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The Gurley Effect - Updated 9/12

Posted on 5/21/14 at 4:20 pm
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86474 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 4:20 pm
9/12- Updated to reflect 2014. I left the OP basically how it was in May including the stuff about Hutson. Although my main point is about Gurley.


I see all these folks on here predicting our season next year and saying 4 maybe even 5 losses. References to last year's UT, missouri, hell vandy games get brought up. Trap games with Arky and frickin Kentucky? Folks..I don't think yall quite grasp how important Gurley is to this team. He could legitimately be the best player in America. So let's look at what UGA has done when Gurley plays for at least a quarter of a game:

2012: 12-2
2013: 8-3
2014: 1-0

So that's 21-5 total. Let's look closer.

2012 losses:

SC- No way around it, we got whooped. Everybody on our team sucked. Nothing really to say. Loss here is pinned on everybody.
Bama- 122 yards and 2 TDs against the best defense in America. Nobody else on their schedule punished that defense like Gurley did. If our D didn't give up 350 yards rushing we're national champs. Loss pinned on defense.

2013 losses:

CU- Todd didn't play a full game, but still played most of it. 154 yards and 2 TDs. Anytime you score 35 you should win. Loss pinned on defense and a costly ST miscue.
AU- 158 APY and a touchdown. Was still slightly less than 100% but he was good enough. We were winning with 1 minute left. I think we know who to pin this on.
NU- 183 APY and a touchdown. Pretty crappy game all the way around, but again he did his part.

So what's my point? My point is that in the 5 losses we've had that Todd has played in, there is only ONE that you can say "Gurley really didn't help us out much. He definitely could have done more" that being SC '12. 1 game, out of 26 played, that Todd did not do his part and carry his weight.



I'll also add somewhat of a hybrid point here regarding Mason. People want to compare him to Joe Cox...so let's put Todd Gurley on that 09 team and see what we get. We went 7-5 regular season, I'll skip the 8 wins and look at the 5 losses.

OSU- It was a 10-17 game midway through the 4th (before the refs threw an indescribably bad PF on reshad jones and OSU scored again). Our leading rusher had 87 yards. If I'm not mistaken he also lost a fumble (could have branden smith, not positive). Knowing that it was a 1 TD game with about 8 minutes left to go, does anyone really think we would have been the same in that game with Gurley in the backfield instead of Samuel? Call this a wash if you must, but you could easily turn this into a win.
LSU- Our 2 leading rushers COMBINED for 44 yards and 0 touchdowns. Despite that, we were winning with 1 minute left. This is a win with Gurley.
UT- we got shellacked, gurley wouldnt' have made much difference
UF- same. They were simply much better than us.
UK- leading rusher had 77 yards and 0 TDs. Ealey also had a critical fumble. We were winning in the 4th, tied late, and lost by 7 late. You can't tell me Todd wouldn't have made the difference.

So even with Joe Cox and our crappy 09 defense, you're talking about 7-5 regular season turning into 10-2 with Gurley. Let that sink in.


I don't know how Mason will turn out. I have no idea really based on very limited information. But what I DO know, for certain, is what we have in Gurley. And as long as he is lining up in the backfield and is even 90% healthy, I like our chances against anyone we play this year.
This post was edited on 9/12/14 at 7:37 am
Posted by Chef Leppard
Member since Sep 2011
11739 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 4:36 pm to
yea i like gurley too
Posted by Charlestondawg
South Cackalack
Member since Oct 2013
976 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 5:09 pm to
You gave me wood with this post
Posted by SthGADawg
Member since Nov 2007
7035 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 5:11 pm to
solid post...and add to that the stable behind Gurley...and the improved D...which will be there...all HM needs to do this season is be decent and not make a ton of stupid mistakes and we should have a solid year...I'm definitely a Gurley man


now go listen to some FGL and enjoy your evening...
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25597 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 5:32 pm to
You win in this conference by running the football.

There are no passing QBs even close to getting heisman consideration.
But there are some damn fine running games.

2013 Auburn: 48 rushing TDs
2012 Bama: 37 rushing TDs
2011 LSU: 35 rushing TDs
2010 Auburn: 41 rushing TDs
2009 Bama: 31 rushing TDs
2008 Florida: 41 rushing TDs
2007 LSU: 35 rushing TDs

It shouldn't be a shocker that our best years in that run also mirror our best running games.
2012 UGA: 32 rushing TDs
2007 UGA: 32 rushing TDs

Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
14198 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

and the improved D...which will be there


Nobody knows this....we have a new staff...a couple of transfers ...etc. I think it'll absolutely turn out to be better over time...but next year?

Can Gurley tackle and cover deep routes?
Posted by dawg4lyfe
Member since May 2012
11662 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 5:51 pm to
Do you really think our defense could be any worse this year? We could have had our entire 2 deep on the field and somebody would still have been wide open last year
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
64001 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 6:47 pm to
Burnette opened alot of holes for todd the last two years and blocked well downfield.

Will his replacement play at that level?

What if an already depleted OL starts getting banged up through the season?
Posted by K9
wayx....BOBO IN '19
Member since Sep 2012
24025 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 6:51 pm to
yeah, a good RB needs at least a decent o-line. Plus he needs a QB that won't allow the defenses to crowd the box, can Mason be that guy? hopefully, but to assume Todd can carry this team alone is dumb.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
64001 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 7:07 pm to
Yep, have to be a complete team in the SEC.

AnM had Johnny for two years and was 3rd in the West both years. He set records and won the Heisman.

If AnM was still in their old conference, it would have been AnM vs Notre Dame for the NC in 2012, and AnM vs FSU last year.

But that's all beside the point.

It takes more than 1 spectacular player to win it all in the SEC.

Remember Hershel was here more than just 1980...
This post was edited on 5/21/14 at 7:08 pm
Posted by K9
wayx....BOBO IN '19
Member since Sep 2012
24025 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 7:21 pm to
quote:

It takes more than 1 spectacular player to win it all in the SEC.



Even Tebow, needed a defense to win. in 2007, UF had major turnover on defense. Tebow won the Heisman, but they ended 9-4 or some shite. Cam, too, he didn't have a dominate defense, but it was at least an opportunistic, turnover creating defense. Plus, Cam was a QB and made you respect both of his elite talents. HErschel had a bad arse defense, and still needed a miracle to get to the MNC game.
Posted by DawgCountry
Great State of GA
Member since Sep 2012
30552 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 7:26 pm to
:GurleyBoner:
Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
14198 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 8:21 pm to
quote:

Do you really think our defense could be any worse this year?


Could be...just because our new DC is the nutz doesn't mean we'll instantly improve. New coaches bring learning curves....or has Pruitt found a way around that?

Also...even if we're as good or better than last year we won't have Murray setting records either. I could see is struggling through next year with an unproven QB and new defensive staff.

I hope I'm wrong but I haven't started drinking the Kool aid yet. One kickass RB does not a team make.....
Posted by FinleyStreet
Member since Aug 2011
7901 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 9:23 pm to
quote:

And as long as he is lining up in the backfield and is even 90% healthy, I like our chances against anyone we play this year.



Well no kidding. But his health is a legitimate question mark. That's a big part of why people aren't aiming high in their predictions.
Posted by gatorhata9
Dallas, TX
Member since Dec 2010
26174 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 6:53 am to
quote:

But his health is a legitimate question mark


It shouldn't be any more of a concern for Gurley than any other player on the team
Posted by davesdawgs
Georgia - Class of '75
Member since Oct 2008
20307 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 7:17 am to
While I agree overall, The Gurley Effect would be a lot more effective with a more effective OL. Murray put up record passing numbers for a reason: our OL has been a lot better at pass blocking than run blocking.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86474 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 7:32 am to
quote:

a good RB needs at least a decent o-line


Our OL should be "decent". We've certainly had worse under Richt.

quote:

Plus he needs a QB that won't allow the defenses to crowd the box, can Mason be that guy?


Why not? Look at my OP using Joe Cox. If Gurley was on that team we go 10-2. Plus, it's not like we're trotting out walkons. Even though Mason isn't Murray, we still have JSW, Mitchell, Bennett, and Conley that people have to account for.

quote:

but to assume Todd can carry this team alone is dumb


I'm not saying he'll have to do it alone, but he certainly improves our chances in every game.
Posted by gulfportdawg
Gulfport, Ms.
Member since Sep 2012
729 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 7:38 am to
TG will be a first round draft choice, but UGA's average OL, along with an unproven QB, thenadd to that a defense that may need 2 years to really improve equals maybe a 9-3 regular season at best.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86474 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 7:38 am to
quote:

just because our new DC is the nutz doesn't mean we'll instantly improve


When you're coming off of statistically the worst defense your school has ever fielded in over 100 years of football, it's kinda hard not to instantly improve. Especially when the biggest thing the new guy is doing is rectifying the #1 biggest problem of the last guy (simplifying it so players actually understand and will actually be lined up before the play). Plus, Pruitt has shown he can succeed in year 1, since he just won a natty last year in his first year there.

quote:

Also...even if we're as good or better than last year we won't have Murray setting records either


We don't need that either. The reason we needed so many Murray heroics and records last year was to balance out our atrocious defense. If we had a bama level defense, we wouldnt' need Murray to win games by himself.

quote:

One kickass RB does not a team make.....


Nobody said we're going undefeated simply because we have Gurley. All I'm doing is presenting facts about how our team plays with Gurley in the game, and those stats are pretty solid.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86474 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 7:40 am to
quote:

But his health is a legitimate question mark


What about his health?

Nobody questioned his health in 2012 when he played the entire season and didnt' miss a play due to injury. The only reason he was so gimpy last year is becasue of a devastating high ankle sprain that could happen to anyone playing football. It's not like it's a recurring high school injury, or a head injury that can frick with someone for a while. By the time September rolls around there shouldn't be any questions at all about his health.
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