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The Game: The GOP Field Is Practically Set

Posted on 7/13/15 at 8:38 am
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35606 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 8:38 am
"All in The Game" - Traditional West Baltimore

The political bullshite game is ramping up for 2016. We all know the Dems have Hillary Clinton, a crazy looking socialist, Tommy Carcetti (Littlefinger aka Martin O'Malley), and Jim Webb. Looks like a coast to the nomination for Clinton, but still no certainty.

The GOP has a much more interesting and entertaining primary ahead. 16 different candidates have put their hat in the ring. Setting up in fighting for the fractions of groups infighting within the party.

Donald Trump has set the GOP primary on fire with his neo-nationalist agenda of "act right or get smacked right" foreign policy and the plan to have illegals build a giant border fence only to have Mexico pay for it. His real appeal is his willingness to fight back against the PC police. Tapping conservative anger over the direction of society.

He's got no chance at victory, but has given today's new addition Governor Scott Walker a game plan to be a formidable force in the nomination process. Walker has a lot of conservative support after busting up public sector unions in Wisconson. He'll play to get the conservative rage machine behind him imho, and just try to collect enough moderates to put him over the top. He has a real shot at winning imo.

Then there sit the other three hopefuls with a shot at winning: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich. All three have issues with having pure conservative bonafides. Bush is seen as a RINO, but had the corporate machine throwing him hundreds of millions of dollars.

Rubio is still fighting against his Gang of 6 immigration proposal, and we can clearly see this will be a difficulty based on the current strength of Trump's support. He's also fighting for the same money cascading toward Bush's PAC and campaign. That being said, he's the most natural politician of the bunch. He has positions with specifics. He's pragmatic. He's handsome with a pretty brownish family. He's probably the most likely to slay the Bush.

Then you have pragmatic John Kasich. Seems a natural Veep, but his age and message suggests he's in it to win it. He's very popular in Ohio, a purple state if there ever was one. He's vulnerable from taking the medicaid expansion money, but has a history of being an effective executive that should serve him well if he can survive to have a good showing in the early primaries.

Now to the rest of the three ring circus. Rand Paul has potential in a general from young voters but that appeal doesn't help him in a primary. His campaign has also been non existent in recent months. Maybe it's better to keep quiet for a while, but he risks hitting the gas too late.

Cruz is a firebrand who doesn't have institutional support after the debt ceiling debacle but has some pull with the base. Who he eventually throws his support behind could be critical for Scott Walker.

Ben Carson is still doing well in the polls. He too is a conservative favorite and too who he supports will be important for the candidates with a real shot.

Finally, I'm going to bitch about Bobby Jindal. Some fiscal conservative, he used a bunch of one time money to plug budget deficits in Louisiana, then tried to wash his hands of the impending disaster. He didn't wash his hands completely, as any tax increases had to be "revenue neutral". To the point he came up with the convoluted plan to raise the cigarette taxes and give students a tax credit that they never see and goes straight to the universities. Selling his soil for political gain and not gaining anything. His ties to Tony Perkins suggests he's a true believer in conservative Christianity and will be whoring himself out to capture the religious vote. I hope the religious right sees through his game.

So fine observers of the SECrOT, who do you see getting the nomination?

My money is on Rubio, but the campaign is long and full of pitfalls.
Posted by betweenthebara
nowhere
Member since May 2013
6183 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 8:41 am to
quote:

Looks like a coast to the presidency for Clinton


Fify.




Posted by Rebelgator
Pripyat Bridge
Member since Mar 2010
39543 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 8:45 am to
Of course you're a liberal...
Posted by PrivatePublic
Member since Nov 2012
17848 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 8:47 am to
TL;DR: We are a country of pussies and pussies vote for pussies. Welcome, President Clinton.
Posted by betweenthebara
nowhere
Member since May 2013
6183 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:01 am to
I'm looking forward to the Clinton melt almost as much as this upcoming college football season.
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:03 am to
I'd say Rubio gets it, with Kasich being the wild card. A ticket with those two would be a very formidable opponent for Hillary.
Posted by TigerPanzer
Orlando
Member since Sep 2006
9476 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:07 am to
Bush is your next Repub candidate. He's the only semi-credible, semi-sane banana of the bunch.
Posted by 3nOut
Central Texas, TX
Member since Jan 2013
28819 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:11 am to
I would be happy to vote for any of Paul, Walker, Cruz, Carson, or Rubio on the day of general election. If they're all still in the race in Primaries I will probably vote for Rubio.

If it's Bush at the GE, I may go the way of my parents in 92 and vote 3rd party.
Posted by Wishnitwas1998
where TN, MS, and AL meet
Member since Oct 2010
58107 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:39 am to
Probably Jeb, which ain't good



It's a frickin clown show and if either Walker or Rand don't get the nomination they've already lost, Hilary will steamroll the rest of them

I am interested in Florina, she seems to be real good at firebombing the left without coming across as desperate. She will never get the nomination or win the general (in 2016 anyways) but I think she'd be an EXCELLENT VP choice so far
This post was edited on 7/13/15 at 9:40 am
Posted by Rebelgator
Pripyat Bridge
Member since Mar 2010
39543 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:40 am to
quote:

Rand



I'd rather vote for Trump. At least he doesn't pretend to be sane.
Posted by Stonehog
Platinum Rewards Club
Member since Aug 2011
33329 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:55 am to
quote:

So fine observers of the SECrOT, who do you see getting the nomination?



Like it matters.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35606 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:57 am to
It doesn't matter. Which is why I call it "The Game"
Posted by Stonehog
Platinum Rewards Club
Member since Aug 2011
33329 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 10:02 am to
I mean it doesn't matter because the Republicans don't have a real shot at the presidency. It's Hillary's race to lose.

If Sanders gets the democratic nomination he'll win the presidency too. The Republicans have become the party of right wing nut jobs, racists, and zealots, and their base is literally dying off.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 10:07 am to
quote:

I'd say Rubio gets it, with Kasich being the wild card. A ticket with those two would be a very formidable opponent for Hillary.


Hillary may not be the (D) nominee. She's just not that inspiring of a candidate and lacks both Bill's charisma and BHO's novelty. I would not be a bit shocked to see O'Malley beat her. He's young, articulate, very telegenic (and a musician), and quite frankly has better liberal credentials - which might not be so good in a general election but is very helpful in the primaries.

Since I'll almost certainly be pulling the (R) lever, I really, really hope I'm wrong because Hillary brings a lot more baggage to the table.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 10:08 am to
quote:

I mean it doesn't matter because the Republicans don't have a real shot at the presidency. It's Hillary's race to lose.

If Sanders gets the democratic nomination he'll win the presidency too. The Republicans have become the party of right wing nut jobs, racists, and zealots, and their base is literally dying off.


So that explains the (R) controlled Senate, right?
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 10:15 am to
quote:

So that explains the (R) controlled Senate, right?


No, it doesn't actually. At all.
Posted by Kentucker
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
19351 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 10:22 am to
That's a well-thought-out post. The only thing missing is the inevitable GOP gravitation to social issues. I would like to know what you think about each candidate's stand on them and how that might affect his chances in the election.

In light of recent developments concerning gay marriage and the confederate flag, I would think social conservatives are in a panic about what to pressure GOP candidates with in this campaign. It hasn't been a good year for them.

For the first time in a very long time we might see some actual debate about the item that should always be at the heart of any campaign, economics. Not since Bill Clinton's "It's the economy, stupid," strategy in 1992 has the nation's financial health been the central issue.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 10:34 am to
quote:

No, it doesn't actually. At all.


My post was obviously sarcasm, since senators are elected statewide and thus Republican candidates won statewide elections in all those states.

I could have also reminded Stonehog that overall 38 of 50 states are led by (R) governors, and since the 2012 presidential election Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts have all replaced (D) governors with Republicans - pretty clearly showing that winning is still much more about the candidate and message than the party.

Or I could have done what I should have and recognized that it is just Stonehog and ignored him.

Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 10:39 am to
quote:

In light of recent developments concerning gay marriage and the confederate flag, I would think social conservatives are in a panic about what to pressure GOP candidates with in this campaign. It hasn't been a good year for them.


Actually, the gay marriage ruling along with the upholding of Obamacare are HUGE helps to a national Republican candidate.

As issues, they're off the table. All he's got to say is "the court's ruled. It is time to move on to more important issues" and not even open the door to potential attacks.

The only hot button issue left is immigration, and there's already a (R) split on this one with candidates like Rubio espousing a position that isn't far removed from the one held by most (D) candidates.

As far as the confederate flag goes, it isn't an issue at all.
Posted by Stonehog
Platinum Rewards Club
Member since Aug 2011
33329 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 10:40 am to
quote:

So that explains the (R) controlled Senate, right?


The fact that the Senate is controlled by republicans is actually hurting their chances at the presidency in 2016.
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