re: Antonin Scalia passes away in West Texas

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Obama will nominate, but it will be a meaningless gesture. The Senate will certainly reject no matter who it is. They won't let him tip the court further left with less than a year left in his term.

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There are 44 democrats in the senate plus 2 independents that caucus with the dems. It's pretty safe to say that's 46 votes locked down.

There are 3 republican senators in office that have previously crossed party lines to approve a supreme court nomination. It's like 1 or 2 will again.

There are also several republican senators seeking reelection in blue states this year. Not at all unreasonable to think at least 1 or 2 of them might fear being viewed as obstructionist and end up giving Obama the full 50 votes that he needs. I'd say the odds are at least slightly in Obama's favor here, with one caveat...

The republicans could filibuster. I think it's damn near impossible to imaging that Obama could sway enough republicans to get across the 60 vote mark needed to stop a filibuster. BUT, filibustering a supreme court nomination is unprecedented. This move would play right into the already prevalent idea that republicans are obstructionist. I think this would be a dumb move, probably seal a democratic victory in the election, and basically guarantee that Hillary or Bernie would get to solidify a liberal majority on the court for years to come once the next old timer on the court passes.

The GOP should quickly point out that ALL NINE Justices agreed Obama unconstitutionally appointed recess appointments and that he isn't qualified to fill the position. The GOP best not confirm anyone that guy nominates. They're already on the verge of losing a large and deciding portion of their base for capitulating to so many horrible policies and pissing on the voters who gave them the majority.

Dems in Senate passed a resolution in1960 against election year Supreme Court appointments




August 1960, the Democrat-controlled Senate passed a resolution, S.RES. 334, “Expressing the sense of the Senate that the president should not make recess appointments to the Supreme Court, except to prevent or end a breakdown in the administration of the Court’s business.” Each of President Eisenhower’s SCOTUS appointments had initially been a recess appointment who was later confirmed by the Senate, and the Democrats were apparently concerned that Ike would try to fill any last-minute vacancy that might arise with a recess appointment.


What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

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The republicans could filibuster

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Cruz has already said he would, and I think Rubio said the same.

I see the point Republicans are trying to make, though I think they showed their hand way too soon. I mean barely an hour after his confirmed death they were threatening to block Obama's appointment. But they want to make it a campaign issue. Paint it as the power of the SC hanging in the balance, and delay the nomination until after the election in hopes a Republican wins. It makes sense, but once again they blew their wad and gave all the power back to Obama. He's going to school them again.

I think you're right though. There are some vulnerable Republican Senators up for re-election this November. If it gets to a vote, Obama's nomination will go through. I'm guessing it's going to be that Sri guy they just confirmed 97-0 for a Circuit Judgeship. He's highly respected by both sides and is about as moderate as you can get. It won't be unanimous, but if he's the nomination and it gets to the floor, he'll breeze through, despite the hubris from Cruz, McConnell, Rubio, et al.

For all you guys downvoting and making negative comments about Scalia:

He is the one you have to thank for his decision (District of Columbia v. Heller), holding that the Second Amendment protects the right to posses a firearm at home.

Whoever Obama appoints, if he is allowed to, will certainly not be making decisions like that.

The 1960 resolution was for recess appointments, but every single conservative mentioning it fail to make that distinction.