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re: OT: Let's talk about oil/gas prices
Posted on 1/26/15 at 8:27 pm to Ham Malone
Posted on 1/26/15 at 8:27 pm to Ham Malone
What do you do?
1
Posted on 1/26/15 at 8:31 pm to Hawgeye
I'm a landman.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 8:36 pm to Ham Malone
You're in Texas?
Posted on 1/26/15 at 8:44 pm to Hawgeye
I'm based in Kansas but go wherever the leasing projects are.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:15 pm to Hawgeye
I think there will be some cheap real estate in Alaska, North Dakota and West Texas real soon.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:19 pm to Ham Malone
Have you ever done anything with regards to EnCap?
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:22 pm to wmr
I doubt it will be low enough, long enough to take a toll on real estate in those places.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:26 pm to Hawgeye
I'm just curious if there was ever a shortage of cheap real estate in Texas, Alaska and North Dakota? 
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:35 pm to Hawgeye
So you expect oil to rebound to profitable prices for American oil companies?
It will be interesting to see. I don't have a good understanding of the mechanics behind the current drop. I know US consumption has stopped growing due to new efficiency and competing technologies.
If oil doesn't get back up around 70-80 bucks, those areas will have some cheap houses for sale. There are tons of refinery projects in the works in Louisiana and coastal Texas, too. I'd imagine lots of those are being postponed indefinitely right now.
It will be interesting to see. I don't have a good understanding of the mechanics behind the current drop. I know US consumption has stopped growing due to new efficiency and competing technologies.
If oil doesn't get back up around 70-80 bucks, those areas will have some cheap houses for sale. There are tons of refinery projects in the works in Louisiana and coastal Texas, too. I'd imagine lots of those are being postponed indefinitely right now.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:36 pm to Killean
Land, no. Housing, it depends on what part of the boom/bust cycle we're in.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:47 pm to Hawgeye
Not familiar with EnCap. I mostly work for small independent producers. Lots of title opinion work.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:51 pm to wmr
Yea, I expect it to start a slow climb back up next month. I wouldn't be shocked if it were back up to $70/bbl by summer(June).
Those areas you listed won't see a hit because of contracts being finished. Exploration will take a hit for sure, but for example, West Texas produces over 300 million bbl's per year in the Permian Basin. There is still production going on. It just won't stop.
The oil out of West Texas is a real good oil. Can be refined well, and will always be the first taken off the market.
I'd be surprised if the Keystone pipeline passed now though. No use for it. That is a trash oil. Can't be refined easily and is really only good for use in asphalt, shingles, etc. not a oil to be refined for fuels.
Also, probably going to see an increase in natural gas production in West Texas, which will hurt some folks in central Arkansas, and Ohio, an Pennsylvania. For the last couple of years, producers have burned off natural gas on the oil wells in West Texas, but they've now started rebuilding gas plants or restoring what they once had going.
Those areas you listed won't see a hit because of contracts being finished. Exploration will take a hit for sure, but for example, West Texas produces over 300 million bbl's per year in the Permian Basin. There is still production going on. It just won't stop.
The oil out of West Texas is a real good oil. Can be refined well, and will always be the first taken off the market.
I'd be surprised if the Keystone pipeline passed now though. No use for it. That is a trash oil. Can't be refined easily and is really only good for use in asphalt, shingles, etc. not a oil to be refined for fuels.
Also, probably going to see an increase in natural gas production in West Texas, which will hurt some folks in central Arkansas, and Ohio, an Pennsylvania. For the last couple of years, producers have burned off natural gas on the oil wells in West Texas, but they've now started rebuilding gas plants or restoring what they once had going.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:52 pm to Killean
No shortage on land.
Just for shits and giggles....go to Odessa craigslist and see what apartments or houses are going for. Just to rent, not purchase.
Just for shits and giggles....go to Odessa craigslist and see what apartments or houses are going for. Just to rent, not purchase.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 9:59 pm to Ham Malone
Let me think...JVA, Sojourner, Sharp Image, Midland Oil & Gas
Posted on 1/26/15 at 10:14 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
. I wouldn't be shocked if it were back up to $70/bbl by summer(June
I would, outside of a temporary inventory shock.
I mentioned 1 of the 2 reasons oil ran up from its levels in 2003 on the first page (financial speculation). The other primary reason was the explosive growth out of China. Both of these primary factors are no longer existent right now. I could see us getting to the ~60 range given continued strength in the US, however I have little reason to believe (nor have portfolios positioned) that oil will get and/or stay above 70 within the year.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 10:22 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
I feel like OPEC will see the opportunity to gut the North American production infrastructure that has been built up over the past decade by keeping prices low for another few years. It might make business sense for them to do this to us.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 10:31 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Oil shock trend has been around 7-8 years.
We are right near that point now. We feel like it's bottomed out right now, as it continues to hover in mid 40's upper 40's/bbl.
We are right near that point now. We feel like it's bottomed out right now, as it continues to hover in mid 40's upper 40's/bbl.
Posted on 1/27/15 at 12:08 am to Hawgeye
Re: Canadian bitumens
Not true.
quote:
That is a trash oil. Can't be refined easily and is really only good for use in asphalt, shingles, etc. not a oil to be refined for fuels.
Not true.
Posted on 1/27/15 at 6:40 am to Hawgeye
My family has land in the Haynesville Shale. The money I save at the pump and on my heating bill does not come close to the loss of royalty revenue that I'm seeing.
Was back there over the holidays and there is little to no activity in the fields. This has caused several new cafe's, convenience stores, RV parks, etc to close shop.
Lower oil and gas prices are good on the surface but not so much when you start peeling back the onion.
Was back there over the holidays and there is little to no activity in the fields. This has caused several new cafe's, convenience stores, RV parks, etc to close shop.
Lower oil and gas prices are good on the surface but not so much when you start peeling back the onion.
Posted on 1/27/15 at 7:37 am to Notherdamnhog
Lower oil prices increase consumer confidence and spending.. which are the two primary drivers of the economy. Lower oil prices are beneficial to the economy as a whole.
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