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Breakdown of Biggest Game of Weekend by Numbers (S&P)
Posted on 10/21/14 at 2:54 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 2:54 pm
100 = average, anything above is above average, below is below average. Rankings are national rankings.
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT KENTUCKY
When MSU has the ball :
MSU Rush - 133.6, #11
UK Rush D - 96.3, #79
MSU Pass - 163.4, #2
UK Pass D - 97.1, #78
When UK has the ball :
UK Rush - 111.5, #47
MSU Rush D - 151.3, #4
UK Pass - 100.9, #67
MSU Pass D - 143.3, #8
Pretty clear advantages for State all over the field. Gotta think State has to turn the ball over a bunch to lose this game.
SOUTH CAROLINA AT AUBURN
When Auburn has the ball :
AU Rush - 140.5, #6
USCe Rush D - 96.3, #80
AU Pass - 175.1, #1
USCe Pass D - 103.2, #68
When USCe has the ball :
USCe Rush - 130.1, #14
AU Rush D - 135.8, #12
USCe Pass - 120.2, #32
AU Pass D - 129.9, #17
Pretty decent matchup between AU defense and USCe offense, but Auburn should march up and down the field (as we already knew).
ALABAMA AT TENNESSEE
When Alabama has the ball :
UA Rush - 127.1, #19
UT Rush D - 126.6, #19
UA Pass - 160.5, #4
UT Pass D -151.5, #6
When Tennessee has the ball :
UT Rush - 102.6, #66
UA Rush D - 188.5, #1
UT Pass - 111.6, #45
UA Pass D - 142.0, #9
Stats bear up the convential wisdom : Tennessee should be able to hold it's own defensivley until the dam breaks. Very similar to Ole Miss, but if Alabama shows up in Arkansas mode this one could be a battle. Vols will struggle to do much of anything offensively with their line against a resurgent Alabama defensive front.
OLE MISS AT LSU
When Ole Miss has the ball :
OM Rush - 119.6, #31
LSU Rush D - 122.6, #21
OM Pass - 152.5, #5
LSU Pass D - 136.1, #12
When LSU has the ball :
LSU Rush - 121.1, #29
OM Rush D - 147.5, #5
LSU Pass - 126.4, #20
OM Pass D - 181.9, #2
Gotta think LSU will need to force a few turnovers to score enough to win. Will be interesting to watch LSU try to pound the Ole Miss front. On the flip side, Ole Miss has been solid but not great offensively. LSU will have to match Ole Miss' defensive effort to have a chance.
Should be a fun weekend! Wish all these games weren't at the same time.
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT KENTUCKY
When MSU has the ball :
MSU Rush - 133.6, #11
UK Rush D - 96.3, #79
MSU Pass - 163.4, #2
UK Pass D - 97.1, #78
When UK has the ball :
UK Rush - 111.5, #47
MSU Rush D - 151.3, #4
UK Pass - 100.9, #67
MSU Pass D - 143.3, #8
Pretty clear advantages for State all over the field. Gotta think State has to turn the ball over a bunch to lose this game.
SOUTH CAROLINA AT AUBURN
When Auburn has the ball :
AU Rush - 140.5, #6
USCe Rush D - 96.3, #80
AU Pass - 175.1, #1
USCe Pass D - 103.2, #68
When USCe has the ball :
USCe Rush - 130.1, #14
AU Rush D - 135.8, #12
USCe Pass - 120.2, #32
AU Pass D - 129.9, #17
Pretty decent matchup between AU defense and USCe offense, but Auburn should march up and down the field (as we already knew).
ALABAMA AT TENNESSEE
When Alabama has the ball :
UA Rush - 127.1, #19
UT Rush D - 126.6, #19
UA Pass - 160.5, #4
UT Pass D -151.5, #6
When Tennessee has the ball :
UT Rush - 102.6, #66
UA Rush D - 188.5, #1
UT Pass - 111.6, #45
UA Pass D - 142.0, #9
Stats bear up the convential wisdom : Tennessee should be able to hold it's own defensivley until the dam breaks. Very similar to Ole Miss, but if Alabama shows up in Arkansas mode this one could be a battle. Vols will struggle to do much of anything offensively with their line against a resurgent Alabama defensive front.
OLE MISS AT LSU
When Ole Miss has the ball :
OM Rush - 119.6, #31
LSU Rush D - 122.6, #21
OM Pass - 152.5, #5
LSU Pass D - 136.1, #12
When LSU has the ball :
LSU Rush - 121.1, #29
OM Rush D - 147.5, #5
LSU Pass - 126.4, #20
OM Pass D - 181.9, #2
Gotta think LSU will need to force a few turnovers to score enough to win. Will be interesting to watch LSU try to pound the Ole Miss front. On the flip side, Ole Miss has been solid but not great offensively. LSU will have to match Ole Miss' defensive effort to have a chance.
Should be a fun weekend! Wish all these games weren't at the same time.
9
Posted on 10/21/14 at 2:56 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Should be a fun weekend! Wish all these games weren't at the same time.
They aren't.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 2:57 pm to TheCaterpillar
Out of all the work he put into that you post to criticize that? What a dick .
Posted on 10/21/14 at 2:58 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
They aren't.
All except State-UK, yes they are.
Ole Miss @ LSU : 7:15 ESPN
USCe @ Auburn : 7:30 SECN
Bama @ UT : 7:30 ESPN2
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:00 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Ole Miss has been solid but not great offensively
Stats can be deceiving... We usually sit on the ball the entire second half cause our opponents cant get across the midfield stripe.
This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MSU Pass D - 143.3, #8
Surprising.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:02 pm to reggierayreb
quote:
Stats can be deceiving... We usually sit on the ball the entire second half cause our opponents cant get across the midfield stripe.
The S&P stats strip out all that type of stuff.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:04 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Very nice post. Have an upvote.
There's a possibility for some good games this weekend.
Gotta think the closest one will be OM/LSU, even though the numbers say otherwise.
There's a possibility for some good games this weekend.
Gotta think the closest one will be OM/LSU, even though the numbers say otherwise.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:06 pm to Wanderin Reb
quote:
Very nice post. Have an upvote.
There's a possibility for some good games this weekend.
Gotta think the closest one will be OM/LSU, even though the numbers say otherwise.
Unless crazy things happen gotta think Auburn and State take USCe and UK to the shed.
I think Alabama probably pulls away in the 2nd half but who knows with the way they've been on the road, especially against a salty Tennessee defense.
Curious to see how LSU looks. I think Ole Miss will go in there nasty and ready to play. Want to see if LSU has improved since State/Auburn on defense and offense, or if they just are who they are.
This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
good post
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:20 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Does this factor in Special Teams? Because I feel like that is really the only aspect where LSU has a big advantage.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'll have on all 3, plus an Ohio school @ State Penn Pederasts at the same time.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:24 pm to Eric Nies Grind Time
quote:
Does this factor in Special Teams? Because I feel like that is really the only aspect where LSU has a big advantage.
The overall number does, here is a breakdown of the teams mentioned above by F+ for Special Teams:
#4 - LSU (5.1%)
#22 - Ole Miss (2.7%)
#25 - Auburn (2.3%)
#61 - Mississippi State (0.3$)
#93 - Kentucky (-1.5%)
#98 - Alabama (-2.2%)
#51 - Tennessee (0.8%)
Football Outsiders F+
This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 3:24 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MSU Pass D - 143.3, #8
But...but...but....UAB!
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Good stuff.
You must be the rare Good Bammer!
You must be the rare Good Bammer!
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:25 pm to BammerDelendaEst
quote:
You must be the rare Good Bammer!
I gots me some degrees from that there college and urthing.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MSU Pass - 163.4, #2
quote:
OM Pass - 152.5, #5
Dak is a better passer than Bo as well.
This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:29 pm to reggierayreb
quote:
Stats can be deceiving... We usually sit on the ball the entire second half cause our opponents cant get across the midfield stripe.
We're pretty one-dimensional on offense, IIRC
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:30 pm to DCRebel
quote:
We're pretty one-dimensional on offense, IIRC
I think the way Freeze has adjusted his style and pace of play to win games is pretty impressive. He's a guru offensively and he made the decision that Ole Miss had a better chance to win most games by slowing down compared to what I am sure he really wants to do.
Really impressive. Guy is a really good coach.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Nice work!
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