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re: A statistics nerd on Reddit plugged all 128 teams into a computer model
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:03 pm to accnodefense
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:03 pm to accnodefense
So you admit your just wasting your time since that is all it is.
Go ahead and predict the exact stats for the Bama vs WI game for me so I can let my friends know how the game is going to go so they know if it is worth traveling to the game.
Thanks.
Go ahead and predict the exact stats for the Bama vs WI game for me so I can let my friends know how the game is going to go so they know if it is worth traveling to the game.
Thanks.
3
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:04 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:Exactly! How is it a forgone conclusion UGA will beat Bama when they both have the same problem at qb and Bama is better in several other areas on the field?
blows my mind people are this high on us when we don't have the slightest frickin clue what to expect from QB.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:05 pm to nebraskafaninwi
Don't need a computer to figure out that Alabama will win rather convincingly.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:08 pm to nebraskafaninwi
quote:
So you admit your just wasting your time since that is all it is.
He is using statistical analysis to help predict future results. If you had a brain you would know that statistics are not 100% accurate, however more often than not, they are correct. Which in terms of betting is a huge advantage. now play in traffic
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:12 pm to nebraskafaninwi
quote:
Go ahead and predict the exact stats for the Bama vs WI game for me so I can let my friends know how the game is going to go so they know if it is worth traveling to the game.
You understand the point of a system like this is to help find an edge, right? Not pick 100% of the games correctly down to the exact score.
If my system can help me pick 55% against the spread I will be estatic.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:13 pm to accnodefense
It doesn't take a computer model to know Corey Clement isn't going to produce at the same level as Melvin Gordon.
There is no edge in your analysis. Simply watching the games tells you everything you need to know.
The HUMAN factor is what will determine future results/events.
There is no edge in your analysis. Simply watching the games tells you everything you need to know.
The HUMAN factor is what will determine future results/events.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:13 pm to Gradual_Stroke
quote:Wouldn't shock me if you read SDS daily after this comment.
Reddit sucks dick
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:13 pm to accnodefense
quote:
If A&M was above LSU on that "list" one of your aggies would've posted it here first.
Texag7, 13 or Sarge would have posted it here thats for sure
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:14 pm to accnodefense
You have the patience of a saint, bless your heart. I'd save your breath though, you're responding to a guy who spends his free time snitching on high schoolers
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:15 pm to anc
Waiting for aggy.....
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:15 pm to NYCAuburn
quote:
He is using statistical analysis to help predict future results. If you had a brain you would know that statistics are not 100% accurate, however more often than not, they are correct. Which in terms of betting is a huge advantage. now play in traffic
Someone who gets it
I am a statistician in real life. It's what I do for a living.
Betting on football or any sport is like flipping a coin. Las Vegas tries to set the line to where its an essential coin flip.
The bell curve on betting will peak at 50%. My goal is to find a system that can shift the curve slighltly to where it peaks around 54-55%. I use my system to try and identify lines that are off.
I went 69-50 ATS last year and was 54.3% in 2013. It's paid off for me.
Yet some people in this thread think anything that doesn't pick 100% correctly is a waste of time
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:16 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Texag7, 13 or Sarge would have posted it here thats for sure
It sucks I am not even in your consideration set.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:16 pm to anc
nice post. thanks for sharing 
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:17 pm to accnodefense
Ok computer nerd, here is a test for you.
Since you use old data and are using Hoke coached players for Michigan, can you let me know how much improved Harbaugh coached players are going to be for the Utah game?
You know, an entire new S&C staff, entire new coaching environment, new systems, and entire new coaching staff.
Looking forward to knowing if Michigan wins by 500 or loses by 500 and the exact number of yardage in the game.
Since you use old data and are using Hoke coached players for Michigan, can you let me know how much improved Harbaugh coached players are going to be for the Utah game?
You know, an entire new S&C staff, entire new coaching environment, new systems, and entire new coaching staff.
Looking forward to knowing if Michigan wins by 500 or loses by 500 and the exact number of yardage in the game.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:17 pm to cardboardboxer
You're above that cbb, I give you credit for avoiding the low-hanging fruit like those clowns and sticking to diatribes about how you want to hate frick us like we're a burned out prom queen.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:19 pm to nebraskafaninwi
I'm sure your "betting edge" helped you when Stanford was a 41 point underdog to USCw and Stanford won.
How many millions of dollars did you lose on that bet since your model would have given you a confidence factor or 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999 percent?
How many millions of dollars did you lose on that bet since your model would have given you a confidence factor or 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999 percent?
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:20 pm to nebraskafaninwi
quote:Why is this Alabama fan so angry ITT?
nebraskafaninwi
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:21 pm to anc
you can just take your computer model and shove it where the sun don't shine.
instead of wasting time, why don't you go and meet some chicks. learn to talk and have fun with them. have a beer. whatever you do, don't show them your computer model.
instead of wasting time, why don't you go and meet some chicks. learn to talk and have fun with them. have a beer. whatever you do, don't show them your computer model.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:21 pm to craigbiggio
quote:
You have the patience of a saint, bless your heart. I'd save your breath though, you're responding to a guy who spends his free time snitching on high schoolers
I'll let my numbers do the talking
If they suck, I deserve criticism.
Reddit was ready to bring out the torches and pitchforks last year as my system went 11-25 against the spread in Week 1. 7 of the first 8 weeks it failed to beat the spread.
But Week 9 onward it was over 52.4% the rest of the season and finished the season at 53%.
I don't bet every game my system spits out. Out of 730+ games last year I bet on 16% of them. I even go against my system at times.
nebraskafaninwi is right when it comes to the human factor, but the human factor couldn't have predicted UTSA to go into Houston last year and win by 20. The whole point of a system is to pull more toward the center of the bell curve and limit outliers.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:24 pm to accnodefense
Not surprised your model failed last season.
You can't accurately guesstimate the human factor of the game.
There is a reason why the BCS was thrown in the trash as quickly as it was and the Playoff already showed the games need to be played on the field since the title game last year based on dumb computer models would have been FSU vs Alabama.
You can't accurately guesstimate the human factor of the game.
There is a reason why the BCS was thrown in the trash as quickly as it was and the Playoff already showed the games need to be played on the field since the title game last year based on dumb computer models would have been FSU vs Alabama.
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