re: Spring Practice Thread

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Davis never does anything at Auburn and eventually transfers out. Not because I think he's not good or anything, but due to timing and the reality behind a complete coaching change. Let's lay a few things out:

1) Harsin and Bobo didn't recruit this kid, he was inherited from the old staff...which ran a completely different offensive system. This is a big point that is overlooked. They have no allegiance to this kid. Harsin is a QB by trade as was Bobo - they have their own strong opinions in terms of what they want at this position and the offense they envision. If you notice, none of the QB's that they have prioritized to date in recruiting are really "dual-threat" guys and basically all of them fit the more traditional size aspect of the position. They will not prioritize "scrambling" at QB, at which point now you're talking about a 5'10 QB trying to fit in a more traditional offense. Yeah you have Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, and Davis has had success as a passer (...in HS), but those are rare talents (hence why they're HOF type players). In this regard, Davis is going to be playing from behind and will REALLY need to impress to earn his shot.

2) To further elaborate on what I mean by "timing": Nix is going to have to really suck a lot in order to lose his job to a true-Freshman 5'10 QB. Period. So what does that have to do with Davis' future? Well, if Nix starts this year as expected and shows any improvement, then he'd obviously be even less likely to lose his job as a Senior. He'd have to play out of his mind to leave for the NFL after his Junior season, and I just don't foresee that much improvement that quickly (if at all). Now, if Nix ends up being the guy for another 2 years, we run into the reality where Harsin's/Bobo's QB recruits will OVERLAP with Davis' "window". I see people talking as if Davis is a shoe-in to either replace Nix right away or at minimum guaranteed to be the "next guy up" after Nix leaves. Circle back to point #1 above: there is a very real possibility that he gets "jumped" entirely by one of the Harsin/Bobo guys if Nix actually ends up holding the job down for another 2 years: like the Holden Geriner kid who has more natural arm talent than Davis does. Under this scenario, Geriner and whoever else we end up taking this year (it looks like they envision a two-QB class) will likely be coming off redshirt seasons and now its open game for the starting QB position. No matter what anyone tells you, there is no reality where Davis is "guaranteed" to walk into the starting QB position. And the longer Nix is here and starting, the more competition Davis will have to go up against as he will be competing with guys that Harsin/Bobo actually recruited themselves. This is a very very easy scenario for a guy like him to get "lost" in the shuffle, which isn't being talked about enough.

Now, having said all of that it is entirely possible that Davis is for real and is the truth, in which case yes he absolutely can and WOULD end up being the "guy" at QB whenever that opportunity may present itself, but the people who are taking that stance without him having shown really anything on the field are jumping the gun big time. The people who seem to be touting this opinion cite his HS stats and "success" as if this is some guarantee of his abilities. The reality is that he played for one of the most dominant HS teams in the country. Yes, he is part of that team and is a big part of that success, but very very few QB recruits play on the same HS team as a ~Top 150 WR (the kid that signed with A&M was rated even higher than Davis) and multiple other D1 talents. Their team is stacked so of course you would expect the QB of that team to win games and put up numbers. That isn't a knock on Davis, but it's also not a "proof" to claim: "He won 'X' games in HS and look at his stats! That means he's for real". This is the same reason why when NFL teams evaluate QB's, they don't just look at who won the most games or put up the best numbers. Both of those "metrics" are impacted by other factors.