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OT-Preakness Stakes

Posted on 5/14/14 at 9:18 pm
Posted by Litigator
Hog Jaw, Arkansas
Member since Oct 2013
7536 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 9:18 pm
Post positions and odds were set today for Saturday's Preakness Stakes with California Chrome listed as the 3-5 favorite. LINK
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54719 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 9:38 pm to
Only 3 carried over from derby and #2 - #6 dropped out. 70% are new horses.
Posted by Litigator
Hog Jaw, Arkansas
Member since Oct 2013
7536 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 9:52 pm to
A short field and Commanding Curve and Danza are skipping it.
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54719 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:11 pm to
Interesting that Motion has one in the race.
Posted by Pigfeet
Ark Mods are Fascists
Member since Mar 2010
19783 posts
Posted on 5/15/14 at 1:24 pm to
California Chrome has a Michael Sam injury

espn article
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54719 posts
Posted on 5/16/14 at 1:02 pm to
So any picks for tomorrow?

not much discussion here yet and the race is tomorrow.
Posted by Litigator
Hog Jaw, Arkansas
Member since Oct 2013
7536 posts
Posted on 5/16/14 at 5:53 pm to
I guess it is about time to start crunching numbers.

Edit: don't want to show our hand too early and adversely affect the odds with the world watching and all.
This post was edited on 5/16/14 at 5:56 pm
Posted by Litigator
Hog Jaw, Arkansas
Member since Oct 2013
7536 posts
Posted on 5/16/14 at 6:07 pm to
May edit by post time but top 5 appear to be:

(1) California Chrome
(2) Social Inclusion
(3) Ride on Curlin
(4) Dynamic Impact
(5) Kid Cruz

DRF analysis LINK

Predicteform analysis has California Chrome as the obvious favorite, Social Inclusion as a true contender, Ride on Curlin and Kid Cruz as fringe contenders, and Dynamic Impact as a regressor. LINK
This post was edited on 5/17/14 at 12:27 am
Posted by SunHog
Illinois
Member since Jan 2011
9202 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 4:23 pm to
(3,8,10) Trifecta

(7) Show

This post was edited on 5/17/14 at 4:32 pm
Posted by Pigfeet
Ark Mods are Fascists
Member since Mar 2010
19783 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 4:34 pm to
2
5
10
Posted by beebefootballfan
Member since Mar 2011
19033 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 5:13 pm to
Social
Cruz
Chrome

Posted by Pigfeet
Ark Mods are Fascists
Member since Mar 2010
19783 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 5:26 pm to
I'm done with Bayern and WILL pick CC for the Belmont
Posted by SunHog
Illinois
Member since Jan 2011
9202 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 5:37 pm to
Hit the trifecta!
Posted by Litigator
Hog Jaw, Arkansas
Member since Oct 2013
7536 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 5:56 pm to
quote:

SunHog


Excellent call! I had a tri key box and exacta key box with California Chrome on top as the key horse and Social Inclusion, Ride on Curlin and Dynamic Impact in the box. The $1 tri paid $38. No big payday as the top 3 were all contenders going in but a payday nonetheless.

quote:

Pigfeet


While California Chrome looks unstoppable the 1 1/2 mile Belmont has played a Triple Crown spoiler in the past. The question will be whether there will be a closer that can catch him with the added distance. Ride on Curlin might very well run him down in the long stretch but we'll need to see who all gets in.
Posted by Pigfeet
Ark Mods are Fascists
Member since Mar 2010
19783 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 6:12 pm to
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54719 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 7:54 pm to
quote:

Litigator


This was a 2 horse race and the 2nd horse was closing but chrome looked like there was something left in the tank. Pretty sure the next will not be triple crown winner with that many sitting out and resting today.That first part was a great ride by the jock getting the good early break.
Posted by Litigator
Hog Jaw, Arkansas
Member since Oct 2013
7536 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 9:20 pm to
Ride On Curlin was closing fast and it was hard to tell whether he had contact with Social Inclusion coming down the stretch. I think he's capable of winning the Belmont but as you note we'll see what fresh horses show up.

Preakness results chart. LINK
This post was edited on 5/18/14 at 9:36 am
Posted by RunningBlake
Member since Aug 2011
4106 posts
Posted on 5/17/14 at 10:49 pm to
I will bet against CC in the Belmont just because of history. But I would love to be wrong.
Posted by Bear-O-Dactyl
tRock
Member since Oct 2012
1171 posts
Posted on 5/18/14 at 10:22 am to
quote:

Pretty sure the next will not be triple crown winner with that many sitting out and resting today.


My exact thought process. Also, the odds on CC in the Belmont will be miserable. Even worse than the Preakness. Might be worth your money to throw in on a long shot, since they have regularly performed pretty well in the Belmont.
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