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re: "Star ratings don't matter!" (Except they do...)
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:20 pm to RollTide1987
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:20 pm to RollTide1987
Eminem and Sting to headline 2024 Formula One Grand Prix concerts in Austin.
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Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:22 pm to TN Tygah
quote:
Notice how there are more 3 stars and way more 4 stars than 5 stars in the NFL draft. Again, you’re proving their point.
Who wants to tell him?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:25 pm to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Who wants to tell him?
That has to be a troll.
Please tell me that he's trying to troll.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:34 pm to RollTide1987
Now do the rest of rest of the rounds.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:45 pm to RollTide1987
This implies that if you recruit/buy/sign 4 and 5 stars all you have to do is suit em up and let ‘em play and they’re an NFL lock. Clearly if you start with higher quality raw material you’ll generally get a better product, but you still have to build/develop it.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:21 pm to TN Tygah
You do understand that there are only 32 5 stars every year while there are hundreds of 4 stars and thousands of 3 stars, correct?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:21 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
22 of 32 players picked in the first round were former blue-chippers. - A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was nine times more likely to go in the first round than a 4-star recruit. - A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was 85 times more likely to go in the first round than a 3-star recruit.
I believe 2023 Washington, 2022 TCU, and 2010 Oregon are the only teams to make it to a national championship game that aren’t averaging a top 10 recruiting class in a 4 year cycle in the 21st century.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:26 pm to RollTide1987
The're definitely not infalliable, OTOH, they're a pretty good gauge. The top recruiting classes are up there for a reason for the natty.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:34 pm to TN Tygah
quote:
Of course it makes a difference but is not the end all be all, as evidenced by more 3 stars and 4 stars being drafted than 5 stars and that’s the case pretty much every year.
I bet advanced stats are too much for you
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:40 pm to TN Tygah
quote:You've been here 5 months, you've racked up +1,700 posts primarily shitting on all things Alabama.
TN Tygah
And you just proved without a shadow of a doubt how clueless you really are with a post like this.
quote:
Of course it makes a difference but is not the end all be all, as evidenced by more 3 stars and 4 stars being drafted than 5 stars and that’s the case pretty much every year.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:01 pm to tide06
What percentage of Saban's OL recruits who were top 10 prospects overall drafted in the first round? 80-90 percent?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:09 pm to RollTide1987
Star rating are the margin of error. More 4 and 5 stars means more margin for error to be wrong in the evaluation.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:22 pm to TN Tygah
quote:
Notice how there are more 3 stars and way more 4 stars than 5 stars in the NFL draft. Again, you’re proving their point.
In the High School Class of 2020 there were:
5 Stars - 32 players
4 Stars - 268 players
3 Stars - 500 players
Do the math to figure out why that is.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:23 pm to Smokeyone
quote:
Star rating are the margin of error. More 4 and 5 stars means more margin for error to be wrong in the evaluation.
The problem with 5 stars is that there are so few of them that if you aren't one of four or five programs it isn't worth your time pursuing them when you can hit on four star guys who are just as good.
Another problem with 5 stars is the bust factor is pretty significant. For every Caleb Williams out there you get a Spencer Rattler/Brock Vandagriff (draftable but not a real difference maker).
For every JC Latham you get a Tommy Brockermeyer or even a complete bust like Bryce Foster.
And there are 5 stars like Sam Huard who is now at Cal Poly. Tunmise Adeleye who is at Texas state. Or a Terrence Lewis who is now languishing at a JUCO after being at two P5s.
To take spend the time, money and effort to try to bring in 5 stars is not worth it.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:58 pm to bamameister
quote:
At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.
I think this is the take away. You'll have a better chance if you're starting with 5 stars but they still have to be developed. Look at that all time great class at TAM for an example.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:01 pm to RollTide1987
Nice post. Data is undeniable. And supports why these kids are ruining college football with NIL deals and annual transfers. I wonder if in a few years the data will be skewed as fewer 5 stars focus on self development versus NIL money deals.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:33 pm to RollTide1987
How do they do historically in the league? Do most of them end up having good careers or wash out?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:35 pm to Gunga Din
quote:
Brock Vandagriff (draftable but not a real difference maker).
You don't even know what Brock Vandagriff is at this point.
He was behind a 2 time national champ and a #1 overall draft pick.
You sure are quick to make NFL decisions on players.
What was Joe Burrow's 2019 NFL draft stock from his 2018 season?
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:37 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
5-stars: 7
quote:
3-stars: 9
Looks like the diamonds outperformed the blue chips.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:47 pm to ManBearSharkReb
Nah, there's like 30 5-stars to 1000 3-stars.
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