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re: Coach got the Rona

Posted on 8/24/21 at 12:53 pm to
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37708 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 12:53 pm to
quote:


It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that when like 60-70% of adults are vaccinated and numbers are as high as they have ever been it's not preventing getting the disease or transmission.


Considering the current believed R0 value of ~7-8 for Delta, 60-70% vaccination wouldn't stop spread even if vaccines were 100% effective and stopped transmission

simplistically if R0 * (1 - %vaccinated *Effectiveness Rate) has a value greater than 1 you can expect growint transmission spread. So 7 (1 - 70% * 100) is 2.1.

For reference I think the original COVID R0 w no Vaccine was around 2-3 based on the data available

This post was edited on 8/24/21 at 12:54 pm
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
61962 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 2:28 pm to
quote:

simplistically if R0 * (1 - %vaccinated *Effectiveness Rate) has a value greater than 1 you can expect growint transmission spread. So 7 (1 - 70% * 100) is 2.1.



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