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re: Old School Model - Rose Bowl Edition : #1 Michigan (13-0) vs #4 Alabama (12-1)
Posted on 12/7/23 at 7:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 12/7/23 at 7:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It is - mainly Jayden Daniels absurd performance.
Texas 2.8YPA rushing (no mobile QB)
Ole Miss 1.9YPA (mobile)
A&M 1.9YPA (no mobile)
Ark 2.9 YPA (mobile)
UT 3.5YPA (mobile)
LSU 8.6YPA (mobile)
AU 5.8YPA (mobile)
UGA 2.5YPA (no mobile)
Only LSU and AU ran on us at an effective rate and both leaned on their QB to do so.
UM has a tall task to run consistently the way they have all season if they don’t get McCarthy freezing LBs with the quick read and forcing the safeties back with vertical hits.
Michigan is avg 4.3YPC so it’s not like they have an LSU/UT level run attack to begin with.
In big games they went
4.0YPA (OSU)
1.9YPA (IA)
4.9YPA (PSU)
In many of those games McCarthy wasn’t even attempting 20 passes, but I acknowledge he’s hitting those attempts at a very efficient rate.
Looking at their offense I’m very impressed with their efficiency (PPD 5th, FEI 7th and YPP 22nd), I’m just not exactly sure how they would respond if they get behind the sticks because they aren’t explosive at all.
This post was edited on 12/7/23 at 7:30 pm
1
Posted on 12/7/23 at 8:35 pm to tide06
bama gonnna stop that run and make their qb beat them, which he wont.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 9:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
If we used our average pt per yard allowed (defense) and scored (offense) the final score would be:
Alabama - 30
Michigan - 20
Posted on 12/8/23 at 7:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
Does not bode well for Michigan that they lose on the model despite having been able to put up stats against the Big Ten.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 8:28 am to CrimsonCrusade
I didn’t watch much Big 10 football this season (got busy around the house watching some paint dry) so maybe I’m wrong but I don’t remember many Big 10 teams playing quality OOC teams. I remember tOSU beating ND in South Bend which was decent. What other games did Big 10 have OOC where we could get a sense of that conference’s strength relative to other conferences? Feels like they just played each other all year so nobody knows how good they are/how good Michigan is.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 9:45 am to SummerOfGeorge
Michigan is 116th in pass plays of 40 or more yards.
Bama is 4th.
JJ McCarthy had a QB rating of 190 in September and 213 in October.
Since then (5 games, 3 of which were ranked) his QB rating is 128.9 and every stat you want in a QB has dropped off a cliff. He's got zero rushing TDs and -23 rush yards since November started.
Milroe, on the other hand, went from a QB rating of 177 in Sept and 172 in October to a QB rating of 181 since then, with a 10/1 TD/INT ratio and 7 rushing TDs and 326 yards to go with it.
In other words, in the last 5 games Jalen Milroe has 17 TDs and 1 turnover and JJ McCarthy has 1 TD.
Some people have the balls to say Michigan has a QB advantage!
Bama is 4th.
JJ McCarthy had a QB rating of 190 in September and 213 in October.
Since then (5 games, 3 of which were ranked) his QB rating is 128.9 and every stat you want in a QB has dropped off a cliff. He's got zero rushing TDs and -23 rush yards since November started.
Milroe, on the other hand, went from a QB rating of 177 in Sept and 172 in October to a QB rating of 181 since then, with a 10/1 TD/INT ratio and 7 rushing TDs and 326 yards to go with it.
In other words, in the last 5 games Jalen Milroe has 17 TDs and 1 turnover and JJ McCarthy has 1 TD.
Some people have the balls to say Michigan has a QB advantage!
This post was edited on 12/8/23 at 9:51 am
Posted on 12/22/23 at 9:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I have a question about your model.
Does it scale based on rank of offense or defense.
Eg, if a team holds the #1 rated offense to 90% of its normal production, and holds the #87 offense to 90%, does it give more credit to the performance against the #1 offense, or would it rate them equally?
Does it scale based on rank of offense or defense.
Eg, if a team holds the #1 rated offense to 90% of its normal production, and holds the #87 offense to 90%, does it give more credit to the performance against the #1 offense, or would it rate them equally?
Posted on 12/22/23 at 9:59 pm to Remiden
Watching the Penn State vs Ohio State game and neither of these teams are great on offense. It was 10-6 OSU in the fourth quarter. Officials helped them get the lead with some questionable calls. Michigan best wins were against these two teams.
This post was edited on 12/22/23 at 10:00 pm
Posted on 12/22/23 at 10:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I dont usually bet with the boys in the desert, but im considering making a substantial wager on this one. Bama and points ? Their passing game is not scary, and our DBs are elite. I dont think Bama will need split safeties. They cant defend milroe IF Rees uses him right.
I cant see UM winning this game without getting at least two turnovers.
I cant see UM winning this game without getting at least two turnovers.
Posted on 12/23/23 at 9:47 am to East Coast Band
+ any league :)
I think they will have decent success running against our defense. we have routinely given 3-5 yds avg to lesser known teams. question is can we get that critical stop.
I think they will have decent success running against our defense. we have routinely given 3-5 yds avg to lesser known teams. question is can we get that critical stop.
Posted on 12/23/23 at 3:19 pm to JIB
I admit I'm a Homer, but I really can't see how Michigan is that impressive. It almost scares me how confident I am about this game. That and the fact that most of the betting public is betting on alabama but yet the line still isn't budging. Kinda getting 2018 Clemson vibes from this game
Posted on 12/23/23 at 3:28 pm to Brostache48
Yes, and Auburn was not that impressive. Hope you are right.
Posted on 12/23/23 at 3:39 pm to Brostache48
quote:
Kinda getting 2018 Clemson vibes from this game
That Clemson team had 3 first round picks on the DL, a first round pick at LB, a first round pick at CB and a second round pick at the other CB
The #1 overall pick at QB, a first round pick at RB, a 2nd round pick at WR, and Hunter Renfrow
Michigan has ... none of that, not even close
Posted on 12/23/23 at 3:41 pm to Bama72
quote:
Yes, and Auburn was not that impressive.
The 2009 undefeated team also struggled to beat a mid-Auburn team on the road
Posted on 12/23/23 at 4:00 pm to Section 80
Guess I should have specified that I'm not comparing it to that game but the reason it reminds me of that Clemson game was because I was confident we would smoke Clemson. They played a weak schedule and I felt like we had the better team. Much like I feel now
Posted on 12/23/23 at 4:28 pm to Brostache48
Alabama was coming off a track meet game against Oklahoma and Kyler Murray a week prior. Then had to fly all the way out to the west coast. Not the same situation in any way. Any logical person would see that the two situations aren’t similar at all.
Posted on 12/23/23 at 4:34 pm to bamatide07
Reread my previous post
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