Started By
Message
re: 2016 LSU Football Season Prediction Thread
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:17 pm to southeasttiger113
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:17 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
Maybe you should read about the Gambler's Fallacy, smart guy. Yea, your thought process is flawed and it makes Vegas about a billion dollars every year off of morons like you losing their asses because they think LSU's performance the past two years is somehow going to affect their performance in the future
You keep acting as if my entire opinion on next year's game is based purely on the fact that Arkansas won 2 straight football games against LSU. It is based on what Arkansas returns, where the game is played, the style of play which Arkansas has used succesfully for 2 straight years against LSU's same style.
If I was predicting that your dice roll would land on 3 for a 3rd straight time solely because it landed on 3 the first 2 times, that would be an example of what is discussed in the Gambler's Fallacy.
Making a prediction based on trends and data available from past performances is the way that football, business and the world in general work.
You should read more.
This post was edited on 1/19/16 at 1:18 pm
2
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:17 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:I'm not making an argument that the past is going to affect the future. I'm saying that LSU has a more talented team than Arkansas this year, which we do, and it's reasonable to think that we'll win the game because of that. The fact that we were upset the past two years doesn't erase the fact that we SHOULD win the game, and it won't change the fact that we should win in 2100 if we have a more talented team even if we lose the game every year until then
But by Arkansas beating LSU the last 2 years your argument doesn't work either
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:17 pm to OKtiger
Bert is LSU's Daddy 
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:18 pm to OKtiger
No dog in this fight, but honestly, anything is better than thinking about my own team for the moment.
I have seen LSU fans use the exact same logic repeatedly with Ole Miss until the last few years.
I was at one of the games where Ole Miss was up with about two minutes left to lose the game in BR.
As far as Arkansas, they have some advantages.
1. They play at home.
2. LSU is typically a clock control team --- this means the game may very well be close until the fourth
3. While it is a new year, you cannot deny LSU played pretty poorly away from home last year
4. While I think B Harris could def improve, that has to be shown on the field
5. I am not sure what went wrong with that LSU Oline in November, but whatever it was clearly hurt the offense--- I assume it was injuries and there is never a certainty you will not have similar issues that late into the season
6. Arkansas will probably be preseason top 25
I would certainly not feel confident calling the Arky game a win for LSU.
Of course, I will just be happy for us to squeak out 8 wins next year.
I have seen LSU fans use the exact same logic repeatedly with Ole Miss until the last few years.
I was at one of the games where Ole Miss was up with about two minutes left to lose the game in BR.
As far as Arkansas, they have some advantages.
1. They play at home.
2. LSU is typically a clock control team --- this means the game may very well be close until the fourth
3. While it is a new year, you cannot deny LSU played pretty poorly away from home last year
4. While I think B Harris could def improve, that has to be shown on the field
5. I am not sure what went wrong with that LSU Oline in November, but whatever it was clearly hurt the offense--- I assume it was injuries and there is never a certainty you will not have similar issues that late into the season
6. Arkansas will probably be preseason top 25
I would certainly not feel confident calling the Arky game a win for LSU.
Of course, I will just be happy for us to squeak out 8 wins next year.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:18 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:You do realize that lines are made from past data don't you?
Maybe you should read about the Gambler's Fallacy, smart guy. Yea, your thought process is flawed and it makes Vegas about a billion dollars every year off of morons like you losing their asses because they think LSU's performance the past two years is somehow going to affect their performance in the future
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:19 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
I'm saying that LSU has a more talented team than Arkansas this year, which we do, and it's reasonable to think that we'll win the game because of that.
That is perfectly reasonable but there are more factors then just which team is more talented when looking at who should win the game
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Good post, couldn't have worded any of it better myself.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:20 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
Maybe you should read about the Gambler's Fallacy, smart guy.
If he was using the gambler's fallacy, he'd pick LSU.
Idiot.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:20 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:Did you just wiki the gambler's fallacy and read the first 3 lines? That's not what it is. It includes your argument that the past two years mean shite this year.
If I was predicting that your dice roll would land on 3 for a 3rd straight time solely because it landed on 3 the first 2 times, that would be an example of what is discussed in the Gambler's Fallacy.
quote:There's no trend in sports dumbass. You're really trying to compare a game to running a business? I'm guessing you're 19 years old and still in college, along with anyone who would agree with that ridiculous statement
Making a prediction based on trends and data available from past performances is the way that football, business and the world in general work.
quote:Do we not return more talent?
It is based on what Arkansas returns
quote:Advantage Arkansas, but is their home field advantage elite or something that I'm not aware of?
where the game is played
quote:Can coaches not make adjustments? Do we not have a new DC and a supposedly revamped offensive philosophy? Again, those things have no bearing on what's going to happen this year
the style of play which Arkansas has used succesfully for 2 straight years against LSU's same style.
quote:
You should read more.
coming from a guy who's an expert on fallacies because he just read 2 lines off of a wikiPosted on 1/19/16 at 1:22 pm to croomdawggie
quote:
8-4 (Harris is Awful)
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:22 pm to OKtiger
I think the 2 toughest games will be Alabama (obviously) and Arkansas. If LSU would win one of those I'd be happy. I feel, as another LSU poster said, it's almost possible that LSU may have a better chance to pull an upset over Alabama than beat Arkansas. But until LSU beats Alabama, I would predict Alabama to win.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:22 pm to RB10
quote:"The gambler's fallacy also includes that a gambler may decide, after a consistent tendency toward tails, that tails is somehow more likely to hit"
If he was using the gambler's fallacy, he'd pick LSU.
That's on the wiki if you would've spent 2 minutes scrolling down. Most logical fallacies include a reverse. Now why don't you run along and stop sucking your internet friend off, dipshit?
Idiot
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:23 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
There's no trend in sports dumbass
Are you serious?Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:23 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
Did you just wiki the gambler's fallacy and read the first 3 lines? That's not what it is. It includes your argument that the past two years mean shite this year.
No, I have multiple business degrees and have written more pages than I can count on the topic.
quote:
There's no trend in sports dumbass.
Are you a real person? Like, do you seriously believe that?
quote:
You're really trying to compare a game to running a business?
Uh, yes, I very much am. And so do most of the people who coach and run this game.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:25 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
consistent tendency toward tails, that tails is somehow more likely to hit
Listen bro, you seem like a nice guy, so I will try and be slow and to the point here.
The gambler's fallacy deals with games of pure chance. Pure chance meaning there is no way to prepare for or exploit weaknesses. It is purely chance. 50/50. The fallacy is that people see that chance continue to land one way and assume that there must be some weakness with the other way, that the heads side that keeps hitting is likely to hit again because of some advantage. There is no advantage, it has just happened to land on heads for 4 straight flips. The statistical probability of the coin landing on head for 5 straight chances are much, much lower than guessing that the 5th chance will land on tails, but people incorrectly think that it will continue because of irrelevant things that happened in the past. It is the same as the hot streak theory.
Football is nothing like flipping a coin. Football is not a game of chance. The gambler's fallacy does not apply to football games.
Again, read a little more, study a little more, get back to us.
This post was edited on 1/19/16 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:25 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
"The gambler's fallacy also includes that a gambler may decide, after a consistent tendency toward tails, that tails is somehow more likely to hit"
"Also Includes"
The principle of the Gambler's fallacy is that if something happens more often than the norm over a period of time, it should happen less in the future.
Arkansas winning 2 in a row is more than the norm, therefore, the fallacy would be that they are less likely to win the next one because they won the previous two.
So again, you're a fricking moron.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:25 pm to southeasttiger113
Maybe you are the dumb arse for buying that book
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:26 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
There's no trend in sports dumbass. You're really trying to compare a game to running a business? I'm guessing you're 19 years old and still in college, along with anyone who would agree with that ridiculous statement
You can't really be this dense, right? Fortune 500 companies all over the world use trends and statistics from previous quarters to make their budgets and big time decisions every day. How else would they predict the market for their goods/services? Your head coach and team is a "business" that has trends, you can literally see several hundred LSU posters talking about those trends on a daily basis on this very site.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:Vegas would not exist if there was. Like, do you seriously believe that past events in sports affect what happens in future games? If they did, everyone would make an absolute shite ton of money by betting on sports. There are entirely too many moving parts in sports to use last year as an argument of what's going to happen this year.
Are you a real person? Like, do you seriously believe that?
quote:I'm talking about the trends that businesses evaluate vs the "trends" that don't occur in sports. Keep moving that target around though
Uh, yes, I very much am. And so do most of the people who coach and run this game.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 1:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The gambler's fallacy deals with games of pure chance
And that is why it should never be thrown into a football discussion
Page 6 of 19
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News