This is not to be confused with the Preview to the Preview. Nor the Post-view to the Preview. Nor is it to be confused with the actual Viewing.

#8 Mizzou (9-1, 5-1 SEC) at #24 Ole Miss (7-3, 3-3 SEC)
Saturday, November 23rd
6:45 CST on ESPN

Introduction

It seems like every game has been a big game for some time this year. If anything, this week’s game is arguably the biggest. If it’s not because of the opponent, it’s because of the opportunity in front of the Tigers. What are the stakes? Well, you’re reading this on the tRant, so you know what the stakes are. Win this and keep hope alive for an East championship, a possibility thought ludicrous just 5 weeks ago. Lose and begin calculating what Miss Congeniality bowl invites our Tigers.

The Tigers face a very good Ole Miss team at Oxford at night. This will be arguably their toughest road game this year and the atmosphere will no doubt be at fever pitch. The Rebels come off a Hiroshima-level demolishing of Troy, setting an SEC conference record for offense. Before that scares you too badly, this is the same Troy team that Mississippi State hung 62 on earlier this year. But overall, the Rebs have performed well this year. Despite facing a murderous schedule, they have notable wins against Vanderbilt, LSU and the Fighting T-Sips in Austin. They played top 10 teams, Auburn and A&M, very tough. They come into this game on a four-game roll. But those four games look like what tRant imagines our whole schedule looks like, including Idaho, a hapless Arkansas, Troy, and tDeclining LSU.

Things to Watch

For Mizzou, the key will be Franklin’s performance. How does he perform coming off his injury? Is he fully healed? Will he be in sync with the offense? Of only slightly less importance is the Defensive Line performance. Can they get to Wallace? Can they disrupt the potent Ole Miss offense?

While the Tiger DBs play has improved over the course of the year, it seems unreasonable to believe they will choose this game to lock down and shut down a passing game. Mizzou ranks dead last in the SEC in pass defense. Some of this is (as has been noted by Mizzou posters) due to the fact that Mizzou has been in front so often (leading by double digits in every game) that the opponent has been forced to the air to try to get back in the game. Some of it is due to the Steckel’s bend-and-bend-and-bend-but-only-sometimes-break scheme. While some might think this is a homerism, it is backed up by Mizzou’s scoring defense, which ranks 3rd in the conference despite giving up a lot of yards. Suffice it to say that Ole Miss will put up some yards through the air with their three outstanding receivers, Treadwell, Moncrief and Logan.

For Ole Miss, I would say that their game will be determined by the guys in the trenches. Can their O-line open up holes for their quick backs (Scott, Mathers and Walton) and keep Wallace upright? Can their D-line contain Franklin? Don’t expect them to sack him. Ole Miss does not typically rely much on pressure on the QB, notching only 14 sacks on the year. And can the D-Line contain Murphy, Josey and Hansbrough? If Mizzou gets close to its offensive average, especially on the ground, Ole Miss will be in for a long night. And of secondary importance for Ole Miss, does Bo Wallace grind out another gritty performance or does he look a little overmatched against the pressure from Mizzou’s line?

Unit Comparisons

QUARTERBACK: James Franklin comes off an injury and we will see if he can regain his early season form. He was running with authority and being efficient in the passing game. He seemed aware of game situations and was making the right decisions regarding whether to run or pass and finding an open receiver. Bo Wallace is a solid SEC QB, meaning he would be a solid QB pretty much anywhere in the NCAA. He is a gutty performer, with more guts than sizzle. Both backups will see action. Both backups can run. Mauk is a straight-up gunner. I would give a SLIGHT EDGE: MIZZOU (with a caveat that Franklin could underperform in his first game back).

RUNNING BACK: This one is pretty close. Mizzou has racked up more yards on the ground, but these teams look very similar on the ground. 2 or 3 RBs get significant touches in any game on both sides. Neither team is running a prototypical power-run game. Mizzou gets 5.7 per attempt; Ole Miss manages 4.8. The most explosive Rebel RB is Jeff Scott. He did not play versus Arkansas, but got back in the swing against Troy with 11 carries and 54 yards. EVEN

OFFENSIVE LINE: While both teams have pounded out some yards on the ground, Ole Miss’s OL has given up a ton of sacks, 22, an average of 2.2 per game. That weakness has been magnified in SEC play. EDGE: MIZZOU

WIDE RECEIVERS: Like the running backs, these teams’ wide receivers mirror each other in a lot of ways. Both have 3 top receivers: Treadwell, Logan and Moncrief for Ole Miss and Washington, Green-Beckham and Lucas. If you pressed me, I’d give the edge to Mizzou if for no other reason than size. Ole Miss has seen some quality receivers this year, but I don’t believe they’ve seen the depth or size of receiver that Mizzou is going to put onto Vaught-Hemingway. With the tallest OM DB listed at 6’1”, we might see some more jump balls thrown to our small forward receivers. But to avoid being too much of a homer, I’m going to go EVEN.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Mizzou has a ton of sacks. Ole Miss doesn’t. Mizzou has a much better run defense, statistically, than Ole Miss. Ole Miss has some talented young players up front, but for this year, BIG EDGE: MIZZOU.

LINEBACKERS: I don’t care enough to write about these much. Mizzou’s LBs play good team defense. Wilson has a “nose for the ball” and “plays with a high motor.” Amirite? Anyone who knows anything about Ole Miss’ LBers, feel free to break them down. EDGE: ??

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD: Based upon statistics, Ole Miss’ defensive backfield is far superior to Mizzou’s. They gave up a lot of yards to A&M (who doesn’t?), but are one of the few teams to not let Mike Evans run wild. E.J. Gaines is a stud, but sometimes underwhelms in coverage. SOLID EDGE: OLE MISS

KICKING GAME: It doesn’t matter what Ole Miss’ kicking game is like. If their kickers have a pulse, they have an advantage. SOLID EDGE: OLE MISS.

INTANGIBLES: Mizzou is playing for a spot in Atlanta. It will be impossible for them to look past this game. They are going to be jacked up. But it’s at Ole Miss and the last home game of 2013. And it’s at night. This game will go a long ways towards deciding how each team will view its season at the end of the year. EDGE: OLE MISS

OVERALL (based on Unit comparisons): PRETTY EVEN

Conclusion

I’m a Tiger fan and it’s impossible for me to take those glasses off. I am confident that Mizzou can beat Ole Miss in Oxford, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. This is a battle-tested Tiger team that has largely played with poise. I predict that Mizzou is able to move the ball and score points and that the Tiger defense is able to slow down the Rebels enough to make the difference.

MIZZOU: 37
OLE MISS: 27