4 Keys to LSU-Texas : Bill Connelly, ESPN

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1. Who handles the conditions?

The temperature in Austin likely will approach 100 degrees on Saturday. That opens the door for fatigue to play a role, as it did for Florida State against Boise State. In humid, 90-degree conditions, the Seminoles slowly wilted against BSU's tempo-heavy, quick-strike passing game. In terms of game clock, BSU averaged 22.9 seconds per snap against FSU in Week 1. Texas, meanwhile, averaged 22.8 against Louisiana Tech and attempted a similarly high percentage of short passes.

Twenty-three of Sam Ehlinger's 38 passes were thrown within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage, including a heavy diet early in the contest; he not only completed 21 of these throws, but despite minimal air yardage, those completions gained 146 yards (7 per catch). Five of the completions ended up gaining 13 yards or more. The Horns were efficient enough in the short passing game to both move the chains and preoccupy the safeties, opening up a few downfield opportunities in later quarters.

Having receivers who can block really well has turned into one of college football's most underrated and useful luxuries, but blocking LSU's defensive backs and linebackers is different than blocking Louisiana Tech's. The Tigers allowed only 5 yards per completion on passes thrown behind the line last season -- they allowed only 6.8 on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line.

Texas' short passing game could be the most important factor Saturday. The Longhorns might not be able to run the ball efficiently, both because LSU's defensive front is awesome and because, thanks to injuries, the UT running back corps consists of basically Keaontay Ingram and a bunch of dudes who moved from other positions. Since this is a big game, it's safe to assume Ehlinger will be prepared to carry the ball 15 to 20 times himself, but LSU's run front might be the best Texas has faced under Herman.

That puts extra pressure on Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson & Co. to take those horizontal passes and average 7 or 8 yards per catch off of them. If they can do that, the Horns can both move the ball efficiently and potentially wear the Tigers down. What do you suppose wears linebackers down faster -- having to fight off a blocker to make a tackle in the box or having to sprint from sideline to sideline ad nauseam?

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2. Can Texas create some big plays?

Of course, the quickest route to the end zone is via the big play. Ehlinger threw a couple of lovely balls downfield against a stressed Tech secondary, but however you want to frame the big-play matchup, it favors LSU.

The Tigers defense, led by safety Grant Delpit, ranked 18th in my marginal explosiveness measure last year, and the Texas offense ranked 116th. The Horns ranked 77th in gains of 30-plus yards, and what LSU allowed ranked 23rd. If the short pass isn't working, the Horns might have to look for some shortcuts, and they are rarely found against defensive coordinator Dave Aranda's attack.

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3. Can LSU avoid going backward?

LSU's first go-round in its new spread-ish offense was an obvious success. The Tigers destroyed Georgia Southern's not-completely-awful defense to the tune of 42 first-half points and an absurd 68% success rate, filtering out garbage time. (The national average for success rate is generally around 43%.)

Beyond the results, it actually looked different. LSU was foregoing huddles and seemingly allowing the defensive formation -- namely, the number of defenders in the box -- to determine runs versus passes. Joe Burrow threw a downright Ehlingerian 20 passes within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage. (He completed 18 for 189 yards, including two touchdowns and a 44-yard catch-and-run by Justin Jefferson.) There was a heavy mix of both quick strikes to wideouts and checkdowns/screens to running backs.

Better yet, the spread-out formations opened things up for the run game: 15 non-garbage-time rushes garnered a 67% success rate. Whereas LSU was high on the manball factor in previous years -- Eight defenders in the box? Who cares? Let's outmuscle 'em for 3 yards! -- the Tigers did an intriguing job of putting the ball where defenders weren't on Saturday.

Some of the same questions about the short strikes and their effectiveness against stronger, faster defenders apply to LSU's offense as to Texas'. But there was one glitch in an otherwise effective attack that got my attention: negative plays.

Georgia Southern defenders finished the game with 12 havoc plays (seven tackles for loss and five pass breakups). (A havoc play is a tackle for loss, pass intercepted or broken up, or a forced fumble. Havoc rate is those combined divided by total plays). That's a 17% havoc rate, and while a lot of that happened in garbage time, not all of it did. The Tigers also allowed a 17% havoc rate last season, which ranked 85th in FBS.

Texas' defense managed an 18% havoc rate last season and was at 18% against Louisiana Tech. If someone's moving backward or getting passes batted, it's probably LSU.

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4. Can LSU match Texas' (likely) A-game?

Here's something I wrote in my Texas preview this summer:

Herman is the ultimate big-game coach. In four years as a head coach, he is 10-6 straight-up as an underdog and 13-2-1 against the spread. As a one-possession favorite, he's 9-2 straight-up and 7-3-1 against the spread. As a healthy favorite, however? He's 21-5 straight-up (a worse win percentage than as a one-score favorite) and 8-17-1 against the spread.

Texas is a six-point underdog, and the next time a Herman team doesn't play well as an underdog will be nearly the first. LSU plays better as an underdog, too. The Tigers were 7-1 against the spread as an underdog in 2017-18 but were just 8-8 as a favorite.

Any trend information like this is based on small samples, but it's safe to say that Texas is going to play really good football. Will LSU match it, or will the Tigers fall victim to first-half bum-rushes the same way Oklahoma (24-3 run) and Georgia (17-0 run) did in losses to Texas last season? The answer could determine the outcome of maybe the most important game of the week.

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