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Posted on 2/6/14 at 12:51 am to Razorback Reverend
Not that anyone will care but...
I decided to do some napkin math. If you took every player signed to D1 and randomzied their star rating using the same distribution as this year (used 247 to check numbers) and then compared it to the distribution of players actually drafted you get the following:
5* = players rated by a recruiting service as 5* are 15% more likely than random distribution to be drafted
4* = 21% more likely
3* and 2* = 3% less likely
I combined 3* and 2* because modern rankings include many more 3* than they used to. (a few years ago there were ~750 3* players, this year there were over 1600)
Call me a sunshine pumper or even friends of the entire administration but I'm willing to believe that our staff can do better than +15% over random.
ETA: draft numbers were taken from 2007 to 2011 draft as those were the ones I found already compiled
I decided to do some napkin math. If you took every player signed to D1 and randomzied their star rating using the same distribution as this year (used 247 to check numbers) and then compared it to the distribution of players actually drafted you get the following:
5* = players rated by a recruiting service as 5* are 15% more likely than random distribution to be drafted
4* = 21% more likely
3* and 2* = 3% less likely
I combined 3* and 2* because modern rankings include many more 3* than they used to. (a few years ago there were ~750 3* players, this year there were over 1600)
Call me a sunshine pumper or even friends of the entire administration but I'm willing to believe that our staff can do better than +15% over random.
ETA: draft numbers were taken from 2007 to 2011 draft as those were the ones I found already compiled
This post was edited on 2/6/14 at 12:53 am
Posted on 2/6/14 at 5:56 am to Russvegas Dan
Yeah, I really don't think a program needs 5*s to perform well. Some 4*s and solid 3*s, plus a few under the radar guys, is all it takes.
And let's be real, there's a lot of luck involved. See 2013 Auburn.
And let's be real, there's a lot of luck involved. See 2013 Auburn.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 7:00 am to Hog on the Hill
We're way overdue for some luck. That's for damn sure!
Posted on 2/6/14 at 7:43 am to Hog on the Hill
As far as these diamonds in the rough types....this is the first class I can remember that at least all guys were rated 3* and above....not a single non rated guy
Goes back to my point that this isn't a great class....but a good solid class...a class to build on....and mixed with last years class...it's a good two year start for Bert.
Goes back to my point that this isn't a great class....but a good solid class...a class to build on....and mixed with last years class...it's a good two year start for Bert.
This post was edited on 2/6/14 at 7:44 am
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:15 am to 870Hog
quote:
Arkansas has never recruited at the top. We are successful when we build to our programs needs and develop talent. 2 out of 3 years we will be 7-9 win teams, 1-3 we will have a just the right mix of experience and talent contend to win the west/SEC.
Just what I see in our future.
so, basically, exactly what BB did at wisconsin.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:18 am to WaveHog
I'd be happy with what he did at Wisconsin....so count me IN
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:28 am to Hawgeye
exactly.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:04 am to Gladius Veritas
quote:
Florida and Louisiana recruits >>> Texas recruits
and here we go......
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:05 am to Gladius Veritas
quote:
pretty sure there were more 3 stars in the Super Bowl than 4 ans 5 stars
simple math will tell you that will most likely always be the case
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:08 am to ocelot4ark
quote:
Funny. Doesn't seem to be the case. Reading comprehension is in short supply these days to some of our posters.
so true
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:10 am to DaleDenton
quote:
Kingsley and Portis were on the court at the same time a lot,
no they weren't.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:12 am to Pigfeet
quote:
Florida and Louisiana recruits >>> Texas recruits
There might be some truth to this. Florida, Miami, Florida State and LSU have combined for 6 national championships in this century while Texas is the lone school in that state to have played for or won a national title.
I suppose you could count OU in that equation as well but then you would have to start including every team that recruits Florida and Louisiana which means you bring Bama in to the fold.
This post was edited on 2/6/14 at 9:13 am
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:20 am to TheCheshireHog
If there is someone on this board that is so smart, that they can say that the following states: GA, TX, CA, LA, FL are better than the other, then they have to be the best talent evaluator on the planet.
That statement is pretty much a "Lets punt" in a discussion.
That statement is pretty much a "Lets punt" in a discussion.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:21 am to Hawgeye
Really think technology is helping get more and more recruits evaluated. That should cut down on those unranked guys unless their coaches just don't care about getting their kids scholarships.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:25 am to ocelot4ark
quote:
Early PT.
EARLY PT!
We pitched it last year after 4-8. Why not this year after 3-9?
Who said we didn't pitch it. It was one of the main reasons we landed Ragnow -- we told him he'd be playing Center from day one.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:26 am to Pigfeet
I'd rather have defensive players and speed players from Florida over Texas.
Southern kids seem to be tougher in the trenches than Texas kids.
That's just my take.
Last nasty Dlinemen out of Texas?
Southern kids seem to be tougher in the trenches than Texas kids.
That's just my take.
Last nasty Dlinemen out of Texas?
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:26 am to WaveHog
Pretty much. I think he has the talent to be a successful coach but there is a difference between a successful coach and a great coach and in the SEC you have one of the best coaches in college football history(As much as I hate that short fricker) coaching and a ton of other successful/good coaches.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:32 am to Pigfeet
quote:
If there is someone on this board that is so smart, that they can say that the following states: GA, TX, CA, LA, FL are better than the other, then they have to be the best talent evaluator on the planet.
That statement is pretty much a "Lets punt" in a discussion.
You can look at the type of top tier talent each produces.
Tx is mainly QBs, WRs, and RBs.
Florida is RBs, WRs, TEs, Oline, Defensive players
LA is RBs, WRs, Defensive players.
CA is QBs, WRs, RBs, DBs.
GA is WRs, RBs, DBs, LBs.
It has to do with the style of play in each state, Tx is mainly 7 on 7 spread type, CA, FL, LA, and GA play more of a pro style.
If you look at what Arkansas produces consistently it would be RBs and Oline, with the popularity of the spread, you haven't seen an increase in WRs and QBs from the state like you would expect. Defensive prospects are mainly d line.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:47 am to DaleDenton
Let's let this thread die. It was a decent class. Filled the holes added quality linemen that will both play and add depth. Brought in some guys that will grow into the right size/speed needed in the SEC. We whiffed on the top end guys. In state was a pretty bad class. Frazier hurt, but not as bad as it could've because he had a bad year and he'd never live up to the hype here. He'll ride pine in Bama but may still get drafted based on size and potential alone.
Having basically all 3 stars is the bottom of where we need to be. 5 stars are destined for super stardom. 4 stars are Championship winning level. 3 stars keep you competitive but might not get you over the hump.
Having basically all 3 stars is the bottom of where we need to be. 5 stars are destined for super stardom. 4 stars are Championship winning level. 3 stars keep you competitive but might not get you over the hump.
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