re: Iron Bowl Prediction Thread.

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According to FPI, Auburn is 31 percent likely to beat Alabama, meaning the Tigers have less than a 1-in-3 chance to pull off the upset. This may sound bleak, but Auburn has actually overcome similar odds to win in two of the past four Iron Bowls.

If Auburn were to upset Alabama again, the Tigers’ three wins with less than a 1-in-3 chance of winning against the same opponent would be the most such upsets of one team over another in the last five years, according to FPI. There are many cases of one team with two wins with less than a 1-in-3 chance over the same opponent since 2010, but none with three such upset wins.

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Auburn vs Alabama, Last 5 Seasons
Chance* Result
2014 31% ?
2013 30% W, 34-28
2012 3% L, 49-0
2011 8% L, 42-14
2010 29% W, 28-27
*According to FPI, before game

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