re: Alabama Basketball Recruiting and Offseason Talk

They were 11-20. Ken Pom is fun to look at during the season, but those rankings and luck metrics don't mean anything after it. 31 games is a large enough sample size to determine how good/bad your team is. There's a reason a team loses 20 games. And sure, they had a hard schedule, but that is reflected in their RPI ranking. From 157th in the RPI to a 9-seed in the tournament is a huge jump. They'd have to jump over 100 spots to even sniff the tournament.

Bamba is a good player, but I wouldn't say he's that much better than Jarrett Allen at this point. Probably going to be even better defensively, but very likely worse offensively. Don't get me wrong I think he's a top 10 player in this freshmen class, but his length is what has everyone excited, not his game. Until we see him against collegiate competition, it's hard to say how good he really is as of right now.

For the record, I think the talent is there for a tournament bid. I'm just not a believer in the coach. I think Texas will regret not listening to Red McCombs (he pitched them the idea of hiring Johnson).

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That's not entirely true. RPI is a joke how it is currently calculated

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I agree that it's not the best, but strength of schedule has a major impact on a team's RPI. That's why the SEC has been encouraging better non-conference scheduling in recent years. It's also why Texas was in the 150s instead of the 250s.

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That said, they played better than their 11-20 record

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Maybe I'm just old-fashioned, but in my opinion, you are what your record says you are. A team should be judged on who they've beaten and who they've lost to.

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Think of it this way though, Id say that 2010 Bama > '10 Arkansas/LSU despite more regular season losses and worse SEC record (H2H loss)

2010 Bama was a much better team than their 10-3 record

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I do agree here, but football is a different animal. You're looking at 13 games compared to 30+ and football is a sport that is impacted a hell of a lot more by a single play. A pick 6 can ruin you while a steal and a transition bucket really isn't that big of a deal (unless it's late of course). Clemson would've and should've beaten Alabama the first time, but the unexpected onside kick recovery completely changed the outcome of that game.

Rothstein:

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The SEC will release its conference schedule for the 2017-18 season on Thursday afternoon, per a source.

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For a team with a standard SOS and didn't go 4-9 in games decided by 5pts or less?

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4-9 aligns with their 11-22 record. A team that wins a third of their games should theoretically win about a third of their close games. Take those games out of the equation and they're still 7-13.

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Texas is a team that likely would have won 18-20 games had they played in the SEC last year.

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I don't even think Texas fans would believe that. They had a losing record in their non-conference schedule. They would have had to have gone 12-6 (lol) in the SEC to get to 18 or 14-4 (LOL) to get to 20. You've made a fair argument, but you've completely lost me here...

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Similarly to how I don't think it is wild that Bama is a 9-11 type seed, I don't think it is wild that Texas is one.

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Alabama was an NIT team last year who's best 3 players consisted of 2 freshman and a sophomore, all of which return. They also added a class that's just as good as Texas has coming in and a former top 50 player who's now eligible to play. Texas can conceivably make the tournament, but, at least in my opinion, there is MUCH more reason to believe Alabama is a tournament team than Texas.

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there is MUCH more reason to believe Alabama is a tournament team than Texas.

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I should start off with repeating, I'm not a Texas believer. My argument is mostly saying why someone who is unbiased would think a 11-22 team can make this big jump

Other key things though
-BigXII is expected to get 8-10 teams in compared to 4-7 from SEC
-Texas SOS will be higher than Bama's
-On paper, Texas talent is top 10-20

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A team that wins a third of their games should theoretically win about a third of their close games.

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How many 5pt losses would your standard 11-22 team have playing a top 10 SOS though?

It is the same argument why I'd say Ole Miss at 5-7 last year would be a 9-10W team in the ACC/BigXII/Big10. They played a harder schedule, and played that schedule very tough compared to your typical 5W team

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They had a losing record in their non-conference schedule. They would have had to have gone 12-6 (lol) in the SEC to get to 18

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You're right that their OOC hurts to get >18 but 16-18W isn't unreasonable

To get to 18, going 10-8 or better w/ 1-2 SECT and/or Big XII challenge wins? I don't see them finishing much different than Bama last year w/ 10W + SECT win

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Alabama was an NIT team last year

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In the above scenario of Texas' OOC + ~17W they'd be a NIT team too

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They also added a class that's just as good as Texas has coming in and a former top 50 player who's now eligible to play

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Just as good? Maybe at the top as good/better but Texas has 4 ESPN top 100 players (**ESPN has best rankings for BBall, but 247composite has 5)

Texas also has an impact transfer eligible in Dylan Osetkowski who reportedly looks incredible on their Austrailia trip

Jared Butler talks about Bama and his recruitment

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“They have been there from the jump along with Texas. They just tell me that they have always seen my talent when no one else did. They have been real consistent with recruiting me all this summer and shows just how much they have prioritized me. They have been fam for a long time and I love those guys.”

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LINK

I think we've been on him a pretty long time. Not sure how long tho. Avery has been pretty good about finding a player and offering him before he's well known

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Looking forward to having our full schedule today.

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The road to one