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re: OT: Let's talk about oil/gas prices
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:44 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:44 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
I agree. A happy medium for everyone involved is about $70/bbl.
Saudi's get even richer, American oil companies do well, and everyone is happy.
Saudi's get even richer, American oil companies do well, and everyone is happy.
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Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:45 pm to The_Joker
quote:
Sucks for them but shite happens. It's no different in my mind than any other market tanking and people losing their jobs, except this time I benefit. Sorry, I love it.
Yet you will still drop $1.39 for 20 oz. of water.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:47 pm to Hawgeye
quote:Closing them would reduce supply and increase prices. Of course, it would still cost people jobs, just different people.
These areas aren't "new" areas. They are currently being drilled and produced.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:49 pm to The_Joker
Gas is nice and cheap right now. Im buying Gas and Oil based funds as hard as I can. My 401K looks ugly now but later on when prices go back to 115 a barrel... I should come out very nice. 
Im 30 and have plenty of time to sit on them.
Im 30 and have plenty of time to sit on them.This post was edited on 1/26/15 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:53 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
Yet you will still drop $1.39 for 20 oz. of water.
Big difference in $1.39 for water (which I don't ever buy) and $95 to fill my truck every week and a half
This post was edited on 1/26/15 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:56 pm to Hawgeye
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When oil bottomed out in 2008, what happened to our economy?
what are you trying to suggest? because oil prices fell after the economy collapsed.
quote:
Our country does not need to be dependent on foreign oil.
and would protecting the wild make us dependent? we're a net exporter now.
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They control the oil market all across the world. Oil cartels are worst than Mexican drug cartels
I agree. and the oligarchy/monopolization by OPEC is the reason oil prices have been so high for the past 5+ years. the market is at their whim, and they decided to keep output low and prices high until recently.
quote:
Sure they will, at some point. Until then, these families will be on some sort of government assistance until the jobs pick back up.
so to prevent americans from having to subsidize those people through taxes going towards government assistance, americans should subsidize all those jobs through (artificially inflated) higher gas prices. how about getting new jobs like all of the realtors who stopped making money when the real estate market crashed? why should they be immune from changes in the job market?
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:56 pm to Hog on the Hill
quote:
Closing them would reduce supply and increase prices. Of course, it would still cost people jobs, just different people.
No. Keeping it open would reduce our need for foreign oil.
The reason for America now being the top producer in the nation is out in West Texas, not Alaska.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:58 pm to Hog on the Hill
I'm also having trouble understanding why people are making Saudi Arabia a scapegoat in this.
1. US has doubled oil production since 2007. We're now the biggest producer in the world. Still drives global prices down because we no longer import as much oil.
2. Global demand is slowing down due to global economic slowdown.
3. Conflicts in Middle East no longer look as dire for production as they did a few years ago. Expectation of future production is therefore higher.
So yes, while the Arab cartel could lower their own production to stop prices from dropping and potentially make them rebound, why should they? They've obviously judged that it's in their own best interest to keep things the way they are for the time being. Why would you expect them to do otherwise? Is it somehow their responsibility?
Again, they aren't the cause of this problem, even though they have the power to "fix" the problem (and it's not a problem for everyone).
1. US has doubled oil production since 2007. We're now the biggest producer in the world. Still drives global prices down because we no longer import as much oil.
2. Global demand is slowing down due to global economic slowdown.
3. Conflicts in Middle East no longer look as dire for production as they did a few years ago. Expectation of future production is therefore higher.
So yes, while the Arab cartel could lower their own production to stop prices from dropping and potentially make them rebound, why should they? They've obviously judged that it's in their own best interest to keep things the way they are for the time being. Why would you expect them to do otherwise? Is it somehow their responsibility?
Again, they aren't the cause of this problem, even though they have the power to "fix" the problem (and it's not a problem for everyone).
This post was edited on 1/26/15 at 4:59 pm
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:03 pm to Hawgeye
quote:So you're arguing that a reduction in supply does not increase prices when demand remains the same? BRB, rewriting economics 101 textbooks. I think that, in principle, you can agree with me that it should raise prices, even if only slightly.
No. Keeping it open would reduce our need for foreign oil.
The reason for America now being the top producer in the nation is out in West Texas, not Alaska.
If you're going to argue that the effect is minimal, then that diminishes your own point that it helps us reduce our dependency on foreign oil.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:03 pm to Hog on the Hill
lets just nationalize the energy sector. Set a price and tell everybody they will never lose their jobs no matter how much tje government loses.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:05 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
Of course they are the problem. They control the oil market all across the world. Oil cartels are worst than Mexican drug cartels.
You can't be serious with this?
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There is oil all throughout Mexico. Why do you think America has done its part in not allowing any exploration in Mexico?
Have you ever heard of Pemex?
quote:
My problem with this is that at some point we need to separate ourselves from the Saudi's and control our own market.
We are still a net importer of oil. The two other largest producers of oil are Russia and Saudi Arabia. One of these we aren't exactly political friends with. The other is our only middle-eastern, Islamic ally. You want to politically and economically start trouble with the latter?
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:07 pm to Hog on the Hill
quote:
So yes, while the Arab cartel could lower their own production to stop prices from dropping and potentially make them rebound, why should they? They've obviously judged that it's in their own best interest to keep things the way they are for the time being. Why would you expect them to do otherwise? Is it somehow their responsibility?
All sorts of this.
As a country we have economically benefited ourselves throughout our history, getting the better of a long, long list of countries. Now people are getting mad that it's happening to us? Some introspection would be beneficial here.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:07 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
Not really. Since 2007, shale states added 1.36 million jobs.
And they're going to keep 80% of them and the rest of the economy will be adding over 200k jobs a month..
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No. Drilling is currently going on in the portion of Alaska Obama is trying to make a wildlife refuge. Our country does not need to be dependent on foreign oil.
Our country does not need to be dependent on OIL period. Cheap oil is bad for that as well.
quote:
Of course they are the problem. They control the oil market all across the world. Oil cartels are worst than Mexican drug cartels.
There is oil all throughout Mexico. Why do you think America has done its part in not allowing any exploration in Mexico?
Are you serious? They don't control shite now. Frankly, large oil companies have more say geopolitically speaking than most oil producing nations.
The ENTIRE GDP of Saudi Arabia in 2013 was 745 billion dollars.
The revenue of Exxon-Mobil in 2013 was 394 billion dollars.
quote:
Yes, we are now the worlds #1 producer of oil. It hasn't always been like that, though. Which is why Saudi still is trying to control the market by driving oil prices down.
Saudi oil companies can break even around $15/bbl. Where US oil companies break even point is around $40/bbl.
US Oil companies break even lower than $40. Most SHALE production breaks even at $40. Only a few of the pricier ventures in shale don't break even at that level. It just cuts down on exploration. It's not like there's any risk of the company going out of business.
quote:
My problem with this is that at some point we need to separate ourselves from the Saudi's and control our own market.
It's a global market and we have more input than the Saudis. Frankly though as I pointed out.. we're a consumer nation and lower oil prices benefit every single level of our economy EXCEPT for the oil producers. Oil prices are basically a VAT.
quote:
Sure they will, at some point. Until then, these families will be on some sort of government assistance until the jobs pick back up.
Or you know, get jobs, since the economy is going quite well. It would make sense though that oil workers would immediately look for government assistance.. after all, it's what their companies do
This post was edited on 1/26/15 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:11 pm to WaveHog
quote:
what are you trying to suggest? because oil prices fell after the economy collapsed.
Actually, no. Prices of bbl of oil had started falling in November of 2007. Had a rise in the middle of the recession, then bottomed out in January of 2009 at 36.51/bbl.
quote:
and would protecting the wild make us dependent? we're a net exporter now.
Its not about protecting the wild.
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I agree. and the oligarchy/monopolization by OPEC is the reason oil prices have been so high for the past 5+ years. the market is at their whim, and they decided to keep output low and prices high until recently.
Someone(US)needs to break away from OPEC. As we are now the leading producer of oil, I would anticipate that happening within the next three years.
We don't need $130/bbl, that's stupid. Im not suggesting that.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:21 pm to piggilicious
quote:
it's .89, not 1.89???? was that at kroger
Yep! $1/gallon off!
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:29 pm to Miz Piggy
It's not the 1970's.. OPEC doesn't control the world oil market.
OPEC represents about 1/3rd of the world's oil production or roughly 30 million barrels per day.
The US represents approximately 10 million alone.
OPEC can't cut production because supply exceeds demand. Demand has been flat for the past 5 years but production has increased by over 7 million barrels a day in non-OPEC countries.
OPEC is done. They can't come back.. They produce a non-flexible amount of oil. There are no practical ways for them to increase their production, only slow it down. When prices rise, the markets work to push money into oil exploration and production, like they have in the United States. Oil prices fall, and there are cuts.. and the money moves elsewhere. That's what a market based economy does.
OPEC represents about 1/3rd of the world's oil production or roughly 30 million barrels per day.
The US represents approximately 10 million alone.
OPEC can't cut production because supply exceeds demand. Demand has been flat for the past 5 years but production has increased by over 7 million barrels a day in non-OPEC countries.
OPEC is done. They can't come back.. They produce a non-flexible amount of oil. There are no practical ways for them to increase their production, only slow it down. When prices rise, the markets work to push money into oil exploration and production, like they have in the United States. Oil prices fall, and there are cuts.. and the money moves elsewhere. That's what a market based economy does.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:45 pm to Hawgeye
My thought is if Exxon and friends can't produce for less than their break even point, which is $XX.X, lower your break even point like every other business in the US has to do.
Maybe you can even use the oil subsidies you get from the US government to research how to lower your break even point!
That said, buy XOM, COP, etc
Maybe you can even use the oil subsidies you get from the US government to research how to lower your break even point!
That said, buy XOM, COP, etc
Posted on 1/26/15 at 7:06 pm to Hawgeye
Cheap oil is awful for me, I'm looking at getting laid off soon. I'm interested to see if lower gas prices spur the economy like people think they will. A large part of the recovery that has happened has been from the energy sector. That growth has evaporated overnight and there are a lot of people like me who are looking for something else to do until oil comes back.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 7:17 pm to Ham Malone
I think it will be back, some what by summer.
Just hold tight.
Not $100/bbl back....but $60-$70 bbl back
Just hold tight.
Not $100/bbl back....but $60-$70 bbl back
Posted on 1/26/15 at 8:25 pm to Hawgeye
All of my clients are budgeting based off $50/barrel for the rest of the year. $70 would be great, its in the sweet spot of providing a reasonable price at the pump and a healthy enough profit that small producers keep investing.
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