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re: Alabama vs UGA Prediction Thread
Posted on 9/29/15 at 12:40 pm to 12
Posted on 9/29/15 at 12:40 pm to 12
UA wins a close one and it will be our coaching staff that wins it. Both teams have the talent but CMR is not the best big game coach and never makes adjustments(SECCG2012) and Pruitt(padawan) will try and prove to Saban(master) he is no longer a padawan. Pruitt will be over agressive trying to scheme and it will cost them. Expect Mullaney, Howard, and Ridley to have big days catching short passes outside the blitz Pruitt will bring recklessly throughout the game.
UA 27-20
UA 27-20
0
Posted on 9/29/15 at 2:14 pm to nb200016
quote:It's the way they have to play, or think they have to play, to get those points that's the problem. This isn't Lacy pounding defenses to a pulp, resulting in 37 points. For Alabama to manufacture that many points, horrific mistakes WILL be made. Ugly 3 and outs WILL happen. Any given week this team can be amazing, if mistakes aren't made. But, the odds of that happening are very, very low.
The offense that put up 500 yards and 37 points on Ole Miss's defense? Oh ok
Until they prove his wrong, be prepared for Alabama to be in crazy arse games full of ridiculous spans of crap. I love the defense, but they can't clean up all of the mistakes by the offense.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:21 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
So you're on record that our offense is just fine? No issues with QB, OL, or WR play?
If you think that, then I can understand that you have confidence. I don't think all is well with our offense and I don't trust them right now to move the ball with consistency as well as protect the ball...especially on the road against a good team in a hostile environment. I hope they prove me wrong.
It can improve but if you're asking do I think is it perfectly capable of putting up plenty of yards and points on this defense to win us the game...it's a profound yes, mistakes and all. Certainly not in dire straights like some fans want us to believe.
The offense has done "fine" considering it's being egregiously misused. Room for improvement sure, but constantly being asked to do things they're not suited for.
Statistically we are at our best in the pistol, and running playaction. Yet we constantly attempt things outside of that realm at an absurd rate. Call this game in a manner that trends to our strengths and not only is our offense "fine," but they could hand Georgia its arse.
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:32 pm to nb200016
I'm starting to feel better about this game. Looking at the stats, their defensive linemen don't make a lot of tackles and they really don't make a lot of TFL. Most of their negative plays come from their linebackers. This gives me some hope that we can handle them at the point of attack in the running game and create some room for Henry to operate, which is where he is a deadly weapon. Lambert has been efficient, and somehow Malcolm Mitchell is still in school. If we can contain him with Cyrus and not get beat by the backs in the passing game I really like the matchup with Georgia the more I think about it.
Denzel Devall is going to need to have a monster game and our cornerbacks and safeties are going to have to beat blocks and make tackles in space. When Chubb does get to the edge we have to tackle him. We need some short efficient throws early from Coker (think 1/9/12) to keep Georgia honest. Abandon the deep ball at least for the first half. I think the tide wins
24-13. Reuben gets a pick 6
Denzel Devall is going to need to have a monster game and our cornerbacks and safeties are going to have to beat blocks and make tackles in space. When Chubb does get to the edge we have to tackle him. We need some short efficient throws early from Coker (think 1/9/12) to keep Georgia honest. Abandon the deep ball at least for the first half. I think the tide wins
24-13. Reuben gets a pick 6
Posted on 9/29/15 at 5:09 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:I've been playing that game in my head all fricking day, with Coker at QB. Planned on starting a thread about it after class tonight. Not only was it a thing of beauty, it's a game plan I think Coker could execute. Roll him out. Get the ball to Howard moving up the field. They try to get him to get to the edge too often. And if they have Coker sitting still in the pocket waiting for long developing routes I'm gonna pass the frick out.
(think 1/9/12)
I'm at the same point mentally as I was last year after a few games. This isn't a well oiled machine. Can't just hand off every play and get out of the way and they can't wait for Coker to pick apart a defense with accurate throws. Nail down a gameplan that these guys can execute, give them specific tasks, and go frick some shite up.
I realize that was vague, and they probably do that every week
Posted on 9/29/15 at 5:22 pm to ReauxlTide222
I don't think we need to be wide open to win this game. If we can find some points early (TDs and FGs) and play this game with a lead, I think our offense could play with enough confidence to win. If we have to play from behind, then I don't have any confidence that we can pull it out. Really need the defense to force some turnovers that we can easily capitalize.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 6:14 pm to FairhopeTider
I don't think they went all wide open in that game. And they kickstarted the offense from close to the LOS and opened it up from that. the deep throws weren't bet dangerous either. Norwood would be one on one with TM7 and the throws weren't into heavily covered areas.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 11:37 am to chattabama
I predict we will receive the ball first, we will three-and-out, then punt the ball to UGA giving them great starting field position.
When will Saban realize this trend? When will he just give in and kick the ball when we win the toss?
Oh and Ardarius Stewart will drop many balls and Coker will throw INT(s) on deep balls because he waits too long to throw or stares receiver down.
Tell me what I win!
When will Saban realize this trend? When will he just give in and kick the ball when we win the toss?
Oh and Ardarius Stewart will drop many balls and Coker will throw INT(s) on deep balls because he waits too long to throw or stares receiver down.
Tell me what I win!
Posted on 9/30/15 at 11:55 am to YStar
Yeah, I'd like to see us defer too...which I know hinders my "get the lead first" strategy.
I'm tired of wasting the first possession of a game and I'm tired of seeing other teams come out and scoring to start the second half.
I'm tired of wasting the first possession of a game and I'm tired of seeing other teams come out and scoring to start the second half.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 12:07 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
Yeah, I'd like to see us defer too...which I know hinders my "get the lead first" strategy.
Deferring would actually help us get the lead first. Our defense would stifle the opposition and we'd get a shorter field winning the possession battle.
Instead, we continually request to receive the ball, punt quickly, lose the field position battle and give our opposition a short field to score, adding pressure to our defense.
I truly don't understand Saban's stubbornness on this. I can't count how many times we've punted to start, but the other team has scored to begin the second half.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 12:19 pm to YStar
I'm with you. In theory, you want to start every game like 2012 Notre Dame where you march it right their throats and set the tone.
I think the decision of whether to receive the kick or not comes down to you should want the strength of your team on the field first. Right now, its not our offense.
If we do accept the kick, for God's sake, just take a knee. The risk right now isn't worth the reward.
I think the decision of whether to receive the kick or not comes down to you should want the strength of your team on the field first. Right now, its not our offense.
If we do accept the kick, for God's sake, just take a knee. The risk right now isn't worth the reward.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 1:16 pm to FairhopeTider
I totally agree here. Defer the kcik and start the 2nd half with the ball
Posted on 9/30/15 at 4:21 pm to TideWarrior
Yeah I definitely want defense first. The defense is the heart and soul of this team. Let them feast early and put the pressure on Georgia's defense to stop us. Our offense is on the verge of being absurd. Let them click and watch Bama turn into the sleeping giant we expected in the preseason
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:09 pm to nb200016
Either way if we play defense first, well know how the rest of the game will probably go. If we shut them down, that confidence radiates.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:49 pm to Parabellem
I'm a fan of the F/+ because of its particular model, but those of you who frequent sbnation or rollBamaroll.com might be familiar with it as well.
The more I look at the analysis of the advanced stats (I urge people to check out the F/+ if you are into such things or are just a nerd like myself), the more confident I get.
Their offense is good, and thusly is ranked so. But those stats have been put up against poor to mediocre competition. In comparing their offensive ranking to our defensive one, it's a push overall (Bama 1st v UGA 10th). We have an edge in rushing SP, and adjusted line yards in the trenches but just about everything else is a push There's a slight edge to them in passing down SP with 12th ranking to our 28th (our passing defense is much better than the media would have people assume).
The other side of the ball is actually very surprising. We hold an edge against their defense in rushing SP, passing down SP and adjusted line yards. The other 4 categories are all a push, but even then Bama's O outranks Georgia's D in each category (just not by a large margin).
Overall, when comparing these we have an edge of 5-1 with pushes in 8 other categories. With rain imminent and their only edge in passing downs (think 3rd and long) plus the fact that we obtained this vs a much more difficult schedule, I think we could really tear them up and run away with this.
Here's to finding hope in advanced statistics!!
The more I look at the analysis of the advanced stats (I urge people to check out the F/+ if you are into such things or are just a nerd like myself), the more confident I get.
Their offense is good, and thusly is ranked so. But those stats have been put up against poor to mediocre competition. In comparing their offensive ranking to our defensive one, it's a push overall (Bama 1st v UGA 10th). We have an edge in rushing SP, and adjusted line yards in the trenches but just about everything else is a push There's a slight edge to them in passing down SP with 12th ranking to our 28th (our passing defense is much better than the media would have people assume).
The other side of the ball is actually very surprising. We hold an edge against their defense in rushing SP, passing down SP and adjusted line yards. The other 4 categories are all a push, but even then Bama's O outranks Georgia's D in each category (just not by a large margin).
Overall, when comparing these we have an edge of 5-1 with pushes in 8 other categories. With rain imminent and their only edge in passing downs (think 3rd and long) plus the fact that we obtained this vs a much more difficult schedule, I think we could really tear them up and run away with this.
Here's to finding hope in advanced statistics!!
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 10/3/15 at 6:00 pm to Tuskkman
quote:
31-10 Bama
Posted on 10/3/15 at 6:03 pm to Tuskkman
Bo!
Posted on 10/3/15 at 6:08 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
Bama 42 UGA 27
I gave UGA too much credit.
Posted on 10/3/15 at 6:17 pm to imjustafatkid
This egg on my face feels good. Thought we'd lose this one.
Great team effort today
Great team effort today
Posted on 10/3/15 at 7:10 pm to MrBiriwa
quote:
This egg on my face feels good. Thought we'd lose this one. Great team effort today
Same here. They surprised me today. Thought Cokers first road start would turn into a shite-show. Props to Jake and the boys. Props to Kiffin for running from under center as well.
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