re: Auburn opens as a 10 point favorite

Opened at nine. Frick your tweet.

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I agree... was thinking it would open around 7.5.

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seems about right. Vegas thinks Auburn is a TD better on a neutral field.

Not how it works. The oddsmakers think that the general public thinks they are 7 points better on a neutral field. It's nothing more than trying to even out a public consensus. The sharps and wiseguys that do this for a living get first crack at the lines right when they come out before the public gets to see them. The limits are set low to 500-1k per bet at this time but it enables the books to really sharpen the lines up. The smart money then watches throughout the week how it moves and when they really start seeing value they jump in for a big bet for at least 10k up to 100k (10 dimes to 100 dimes).

It's not what the books think, but what they think that the public thinks. If a game ever looks too good to be true to you, take the other side. You will profit way more than you lose I promise you. Technology has given them huge psychological advances. Not every favorite should be favored. It's up to you to find the value. No different than investing.

What I'm referring to is NOT local bookie, local man shite but rather how they originate. Locals have to adjust using nobody's logic but their OWN.

I'm starting to think the exact same thing since I see so many here saying this line is too high.


I heard the exact same thing right before 56-3

I would think must of the money was on the under last week. How did that work out for the folks that thought that was easy money?

I thought the line would be 7, so this is not that shocking.

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Vegas loves our defense

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It is so great loving AU defense. Quite a few years in the desert, nice to be out of it.

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MSU will not be able to run the ball

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This.

Was looking at stats from LSU-MSU 2015 when Steele was their DC - Mullen abandoned the run in the second half because it wasn't working, but had Dak's passing to get them back in the game late. Last year Fitz's running was the only thing they had through the first 3 quarters, and it was far from enough to keep them in the game.

Feeling better about this one after Saturday. Thought they'd give UGa more of a game. They are much better on defense than they were last year, but I think we have enough on offense to give them problems.