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Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:56 pm to 3nOut
Some of y'all need to get it through your thick dumb skulls: you can't stump Trump. End of fricking story.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 1:02 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
I was about to say: "Exceeds expectations? Isn't he gettin' the frick beaten out of him by a dude with no political history whatsoever?"
No, not really... evidenced by his 13.2% margin of victory last night in Wisconsin.
Trump has the most loyal block of support. Roughly 35% of the GOP is completely loyal to Trump and cannot be swayed. Cruz' block of loyal support has probably been closer to 15-20%... while Kasich, Rubio, Carson, etc. had loyal support amounting to 5-15% of the GOP as well.
That is why Trump is leading in the delegate count, and why he will probably enter the convention with the most delegates.
However, Trump is also the most despised by the GOP electorate. While Cruz' block of loyal, passionate support is half the size of Trump's, he's absolutely wiping the floor with Trump when it comes to picking up the support of other candidates as they drop out. He is proving to be the preferred option of the two candidates.... over and over again.
The proof is in the numbers. The combined share of the popular vote in the first 4 early contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada) looked like this:
32.7%- Trump
20.7%- Cruz
8.4%- Kasich
38.2%- Others
So when Bush, Carson, Rubio and all the candidates before them dropped out, where did their support go? Well check out the combined share of the popular vote of the most recent three contests (Arizona, Utah, and Wisconsin):
43.4%- Cruz
36.7%- Trump
13.2%- Kasich
So if you compare the most recent three contests (All post-Rubio) with the first four contests, this is how much of the vote share each of the 3 remaining candidates has captured:
+22.7%: Cruz
+4.8%: Kasich
+4.0%: Trump
Trump has barely benefited at all from Bush, Carson, Rubio, etc. all getting out of the race. Evidence suggests that nearly 3/4 of the support that was out there for candidates has shifted towards Cruz.... and Kasich has actually claimed more of it than Trump!!
This is a huge problem for Trump. He may be able to get 40%... 45%... or maybe even 50% (for the first time) of the vote in New York and New Jersey, but evidence suggests he simply can't beat Cruz head-to-head outside of the Northeast and the Deep South. That's going to be a problem for him.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 1:21 pm to Gradual_Stroke
quote:
Some of y'all need to get it through your thick dumb skulls: you can't stump Trump. End of fricking story.
You say that as emphatically as those on this very board who said that almost no Rubio support would ever shift towards Cruz if Rubio got out of the race. Well evidence now shows that almost all of it did.
... or the people a few weeks ago who swore that no Kasich supporter would every support Cruz. Well evidence now suggests that a good portion of his support ends up voting for Cruz on primary day, and the majority of Kasivh voters say they would support Cruz in a 2-man race.
... or the folks who said that Cruz had no appeal outside the South or in caucus states. Yet he just won a primary state that is traditionally "blue" by more than 13%!
Every single week people keep saying, "Forget it, it's over." Yet it increasingly looks far from over. Ten days ago, the prediction markets gave Trump a 70.2% chance of winning the nomination. Yet as of Monday, the likelihood had dropped down to 49.8%... and that was before he was shellacked in Wisconsin last night!
It's far from over.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 1:23 pm to BHMKyle
Kasich should have been the choice. Cruz is a religious weirdo and Trump an arrogant clown
Posted on 4/6/16 at 1:27 pm to BHMKyle
even Cruz's wife doesn't like him as much as you seem to This post was edited on 4/6/16 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 4/6/16 at 1:28 pm to TeLeFaWx
quote:
He just needs to stick with, "I will be a great President, folks. Believe me, we're going to make the best deals, and we will do very, very well."
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:01 pm to Dawgholio
Cruz would get destroyed be either democrat. Not enough extreme right wing idiots out there.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:06 pm to TT9
Honestly, there isn't a republican on the ticket that stands a chance when you look at the numbers. Their only hope is that Bernie beats Hillary up in a bad way in the coming debate, and she still wins. Even then...the numbers don't lie.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:20 pm to Gradual_Stroke
quote:
even Cruz's wife doesn't like him as much as you seem to
One could guess that Ms. Cruz was contemplating suicide. She claims she was just going through a rough patch. I could guess, based on the skeletons usually found in the closets of the publically super-religious, that she found out something distressing about her husband.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:20 pm to Gradual_Stroke
DP, dammit.
This post was edited on 4/6/16 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:21 pm to BHMKyle
Did he not tell a lie or something? Dadgum titmouth liar!
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:26 pm to cas4t
quote:
Their only hope is that Bernie beats Hillary up in a bad way in the coming debate, and she still wins
This scenario could lead to a lot of young people staying away from the polls in November. I would really hate to see that happen. There has been so much enthusiasm shown this in election period by very young voters.
Of course, on the Republican side there has been a lot of new voters, too. However, they're motivated by an entirely different reason, anger.
This may be the most interesting convention and election cycle ever.
This post was edited on 4/6/16 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:52 pm to Dawgholio
quote:
Kasich should have been the choice. Cruz is a religious weirdo and Trump an arrogant clown
Aside from the fact that Cruz claims to be an evangelical Christian, what evidence is there that Cruz is a "religious weirdo?" I see this tossed around all the time, yet there never seems to be any concrete evidence.
It's amazing to me that somehow being passionate about one's Christian faith (in private for the most part) is a quality that somehow makes one unfit for a job?..... yet passion about any other thing under the planet has no consequence when it comes to being fit for a job.
The bigotry displayed by some people towards Christians is simply disgusting.
It was well known that Mitt Romney was a devout Mormon. I never heard of or saw one Christian say they would not vote for Romney because of his Mormon faith, nor did I ever see anyone describe Romney as a "religious weirdo" because of it. Romney's religion was often noted, but for the most part off limits.
Why is it that society can say someone is a "religious weirdo" and therefore not fit for a job?... and that's okay.... but yet if someone says the same thing about a Mormon, a Jew, a Muslim, or even a homosexual then it makes that person a bigot?
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:53 pm to Gradual_Stroke
quote:
even Cruz's wife doesn't like him as much as you seem to
The majority of Republicans in EVERY, SINGLE STATE don't like Trump as much as you do.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 3:03 pm to TT9
quote:
Cruz would get destroyed be either democrat. Not enough extreme right wing idiots out there.
A Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania released today shows Cruz and Hillary tied at 43% in a head-to-head contest. This is the same state that has voted Democrat in six consecutive elections.
The very respected Marquette poll of Wisconsin last week showed Cruz and Hillary tied at 43%. Wisconsin has not voted Republican since 1984.
The most recent poll of Arizona shows Cruz leading Clinton there by 6%...on pace with how Mitt Romney polled there four years ago.
The most recent poll of Ohio shows Cruz leading Clinton 47% to 45% in the Buckeye State.... a state that neither McCain nor Romney could win for the GOP.
There is no evidence that suggests that Cruz is not electable in a general election. None.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 3:08 pm to BHMKyle
Cruz is a stupid ugly cunt. frick Ted Cruz.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 3:16 pm to Gradual_Stroke
Show me where Ted Cruz touched your taco.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 3:17 pm to 3nOut
Don't be mad that Trump is buttfricking Cruz every step of the way. You can't fricking stump him.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 3:19 pm to Gradual_Stroke
Ummmm.... Pretty sure that Ted Cruz violated mississippi law in Wisconsin last night if you know what I mean.
Burrito right in the taco sort of way.
Burrito right in the taco sort of way.
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