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re: Latest Team National Champion Vegas Odds Released by VegasInsider.com
Posted on 10/7/14 at 2:49 pm to Broncothor
Posted on 10/7/14 at 2:49 pm to Broncothor
quote:
Low odds don't entice bets. High odds do. If you think we have no chance and Vegas is after our money, they would have us at 50/1. I don't get your logic.
The betting public is not going to go for UGA at 8/1. Vegas is protecting themselves from a flood of bets if UGA beats Missouri imo
This post was edited on 10/7/14 at 2:50 pm
2
Posted on 10/7/14 at 2:51 pm to Crowknowsbest
So they are preventing UGA betting, not sucker betting.
This post was edited on 10/7/14 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 10/7/14 at 3:18 pm to dallasga6
I'd bet small change.
I can afford the loss.
I can afford the loss.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 3:30 pm to dallasga6
How are those odds possible after watching our play?
I felt like we lost after watching Vandy game.
I think Mizz beats us by 14pts.
I felt like we lost after watching Vandy game.
I think Mizz beats us by 14pts.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 3:31 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:
The betting public is not going to go for UGA at 8/1. Vegas is protecting themselves from a flood of bets if UGA beats Missouri imo
Smart man ^
Posted on 10/7/14 at 3:33 pm to Dawg4Life47
quote:
I felt like we lost after watching Vandy game.
That's exactly how they're possible. UGA blew Vandy out sleepwalking through the game.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 3:36 pm to Dawg4Life47
quote:
I think Mizz beats us by 14pts
I like what I'm hearing so far this week........
Seems like the team always rises to the occasion and pulls through when the trendy mindset among the fans is to have given up on them.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 4:12 pm to retooc
I'd imagine they would pull the lines on Saturday and reopen them the following week. Don't think they're protecting the mizzou game
Posted on 10/7/14 at 4:17 pm to tween the hedges
I really don't think a lot of people on here have watched any other teams besides UGA play this year......
If you compare Georgia to the rest of the field, they don't look near as bad as some see them in a vacuum.
These odds all seem legit to me.
If you compare Georgia to the rest of the field, they don't look near as bad as some see them in a vacuum.
These odds all seem legit to me.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 4:24 pm to Jefferson Dawg
Oh it's wide open but I think its high. 8 to 1 doesn't seem like smart money when that entails making the sec champ game, winning it, and beating 2 legit teams in the playoffs.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 4:27 pm to Jefferson Dawg
quote:
These odds all seem legit to me.
Looks like the Vegas take (as of today) is that...
If we play close to our potential & continue to improve bit by bit on "D", Aub is the only game we'll be a underdog in, so basically Vegas sees UGA as a team having a 1 game season left, it's at home & AU will prolly be less than a 7 point favorite... Of course thats looking at it today, not Sunday if we lose.
Other than AU & Bama it looks like they expect the West to cannibalize itself (OM, MSU, aTm beating each other up) & the AU-UA winner coming outta the West & playing UGA...
That's just the read I get by looking at these odds...
This post was edited on 10/7/14 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 10/7/14 at 4:28 pm to tween the hedges
If someone is confident we win...bet us straight up every game this season and keep adding your winnings to next weeks wager. You'll see a lot better than an 8 to 1 payout in the end
Posted on 10/7/14 at 4:31 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:
UGA blew Vandy out sleepwalking through the game.
Bingo.
2007 - Beat Vandy by 3, then beat UF, and couldn't be stopped.
2012 - Got raped by USCe, barely beat Kentucky. Beat UF, then we look like a fricking elite team.
Richt has a history of starting off slow. If we're "slow" and still winning by 27, we have potential.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 5:55 pm to dallasga6
quote:
Aub is the only game we'll be a underdog in, so basically Vegas sees UGA as a team having a 1 game season left
If only it were that easy.
Been a long time since I actually knew wtf I was talking about when it came to statistics, but I think this is pretty straightforward. Take these hypothetical percentages below that I came up with for our odds to win the rest of our games, based on what I know today.
MIZZ 60%
ARK 65%
UF 70%
UK 75%
AU 45%
ChSo 99%
GT 70%
Statistics says the probability of ALL of those being true means mulitplying them all together. Doing that, we have a 6.4% chance to win out the regular season.
Then what happens...
SECC 25%
Semi 25%
Final 20%
0.08% chance this happens according to my logic. I think that's something like 1200/1. Who wants to bet against me?
How in the HELL does Vegas come up with 8/1? Somebody tell me what I'm missing
The scenario that is much more likely to happen is us losing a regular season SEC game, not going to the SECC, and making the playoffs with 2 losses thanks to what happened last weekend.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 6:10 pm to UGAalum08
quote:
1200/1
Now calculate the odds of the rest if the top-10. Let's compare.
Posted on 10/7/14 at 6:16 pm to PortlyDawg
Yeah...I know what you're getting it. I'd be curious to see what would happen if I did, but tbh, I don't have the motivation to do it...and I also don't know any team nearly as well as I do UGA, so my estimates would be way off.
What I do know is that if I ran FSU through the same logic, it would be waaaaaayyyyyyy higher than 1200/1, and the 11/2 that the bookies have them at might be pretty close to what I came out to.
That's why I can't figure out how Vegas has us at 8/1, and I've got us at, I dunno...700/1 at best (in the 2 loss scenario). I'm not a pessimistic a-hole either.
What I do know is that if I ran FSU through the same logic, it would be waaaaaayyyyyyy higher than 1200/1, and the 11/2 that the bookies have them at might be pretty close to what I came out to.
That's why I can't figure out how Vegas has us at 8/1, and I've got us at, I dunno...700/1 at best (in the 2 loss scenario). I'm not a pessimistic a-hole either.
This post was edited on 10/7/14 at 6:18 pm
Posted on 10/7/14 at 6:27 pm to UGAalum08
Yeah...if you think of the sec championship as play in to the big playoff, I still don't know if I'd give us a 1 in 8 chance of beating 3 top 5 teams in a row. To make it 8 to 1 when we are far from guaranteed to even make the seccg is a stretch. No way we get an at large as a 2 loss team not playing in the seccg
Posted on 10/7/14 at 6:27 pm to Jefferson Dawg
quote:
I like what I'm hearing so far this week........ Seems like the team always rises to the occasion and pulls through when the trendy mindset among the fans is to have given up on them.
You like hearing what? That we lost another db and are going to get torched by Mauk. I am generally disney, but nothing shows me we are doing any better than 9-3.
This post was edited on 10/7/14 at 6:29 pm
Posted on 10/7/14 at 6:28 pm to UGAalum08
quote:
0.08% chance this happens according to my logic. I think that's something like 1200/1.
Well never fricking mind then....
Posted on 10/7/14 at 6:29 pm to tween the hedges
quote:
I'd imagine they would pull the lines on Saturday and reopen them the following week. Don't think they're protecting the mizzou game
Plus, who would bet on us to win the MNC even if we do beat Mizzou? Its not like they're some top teir team. Plus, we still have half the season to play. That logic might work if we're still a one loss team playing Auburn, but it doesn't fit here.
This post was edited on 10/7/14 at 6:31 pm
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