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Potential scenarios for SEC next year
Posted on 1/3/24 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 1/3/24 at 1:57 pm
Here are the top 7 teams based on final conference record this year, going into next year:
Alabama - 8-0
Georgia - 8-0
Texas - 8-1
Oklahoma - 7-2
LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss - 6-2
Here's how they break down vs each other:
Alabama plays Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma (no Texas, no Ole Miss)
Georgia plays Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss (no Oklahoma, no Missouri, no Ole Miss)
Texas plays Georgia, Oklahoma (no Ole Miss, no Missouri, no Alabama, no LSU)
Oklahoma plays Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, LSU (no Georgia)
LSU - Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss
Missouri - Oklahoma, Alabama
Ole Miss - Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU
So, a few observations:
1. I don't know which voodoo witch or eldritch horror Oklahoma offended, but probably not a bad idea to make a few visits to a confessional or hire an exorcist.
2. There are a few scenarios that allow for a 3-way tie of undefeated teams. The most likely one is probably Alabama / Texas / Ole Miss, but Missouri and Texas each only play 2 of the teams that finished with 2 losses or fewer (and not each other). Any of the 4 teams that neither play could also end up undefeated (LSU or Ole Miss). While a 4-way tie is impossible, there's a couple of scenarios for 3-way ties among these teams. Of course, there's even more scenarios for 1-loss ties with a "A lost to B who lost to C who lost to A".
While these scenarios usually self-correct by the end of the season, it'll be interesting to see if we end up with a large number of ties. IIRC, the last 3-way tie in the SEC was 1989 (Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee).
Alabama - 8-0
Georgia - 8-0
Texas - 8-1
Oklahoma - 7-2
LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss - 6-2
Here's how they break down vs each other:
Alabama plays Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma (no Texas, no Ole Miss)
Georgia plays Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss (no Oklahoma, no Missouri, no Ole Miss)
Texas plays Georgia, Oklahoma (no Ole Miss, no Missouri, no Alabama, no LSU)
Oklahoma plays Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, LSU (no Georgia)
LSU - Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss
Missouri - Oklahoma, Alabama
Ole Miss - Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU
So, a few observations:
1. I don't know which voodoo witch or eldritch horror Oklahoma offended, but probably not a bad idea to make a few visits to a confessional or hire an exorcist.
2. There are a few scenarios that allow for a 3-way tie of undefeated teams. The most likely one is probably Alabama / Texas / Ole Miss, but Missouri and Texas each only play 2 of the teams that finished with 2 losses or fewer (and not each other). Any of the 4 teams that neither play could also end up undefeated (LSU or Ole Miss). While a 4-way tie is impossible, there's a couple of scenarios for 3-way ties among these teams. Of course, there's even more scenarios for 1-loss ties with a "A lost to B who lost to C who lost to A".
While these scenarios usually self-correct by the end of the season, it'll be interesting to see if we end up with a large number of ties. IIRC, the last 3-way tie in the SEC was 1989 (Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee).
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:00 pm to skrayper
new guys have to play 9 games?
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:02 pm to skrayper
quote:
Oklahoma plays Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, LSU (no Georgia)
1. I don't know which voodoo witch or eldritch horror Oklahoma offended, but probably not a bad idea to make a few visits to a confessional or hire an exorcist.
out of the 5 tough opponents only 1 at home, 1 neutral and 3 road,
plus the mystery 9th opponent...
This post was edited on 1/3/24 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:04 pm to skrayper
quote:
Here are the top 7 teams based on final conference record this year, going into next year:
Here are the top 7 teams based on oddsmakers at Betonline, going into next year:
Georgia
Alabama
Texas
LSU
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Texas AM
Probably best to use those.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:07 pm to skrayper
In a 3 way tie, it would go to whoever beat the highest ranked (in the standings not CFP) opponent.
Say BAMA Texas Ole Miss, then if LSU finishes next in the standings, then Texas is out and Ole Miss and BAMA play for title and so on and so forth.
Say BAMA Texas Ole Miss, then if LSU finishes next in the standings, then Texas is out and Ole Miss and BAMA play for title and so on and so forth.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:07 pm to skrayper
OU is better than Tennessee now? Have y’all been paying any attention to bowl/transfer season?
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:07 pm to Smokeyone
quote:
Delusional at best
Never said it was likely, but it's not impossible.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:12 pm to Dallaswho
quote:
OU is better than Tennessee now? Have y’all been paying any attention to bowl/transfer season?
I never claimed they were better than Tennessee; I just stuck with final records of this past year. Taking OU out of the equation and adding Tennessee:
quote:
Tennessee
Aug. 31: Chattanooga
Sept. 7: NC State
Sept. 14: Kent State
Sept. 21: at Oklahoma
Oct. 5: at Arkansas
Oct. 12: Florida
Oct. 19: Alabama
Nov. 2: Kentucky
Nov. 9: Mississippi State
Nov. 16: at Georgia
Nov. 23: UTEP
Nov. 30: at Vanderbilt
They also only play two of the teams (and both are played by either Missouri or Texas), so a 3-way tie involving those three isn't absurd.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:16 pm to skrayper
It’s funny how you think a team that barely beat a very bad Auburn team and USF team, then racked up under 300 yards of total offense in the semifinal with barely 100 yards passing is going undefeated next year
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:22 pm to Stew2581
quote:
It’s funny how you think a team that barely beat a very bad Auburn team and USF team, then racked up under 300 yards of total offense in the semifinal with barely 100 yards passing is going undefeated next year
It's funnier to see how terrible your reading comprehension is.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:22 pm to Stew2581
Oklahoma has perhaps the toughest of all the SEC schedules. I do not see them in the title game and maybe not even in the playoffs.
Here is my SEC Group of Five for the playoffs:
Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Missouri.
(Bubble: LSU, Tennessee)
Here is my SEC Group of Five for the playoffs:
Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Missouri.
(Bubble: LSU, Tennessee)
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:29 pm to ht1950
quote:
I do not see them in the title game and maybe not even in the playoffs.
True, they could be the 15th best team in the country and still go 7-5.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:38 pm to skrayper
I don’t see ole miss going undefeated next year. I think UGA gets us at home for sure and we have at best coin flip game at LSU. Then you have Oklahoma to deal with.
Basically win all the games you “should” win. Get hyped up for LSU and Oklahoma and then you get a free shot against UGA. Win 2/3 of those games preferably with one being UGA and you’re in. 2 losses and you’re at the mercy of everyone else.
Basically win all the games you “should” win. Get hyped up for LSU and Oklahoma and then you get a free shot against UGA. Win 2/3 of those games preferably with one being UGA and you’re in. 2 losses and you’re at the mercy of everyone else.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:42 pm to olemissfan26
Most years 3 from sec will make playoffs
If you don’t make sec title game you get a extra break
If you win title game you get a bye
Some years you could have 4 sec teams in playoffs
Bama plays uga
Could meet in sec title game
Could meet in playoffs
If you don’t make sec title game you get a extra break
If you win title game you get a bye
Some years you could have 4 sec teams in playoffs
Bama plays uga
Could meet in sec title game
Could meet in playoffs
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:51 pm to skrayper
Rebs don't go undefeated next season. We'll probably drop 2 out of UGA, OU, and LSU.
Good news is we still likely get into the playoffs with 2 losses.
Good news is we still likely get into the playoffs with 2 losses.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:53 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
Most years 3 from sec will make playoffs
If you don’t make sec title game you get a extra break
If you win title game you get a bye
Some years you could have 4 sec teams in playoffs
Bama plays uga
Could meet in sec title game
Could meet in playoffs
You could argue it's more beneficial to not play in the SECCG. Take away the risk of key injuries. Downside is that's another week of not playing but that probably doesn't matter considering there's already almost a month of no football.
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