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Auburn chance's of making it to the National Championship Game.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:02 pm
Ive read mostly how important it is for Alabamas NC hopes. Not many people are talking about that Auburn still has a decent chance. Ranked at #4 they will be #3 if they beat Bama. The probability of OSU losing to Michigan may be low but the probability of them losing to Mich State are only slightly below coin flip, fairly even.
Then you have the low possibility of Duke or whomever else outright beating FSU. That probability is very low and not much of the final percentage but could happen if Winston has a really bad game.
And finally you have the scenario where Winston gets exposed as a rapist in time for the voters to bump an Auburn team that beat both Bama and Mizzou/USCe to finish the season.
So while they don't control their own destiny, there are still some scenarios that could work in their favor and they only need one of them to work. Assuming they beat Bama, I would then put the probability of them making the NCG going forward after that win at 35-40%. Not bad at all for not controlling your own destiny.
Then you have the low possibility of Duke or whomever else outright beating FSU. That probability is very low and not much of the final percentage but could happen if Winston has a really bad game.
And finally you have the scenario where Winston gets exposed as a rapist in time for the voters to bump an Auburn team that beat both Bama and Mizzou/USCe to finish the season.
So while they don't control their own destiny, there are still some scenarios that could work in their favor and they only need one of them to work. Assuming they beat Bama, I would then put the probability of them making the NCG going forward after that win at 35-40%. Not bad at all for not controlling your own destiny.
This post was edited on 11/28/13 at 3:18 pm
16
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:10 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
Fail. Clemson doesn't play FSU again. They're in the same division.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:12 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
Assuming AU beats UA, there's a strong chance tOSU loses to MSU.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:20 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
A big fat 0%, no way they beat Bama
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:23 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
Already have my spot reserved for the Auburn NC trophy tour at Walmart.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:24 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
I say this with all due respect to Auburn and what they have accomplished this season, but I just don't see them beating Alabama, even at home. Yes, I think they can score some points on the Tide. No, I don't think they can control the tempo. I think Bama will control Tempo and the trenches and win by 10-14 points. JMHO.
With that said, I expect Bama to win the SEC Title vs. either USC or Mizzou. I think Mizzou is the intriguing match-up, but they may not get the shot...I just don't see Johnny Football blowing it two weeks in a row. Guess we'll see soon.
As for Bama's opponent in the Natty game, it's FSU. And after all the smoke clears, Bama will beat em and beat em by 14-21 points. Quite frankly, I think there are 2-4 SEC teams built to beat FSU right now. Florida ain't one of em.
It pains me to say all of this. I am no Bama fan, but I am a realist. Until they actually lose a game, they are the best, period. There is nobody out there top to bottom better. Unfortunately, that's a fact.
With that said, I expect Bama to win the SEC Title vs. either USC or Mizzou. I think Mizzou is the intriguing match-up, but they may not get the shot...I just don't see Johnny Football blowing it two weeks in a row. Guess we'll see soon.
As for Bama's opponent in the Natty game, it's FSU. And after all the smoke clears, Bama will beat em and beat em by 14-21 points. Quite frankly, I think there are 2-4 SEC teams built to beat FSU right now. Florida ain't one of em.
It pains me to say all of this. I am no Bama fan, but I am a realist. Until they actually lose a game, they are the best, period. There is nobody out there top to bottom better. Unfortunately, that's a fact.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:27 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
7.3558%
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:32 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
quote:
Auburn chance's of making it to the National Championship Game.
...and he just left town.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:35 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
This thread will make a lot of people upset
But there is more of a chance MSU beats OSU than AU beating UA
So if somehow Auburn wins THE iron Bowl, I feel good about our chances at making the NC
But there is more of a chance MSU beats OSU than AU beating UA
So if somehow Auburn wins THE iron Bowl, I feel good about our chances at making the NC
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:36 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
The chance of AU jumping OSU with back to back top 5 wins is higher than jumping FSU due to Winston, IMO.
I don't think either is at all likely, but it is getting a lot of discussion by media types over the last week or two.
I don't think either is at all likely, but it is getting a lot of discussion by media types over the last week or two.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:40 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
If AU wins the next two games we are in and jump OSU. DWI
Winning the next two games would vault us in the computers.
Winning the next two games would vault us in the computers.
This post was edited on 11/28/13 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:48 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
If Alabama plays like they did against Mississippi State they will lose and it won't be close.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 4:11 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
IF Auburn beats two top 5 teams......
Ya, considering they've barely beaten top 40 teams this year, I'm going to go with 5%.
Ya, considering they've barely beaten top 40 teams this year, I'm going to go with 5%.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 5:48 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
chances are slim that auburn beats bama in the first place. however, if the unthinkable happens & either FSU or OSU slip up on saturday (whose games are played at noon, BTW), when the final score gets announced at JHS, that might give the players & fans an extra boost of motivation, if that's even possible....
Posted on 11/28/13 at 6:39 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
When Auburn beats the unbeatable, best football team to ever play yadda yadda etc..... UA they only move to #3? If that's the case voters didn't think too highly of Bama in the first place.
When you beat the Man....You are the man!
When you beat the Man....You are the man!
Posted on 11/28/13 at 7:52 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
I can't wait to see how they win
their State and Division championships.
If that happens...
It will be the best football ever played.
Alabama will play their best game.
You can take that to the bank.
their State and Division championships.
If that happens...
It will be the best football ever played.
Alabama will play their best game.
You can take that to the bank.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:17 am to BlackPawnMartyr
quote:
Auburn chance's of making it to the National Championship Game.
100%
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