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"Star ratings don't matter!" (Except they do...)
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:14 am
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:14 am
Of the 32 players picked in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night, this is how they all broke out coming out of high school (per 247 Sports):
5-stars: 7
4-stars: 15
3-stars: 9
2-stars: 0
Non-Ranked: 1
- 22 of 32 players picked in the first round were former blue-chippers.
- A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was nine times more likely to go in the first round than a 4-star recruit.
- A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was 85 times more likely to go in the first round than a 3-star recruit.
5-stars: 7
4-stars: 15
3-stars: 9
2-stars: 0
Non-Ranked: 1
- 22 of 32 players picked in the first round were former blue-chippers.
- A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was nine times more likely to go in the first round than a 4-star recruit.
- A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was 85 times more likely to go in the first round than a 3-star recruit.
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Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:17 am to RollTide1987
Yep. It’s so funny when people say recruiting rankings don’t matter.
Sure, there are some low ranked guys who turn out being really good and vice versa, but to deny that there is a correlation is insane
Sure, there are some low ranked guys who turn out being really good and vice versa, but to deny that there is a correlation is insane
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:18 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Non-Ranked: 1
Curious who this was. I'm guessing the DB from Toledo.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:28 am to RollTide1987
That is what Auburn fans have said for years.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:31 am to RollTide1987
Good data. Imo offensive linemen are the easiest to predict to the pros. Somebody like Latham and Amarius Mims have been first round picks since the frigging 11th grade. They're just too big and too purtty. It's been that way at Alabama for a while now and been that way at Georgia for the last 4 or 5 years.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:30 am to RollTide1987
NFL loves traits. 6 of next years top 10 prospects are 5*’s. Other 4 were highly recruited 4*’s. Interesting enough, Prime has top two prospects in Hunter (no surprise) & Shedeur (early betting favorite on DraftKings to go #1). That’s going to help his recruiting for sure.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:31 am to RollTide1987
Id bet a coca cola that the number of 5 star recruits who do not get drafted is way less than 3 stars who do....even adjusted for the disparity in numbers between the 2. It is entirely possible that a 5 star will be a bust....happens all the time...but overall it does indeed matter. Really makes a difference in college football and overall program success. Still have to coach them up but it makes a difference
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:16 pm to RollTide1987
Hey genius, you proved their point in your post. When people say that, they typically mean star ratings aren’t the end all be all.
Notice how there are more 3 stars and way more 4 stars than 5 stars in the NFL draft. Again, you’re proving their point.
Notice how there are more 3 stars and way more 4 stars than 5 stars in the NFL draft. Again, you’re proving their point.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:20 pm to RollTide1987
Eminem and Sting to headline 2024 Formula One Grand Prix concerts in Austin.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:34 pm to RollTide1987
Now do the rest of rest of the rounds.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:45 pm to RollTide1987
This implies that if you recruit/buy/sign 4 and 5 stars all you have to do is suit em up and let ‘em play and they’re an NFL lock. Clearly if you start with higher quality raw material you’ll generally get a better product, but you still have to build/develop it.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:21 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
22 of 32 players picked in the first round were former blue-chippers. - A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was nine times more likely to go in the first round than a 4-star recruit. - A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was 85 times more likely to go in the first round than a 3-star recruit.
I believe 2023 Washington, 2022 TCU, and 2010 Oregon are the only teams to make it to a national championship game that aren’t averaging a top 10 recruiting class in a 4 year cycle in the 21st century.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:26 pm to RollTide1987
The're definitely not infalliable, OTOH, they're a pretty good gauge. The top recruiting classes are up there for a reason for the natty.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:09 pm to RollTide1987
Star rating are the margin of error. More 4 and 5 stars means more margin for error to be wrong in the evaluation.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:01 pm to RollTide1987
Nice post. Data is undeniable. And supports why these kids are ruining college football with NIL deals and annual transfers. I wonder if in a few years the data will be skewed as fewer 5 stars focus on self development versus NIL money deals.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:33 pm to RollTide1987
How do they do historically in the league? Do most of them end up having good careers or wash out?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:37 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
5-stars: 7
quote:
3-stars: 9
Looks like the diamonds outperformed the blue chips.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 6:57 pm to RollTide1987
They honestly do, but the untold story is that matter way more to certain positions than others. Look at the all pro list last year, the defense was almost all former five/four star recruit, the offensive side was about 50 percent blue chip. The hit rate on blue chip dline men making the league is insanely high. Offensive line is the exact opposite.
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