re: Stewart Mandel predicts CFP scenarios

That "lesser team" sure whooped the shite out of y'all then if they won by 10 and mercy kneeled in your stadium after burning the last 8 min of game clock

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Otherwise, FSU would be a lock with a win and they are not.

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Yes they are.

The playoff selection over the years has shown us their selection criteria.

1 - Undefeated P5 teams
2 - 1-loss P5 conference champs.
3 - 1-loss P5 non-champs and 0-loss G5's.

Those are the tiers. Other things only come into play if there is a decision between teams within a tier for the last spot.

Note: This is just for the playoff selection for the 4 teams. They rank the teams afterwards to get the matchups they want (avoiding rematches in the first round mostly).

FSU is absolutely in with a win. There are potentially at most 4 undefeated P5 teams.

And if we have a tie for the 4th spot in tier 2 (Texas and Bama with 1 loss), then Texas gets it with the head to head.

They won't even talk about it that much. They aren't going to invite criticism by picking a team who lost head to head.

Everyone thinks it's complicated, but it really isn't.

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That’s going to be interesting - because FSU has already dropped in the playoff rankings

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Not behind a 1-loss team, just other undefeated teams.

The committee showed the "undefeated and you're in" rule the very first year... ironically with FSU as the example that season.

FSU was undefeated but everyone thought they weren't one of the 4 best teams. They still got in the playoff.

What I find funny is take people sing Texas for not having any other big wins but then discount that Texas still was winning games without their starting QB.

Some of those ugly wins, wouldn’t be so ugly with Ewers bs Murphy (and in truth I don’t even really think Ewers is 100% even now).

The biggest part here is for Texas just win and see what happens. Anything else at this point is just going to be the sam w people arguing the same arguments . I can you this though, if they do get in I would not want to be whoever plays them because we have all seen what happens if you give Sark a moth of bowl practices to prep for one specific D.

Understood. You may be right. I tend to believe “precedent” doesn’t matter as much as you do.

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1 - Undefeated P5 teams
2 - 1-loss P5 conference champs.
3 - 1-loss P5 non-champs and 0-loss G5's.

Those are the tiers. Other things only come into play if there is a decision between teams within a tier for the last spot.

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And if we have a tie for the 4th spot in tier 2 (Texas and Bama with 1 loss), then Texas gets it with the head to head.

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What Mandel has differently than you is simply one detail:

In the group of 12-1 P5 conference champions he thinks 3-1 Vs Top15 and 4-1 vs Top 25 is a "tier" above 1-1 Vs Top15 and 1-1 vs Top 25.

He may well be wrong but it's not just a crazy unrealistic opinion that no other committee members will argue either.

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What Mandel has differently than you is simply one detail:

In the group of 12-1 P5 conference champions he thinks 3-1 Vs Top15 and 4-1 vs Top 25 is a "tier" above 1-1 Vs Top15 and 1-1 vs Top 25.

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This isn't the first time that kind of argument was made though.

We had a decision in category 3 in 2021. We had undefeated G5 Cincinnati and 1-loss P5 Notre Dame with a tougher schedule.

But Cincy beat ND head to head.

Cincy got in.

This is the same scenario, just one tier up. They aren't going to take a harder to defend position. THey'll do what they did before and go with the easy answer... head to head winner.

Take away Alabama and your strength of schedule is in the 30’s, take you away from Alabama schedule and they are still in the top 6

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We had a decision in category 3 in 2021. We had undefeated G5 Cincinnati and 1-loss P5 Notre Dame with a tougher schedule.

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Undefeated G5 with a Top 10 win Vs 11-1 P5 Non Conference champion isn't really an apples to apples precedent.

G5 and P5 teams are never on the same "tier" as to how they're judged.

Like I said in my first post, I'd personally put Texas.

However, I also would be sure that a lot of committee members will think exactly like Mandel is:

A 12-1 P5 Conference Champion that went 3-1 Vs Top15 and 4-1 vs Top 25 (not to mention just beat the overall #1 team)
should just be in without much other discussion when compared to 12-1 P5 Conference Champions with only 1 Top 25 win.

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What’s a worse loss? Losing to Texas or losing to OU?

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Bama got arse raped by double digits in their own house by Texas.

Texas lost by 4 points on a neutral field in a rivalry game against Oklahoma.

I know in the Bammer’s delusion addled little minds, none of that matters. But back here in the real world, it does, especially considering the team they want to jump is Texas.