 20 wins, 6 losses. 20/26 = .769. 77%. Even better, right?
Now let's say you go undefeated. Your unadjusted total is the same, obviously. 20 wins, 7 losses. 20/27 = 74%. But look...by this metric, an unbeaten LSU that took down Bama and slapped Vandy all over the field looks exactly like an LSU that managed to beat Bama but suffered a crushing upset against Vandy.
So, instead, you remove losses suffered at your hands. 14-1 becomes 14-0. 6-6 becomes 6-5. Total: 20-5. Don't even need to use a calculator to know that 20/25 = 80%. Now your undefeated LSU is rightly rewarded in this metric. Yes, you could go look at LSU's record independently. You should, in fact. But we're discussing LSU's performance relative to other teams, not LSU's performance in itself. So removing that loss is essentially an algorithmic method of reward success without cross-referencing other statistics. Do you follow?
Posted on 1/17/16 at 1:32 am to randomways
quote:
That don't make bamer look bad as they oughta!
Posted on 1/17/16 at 1:51 am to RB10
For the sake of argument though let's do it with a random team like 2013 FSU, and let's do just straight up opponent's win percentage including FSU.
So we can add back in 14 losses for FSU.
FSU drops to 52%, dropping from 56%.
Alabama drops from 73% to 68%, a difference of about 1% in terms of comparing the two.
So taking an extreme example like 2011 Alabama, which played only 13 games, they drop from 65.7% to 61.2%. Again the difference in the percentage drop is about 1% (comparing 73 to 68 vs. 65.7 to 61.2).
Still not close, still more than likely not relevant.
So we can add back in 14 losses for FSU.
FSU drops to 52%, dropping from 56%.
Alabama drops from 73% to 68%, a difference of about 1% in terms of comparing the two.
So taking an extreme example like 2011 Alabama, which played only 13 games, they drop from 65.7% to 61.2%. Again the difference in the percentage drop is about 1% (comparing 73 to 68 vs. 65.7 to 61.2).
Still not close, still more than likely not relevant.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 7:11 am to Kcoyote
OP is right, Bama's season was very special.
The proof is within Bama's schedule.
Part of post I made the other day below:
Regular Season
Wisconsin - 10-3
Mid Tennessee - 7-6
Ole Miss - 10-3
ULM - 2-11 (Only team with losing record)
Georgia - 10-3
Arkansas - 8-5
Texas A&M - 8-5
Tennessee - 9-5
LSU - 9-3 (Should be a 10 win team)
Miss St. - 9-4
Charleston So - 10-2
Auburn - 7-6
Post Season
Florida - 10-4
Michigan St. - 12-2
Clemson - 14-1
Without Bama loss added to record's
10-2
7-5
9-3
2-10 (Only team with losing record)
10-2
8-4
8-4
9-4
9-2 (Should be a 10 win team)
9-3
10-1
7-5
Post Season
10-3
12-1
14-0
That's a bunch of solid teams beaten above!
Bama had one heck of a season and beat a bunch of solid teams. I don't recall a season where about every team Bama played had a legit chance to pull the upset off every week. When considering the parity throughout CFB, how much talent in the SEC, and the HUGE target on Bama's back weekly. This Bama team climbed a serious mountain and might have had one of Bama's best seasons ever.
Bama was very resilient this season!
The proof is within Bama's schedule.
Part of post I made the other day below:
Regular Season
Wisconsin - 10-3
Mid Tennessee - 7-6
Ole Miss - 10-3
ULM - 2-11 (Only team with losing record)
Georgia - 10-3
Arkansas - 8-5
Texas A&M - 8-5
Tennessee - 9-5
LSU - 9-3 (Should be a 10 win team)
Miss St. - 9-4
Charleston So - 10-2
Auburn - 7-6
Post Season
Florida - 10-4
Michigan St. - 12-2
Clemson - 14-1
Without Bama loss added to record's
10-2
7-5
9-3
2-10 (Only team with losing record)
10-2
8-4
8-4
9-4
9-2 (Should be a 10 win team)
9-3
10-1
7-5
Post Season
10-3
12-1
14-0
That's a bunch of solid teams beaten above!
Bama had one heck of a season and beat a bunch of solid teams. I don't recall a season where about every team Bama played had a legit chance to pull the upset off every week. When considering the parity throughout CFB, how much talent in the SEC, and the HUGE target on Bama's back weekly. This Bama team climbed a serious mountain and might have had one of Bama's best seasons ever.
Bama was very resilient this season!
Posted on 1/17/16 at 8:45 am to randomways
quote:
randomways
You're wasting your time. No way any LSU fan will acknowledge Bama's dominance, much less comprehend arithmetic.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 9:29 am to BayouBengals03
You're right. Bama is lucky to have another tough team on the schedule
Posted on 1/17/16 at 9:40 am to randomways
quote:
Because removing those numbers rewards winning. We're talking about a single metric, not a holistic discussion of a team's quality, so building in a method of doing that makes sense. It's easy to demonstrate. Let's say you -- we'll call you "LSU" -- have two games. Game one, LSU plays a 14-1 Bama. The other, LSU plays a 6-6 Vandy. You win one, lose one (doesn't matter which opponent.) So your opponents have a 20-7 record. 20/27 = 74%. Solid, right? So let's go with the formula by removing losses suffered at your hands. One loss (say, to us) brings the new total to 20 wins, 6 losses. 20/26 = .769. 77%. Even better, right?
Now let's say you go undefeated. Your unadjusted total is the same, obviously. 20 wins, 7 losses. 20/27 = 74%. But look...by this metric, an unbeaten LSU that took down Bama and slapped Vandy all over the field looks exactly like an LSU that managed to beat Bama but suffered a crushing upset against Vandy.
So, instead, you remove losses suffered at your hands. 14-1 becomes 14-0. 6-6 becomes 6-5. Total: 20-5. Don't even need to use a calculator to know that 20/25 = 80%. Now your undefeated LSU is rightly rewarded in this metric. Yes, you could go look at LSU's record independently. You should, in fact. But we're discussing LSU's performance relative to other teams, not LSU's performance in itself. So removing that loss is essentially an algorithmic method of reward success without cross-referencing other statistics. Do you follow?
This is why Vandy is Vandy.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 9:42 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
Dude football season is over. It's basketball season.
Pretty sure the URL for this site includes "sec-football" in it.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 10:57 am to randomways
The playoff era champions are going to get an AUTOMATIC bump of 3-4% to their winning percentage that yhe BCS era teams don't get because of the extra game against a team with 12 wins, minimum.
Example: Bama's opponents winning percentage prior to the Clemson game was 65%. It was 68% after. There's your 3% jump because of a single game. Going forward, every national champ is going to have a 65%, or better, winning percentage because of the extra games.
You seem like an intelligent guy, so I'm hoping you can now grasp this. There is a clear skew in the numbers because of the extra games. The fact Bama fans don't like it, doesn't make it untrue.
Now, does it take away from anything Bama did this year? No, it doesn't. So all the defensiveness from Bama fans is unwarranted.
I fully understand what removing the losses Suffered at the hands of the championship team does, it makes the opponents winning percentage look better than what it actually is. There's no need to do that as the actual winning percentage is already impressive.
He got called on his bullshite and all the Bama fans ran to his aid because any who don't agree that Bama is the greatest thing in the history of ever, is wrong in their opinion.
Example: Bama's opponents winning percentage prior to the Clemson game was 65%. It was 68% after. There's your 3% jump because of a single game. Going forward, every national champ is going to have a 65%, or better, winning percentage because of the extra games.
You seem like an intelligent guy, so I'm hoping you can now grasp this. There is a clear skew in the numbers because of the extra games. The fact Bama fans don't like it, doesn't make it untrue.
Now, does it take away from anything Bama did this year? No, it doesn't. So all the defensiveness from Bama fans is unwarranted.
quote:
So, instead, you remove losses suffered at your hands. 14-1 becomes 14-0. 6-6 becomes 6-5. Total: 20-5. Don't even need to use a calculator to know that 20/25 = 80%. Now your undefeated LSU is rightly rewarded in this metric. Yes, you could go look at LSU's record independently. You should, in fact. But we're discussing LSU's performance relative to other teams, not LSU's performance in itself. So removing that loss is essentially an algorithmic method of reward success without cross-referencing other statistics. Do you follow?
I fully understand what removing the losses Suffered at the hands of the championship team does, it makes the opponents winning percentage look better than what it actually is. There's no need to do that as the actual winning percentage is already impressive.
He got called on his bullshite and all the Bama fans ran to his aid because any who don't agree that Bama is the greatest thing in the history of ever, is wrong in their opinion.
This post was edited on 1/17/16 at 11:07 am
Posted on 1/17/16 at 11:02 am to Kcoyote
Yeah. But if you take out all of the teams that played in a bowl, it's not so great. They really only played about 13 or 14 tough opponents.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 12:38 pm to TroyTider
Alabama played a tougher season this year than 2011 LSU
Impressive
Impressive
Posted on 1/17/16 at 12:42 pm to RB10
quote:do you understand how percentages work? The total number is irrelevant, other than it makes for an even better sample size
Bama's opponents played 45 more game this year than they did in 2011 and 34 more than they did in 2012
Posted on 1/17/16 at 12:43 pm to narddogg81
We should factor in somehow being the team played the most after the opponent's bye week also.
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