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re: Alabama & Auburn Fans, Give Me Some Info.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:11 pm to SHMILL
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:11 pm to SHMILL
11 games into the season....You claim:
Yet don't know:
Troll is Troll
quote:
college football fan, I'm very excited to watch this game
Yet don't know:
quote:
What are the advantages held by both teams? O line/ D line? Turnover margin?
Troll is Troll
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Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:12 pm to CreoleAubie
Always a fun game for any rabid football fan.
This year seems to have more ? marks than others with Auburn's resurgence to relevancy.
Nonetheless, and as a homer, I just don't think the match up is that favorable for Auburn this year. It's going to be a much better game, but offensive and defensive statistics from this current season are much more in favor of Alabama, especially when it comes to defense.
Offensively, Auburn is going to have to stop Bama's run, which hasn't been spoken a great deal about in all the rhetoric. Defensively, as with other years, Auburn has a better offense than defense, but the team is excellent overall, don't get me wrong.
The point I'm trying to make is this: Auburn will have a hard time stopping both Bama's run game and pass game, it's efficient and successful, even in a pinch. Additionally, Auburn will HAVE to throw the ball, they will put up rushing numbers, but nothing over the 200 mark. The rest of Auburn's offense is going to have to go to the air. This will lead to mistakes and a loss of possession time for the Tigers.
A very good regression shows Bama as a 70% winner of the game within an 85% accuracy of the regression. This makes Auburn very unlikely to win this game. LINK / If you view this link and expected wins after week 13, you can see Auburn has lesser odds than Bama. LINK
Considering the breakdown above, and the regression mentioned, It's going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win, even at home.
Granted, nothing is guaranteed, but the probabilistic thinker will reasonably conclude that Auburn will have a tough game ahead of them if they expect to win.
This year seems to have more ? marks than others with Auburn's resurgence to relevancy.
Nonetheless, and as a homer, I just don't think the match up is that favorable for Auburn this year. It's going to be a much better game, but offensive and defensive statistics from this current season are much more in favor of Alabama, especially when it comes to defense.
Offensively, Auburn is going to have to stop Bama's run, which hasn't been spoken a great deal about in all the rhetoric. Defensively, as with other years, Auburn has a better offense than defense, but the team is excellent overall, don't get me wrong.
The point I'm trying to make is this: Auburn will have a hard time stopping both Bama's run game and pass game, it's efficient and successful, even in a pinch. Additionally, Auburn will HAVE to throw the ball, they will put up rushing numbers, but nothing over the 200 mark. The rest of Auburn's offense is going to have to go to the air. This will lead to mistakes and a loss of possession time for the Tigers.
A very good regression shows Bama as a 70% winner of the game within an 85% accuracy of the regression. This makes Auburn very unlikely to win this game. LINK / If you view this link and expected wins after week 13, you can see Auburn has lesser odds than Bama. LINK
Considering the breakdown above, and the regression mentioned, It's going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win, even at home.
Granted, nothing is guaranteed, but the probabilistic thinker will reasonably conclude that Auburn will have a tough game ahead of them if they expect to win.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:13 pm to pvilleguru
quote:
Auburn: Home field
I think this might be an advantage for UA.
why?
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:16 pm to AUCE05
quote:
We controlled Murray for 3 qrts before getting bored. That won't happen at the IB, and with AJ (AKA Poor mans Murray)
AJ McCarron vs top-25 opponents*
Career: 13-2
2013: 3-0
Aaron Murray
Career: 5-13
2013: 0-4
If that's a poor man's QB, I think I like being poor.
*defined as ranked on the day of the game.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:17 pm to JustGetItRight
Jay Barker had an awesome win record, too.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:17 pm to SECSolomonGrundy
quote:
why?
While it defies logic, Bama seems to play best away from home.
They haven't lost away from BDS since 2010.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:19 pm to SHMILL
For auburn to win, they will have to be able to run the ball consistantly for 4 quarters. It has been proven through the years that this is very hard to do against Saban's defense. Usually when teams have success against Bama, it's through the passing game. So I believe that the best chance auburn has (outside of Bama just crapping the bed) is to get a couple of big plays early, with either long passes or with trick plays, and get Bama's defense on their heels, and then establish their running game off of that. But if auburn can't capitalize off of some early big plays, I don't see them being able to establish their running game consistantly for 4 quarters. And if Bama consistantly forces auburn into 3rd and 6 or 5 type situations, then auburn will be in for a long day because I don't think their QB is good enough to consistantly complete passes on known passing downs.
Edit: Oops, forgot to put up my prediction. Bama 34-13
Edit: Oops, forgot to put up my prediction. Bama 34-13
This post was edited on 11/25/13 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:21 pm to AUCE05
quote:
Jay Barker had an awesome win record, too.
Last time I checked, winning was the ultimate goal.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:26 pm to Pettifogger
Can't disagree with any of this perspective, but it feels like stuff that's more pertinent to fans than players.
Another point of view is that Auburn has a huge opportunity to, as you said, destroy Bama's status quo, and you know that they would really want to be the one's to do so.
Any way you slice it tho, it's a real big game, and both parties will likely be nervous
Another point of view is that Auburn has a huge opportunity to, as you said, destroy Bama's status quo, and you know that they would really want to be the one's to do so.
Any way you slice it tho, it's a real big game, and both parties will likely be nervous
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:32 pm to SHMILL
Confident.
If we play our best game, and Auburn plays their best game, I still think we're about 10 points better than them.
If we play our best game, and Auburn plays their best game, I still think we're about 10 points better than them.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:33 pm to SHMILL
As an AU fan, this season has already been a glaring success, nothing can really upset me at this point. I still want the W though, and will be nervous come game-day.
AU needs a mistake or two early from UA, where Malzahn can take the shots down-field for the big play. The worst thing that can happen is for the crowd to feel AU is out of it early, it could get ugly quickly at that point. Malzahn needs a masterful choreographed first drive for a TD to get the players believing early.
Auburn has enough scoring D IMO to counteract the likely stops by the UA D. If AU can hold UA to field goals/punts on several drives, AU should be fine. Malzahn is good at drawing up the big plays at opportune times.
So the game will come down to AU scoring early, a TO or two by UA, and Marshall being able to hit the big play when Malzahn calls it. I don't see AU grinding it out on the ground the whole game; they will have to hit a few big plays through the air.
Final prediction: 34-31 AU
AU needs a mistake or two early from UA, where Malzahn can take the shots down-field for the big play. The worst thing that can happen is for the crowd to feel AU is out of it early, it could get ugly quickly at that point. Malzahn needs a masterful choreographed first drive for a TD to get the players believing early.
Auburn has enough scoring D IMO to counteract the likely stops by the UA D. If AU can hold UA to field goals/punts on several drives, AU should be fine. Malzahn is good at drawing up the big plays at opportune times.
So the game will come down to AU scoring early, a TO or two by UA, and Marshall being able to hit the big play when Malzahn calls it. I don't see AU grinding it out on the ground the whole game; they will have to hit a few big plays through the air.
Final prediction: 34-31 AU
This post was edited on 11/25/13 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:36 pm to SHMILL
AU defense doesn't stop the number one team overnight. Only in the movies does that happen.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:39 pm to A_Leather_Glove
quote:
Another point of view is that Auburn has a huge opportunity to, as you said, destroy Bama's status quo, and you know that they would really want to be the one's to do so.
I agree, the opportunity lost, if you think this is really an AU opportunity, would be huge.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 12:51 pm to Pettifogger
It's obvious that on paper bama outmatches us in most categories. I don't see us winning, but if we do it'll come down to magical plays (see UGA) and no mistakes on our part.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 1:03 pm to Upperaltiger06
quote:
It's obvious that on paper bama outmatches us in most categories. I don't see us winning, but if we do it'll come down to magical plays (see UGA) and no mistakes on our part.
I don't think it'll have to be magical. That said, we'll have get beyond what the paper indicates (like, being able to run on a team that can't be run on) and we'll have to play pretty close to error-free, as you indicate.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 1:03 pm to SHMILL
quote:Neither. I won't be nervous until the game starts but after watching LSU and MSU against bama's D and Bama's offense against MSU's D I think Bama is beatable.
As a fan of either school, are you more on the nervous side or more on the confident side?
quote:Don't know who wins. It depends on who gets the most breaks.
Honestly, who wins it?
quote:There really is no advantages one way or the other. Maybe Auburn at home, a true off-week and all the pressure is on Bama. But their strengths and weaknesses matchup evenly.
What are the advantages held by both teams?
quote:I think Auburn's OLine against Bama's DLine is an even match when running and Auburn has the advantage when passing. Bama's OLine vs Auburn's DLine is about even when running and Auburn has the advantage with their pass rush.
O line/ D line?
quote:Probably even. With it depending on how much pressure Auburn puts on AJ and how much Marshall has to throw.
Turnover margin?
quote:Bama stop Auburn's running game and keep the pressure off AJ. Auburn Control the lines of scrimmage, make the passes when needed, and get to AJ.
What does each team HAVE to do (besides score more points) to win the game?
quote:If Auburn's DLine can handle Bama's OLine their offense will sputter like it did against VT and MSU. The LBs aren't good but the DB's can cover well and make big plays.
Does Auburn have the D to stop Bama?
quote:Don't know. The best running team Bama has faced is averaging 100+ less yards a game and 1.2 yards less per carry. Passing wise Auburn's passing is average when they throw but Bama's CBs aren't the best and they lack a great pass rush.
Does Auburn have the offense to consistently move the ball on Bama?
quote:Auburn's are LB and second is their Passing game. Bama's are their OLine and second is their pass rush. Auburn's strengths are their Running game and Pass rush. Bama's are their run defense and AJ. So it pretty much evens out. A weakness against weakness and strength against strength.
What are the weaknesses of each team?
This post was edited on 11/25/13 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 11/25/13 at 1:10 pm to AUCE05
quote:
Jay Barker had an awesome win record, too.
How many championship rings did Jay have??? Or, for that matter how many has auburn football won? Bama has done 50% more in 4 years than Auburn has done in its entire history... right?
Posted on 11/25/13 at 1:10 pm to SHMILL
You'll know how this game will turn out after the first play.
I think Alabama dominates Auburn from the start.
Never takes their foot off the gas.
Alabama will break Auburn's will and then their spirit.
I think Alabama dominates Auburn from the start.
Never takes their foot off the gas.
Alabama will break Auburn's will and then their spirit.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 1:16 pm to SHMILL
As usual, auburn will rely on gimmicks, luck, and deluded belief that a "special" atmosphere will push them to victory.
BAMA will rely on hard work, discipline, and fundamentals to choke the life out of auburn.
BAMA will rely on hard work, discipline, and fundamentals to choke the life out of auburn.
Posted on 11/25/13 at 1:18 pm to RollDawgRoll
quote:Already making excuses.
As usual, auburn will rely on gimmicks, luck, and deluded belief that a "special" atmosphere will push them to victory.
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