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Anyone follow Parker Fleming on Twitter? Re: Mizzou Game
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:50 am
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:50 am
He posts a "did your team really lose that bad" graphic every week. Big analytic guy.
Anyways, usually teams that win have a higher "success rate" (analytic stat) compared to the team they are playing. Sometimes, though, teams can win with a lower success rate. According to this week's graph, Mizzou should have won as they had the higher success rate.
If I knew how to post pictures I would include a picture of the graph. Not sure on what variables go into the success rate calculations, but the graph usually matches up with the eye test pretty well.
The turnovers were our friend on Saturday.
Anyways, usually teams that win have a higher "success rate" (analytic stat) compared to the team they are playing. Sometimes, though, teams can win with a lower success rate. According to this week's graph, Mizzou should have won as they had the higher success rate.
If I knew how to post pictures I would include a picture of the graph. Not sure on what variables go into the success rate calculations, but the graph usually matches up with the eye test pretty well.
The turnovers were our friend on Saturday.
4
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:55 am to K9
Maybe not that big an impact. Lassiter was our friend saturday.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:01 am to Spaceman Spiff
He's getting close to he Baker, Stokes category if he isn't already there. People that know more than me said him playing in the slot and Boundary corner spots in the same game is pretty incredible. Especially since he hasn't played in the slot all year. Think Kirby said he cross trained there back in his freshman year. Dude is really good and a physical corner to boot.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:07 am to K9
quote:
According to this week's graph, Mizzou should have won as they had the higher success rate.
I admittedly don't have a clue how PFF and other analytics driven folks derive their info, but I don't see how you can make this claim. If someone wanted to say OSU in the bowl game "should have won", ok I could entertain that. But not Saturday.
Missouri has a stellar offense that has QB/RB/WR that are atop or near the top of all league rankings. 2 of those 3 were almost fully shut down. In the first half they gashed us with QB runs and we totally shut that down in the second half. For as explosive as their offense is, we held them to 1 TD and 1 FG in each half. We held their QB to numbers well, WELL below his season average. Our QB was his typical accurate self and threw 2 TD and 0 turnovers. We were better on 3rd down, gaind more yards, had less pentalites, had less turnovers.
I mean, I just don't see any way that you can say they "should have won". If his whole point was the turnovers or their timing, that's a shite excuse. The opening kick of the game we fumbled completely on our own, that is a turnover play (had we turned it over) where you can say yeah that was entirely on us. Both of cook's interceptions were the result of our defense. Let's also not gloss over the THREE times their center snapped the ball while the QB was looking to the sidelines and it landed right in his breadbasket and the play still went off, or hte ridiculously incompetent officiating.
Hell now that I'm thinning about if we shoudl've won by more.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:11 am to WG_Dawg
He just posts the graph, no analysis. The turnover comment was mine.
I don't know what all goes into the calcs either but I think that was a coin flip game. The total stats are all pretty similar. They had more explosive plays on offense and forced more negative plays on defense than we did. Pretty sure those two categories play a big role in the calcs, but again, not positive.
I don't know what all goes into the calcs either but I think that was a coin flip game. The total stats are all pretty similar. They had more explosive plays on offense and forced more negative plays on defense than we did. Pretty sure those two categories play a big role in the calcs, but again, not positive.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:27 am to K9
Id assume those stats don’t take into account Smart’s game. He likes to make first downs and eat clock, especially with a lead. Interesting that the offensive stats were pretty similar. Both teams had 21 first downs and similar yards rushing and passing. Their QB was under 50% passing beck was 66%. They had 2 turnovers and UGA had the ball for 10 more minutes.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:05 am to K9
Hell, you just need to look at the box score to see that Mizzou put up numbers as good as UGA did. Came out even on first downs gained. One less 3rd down conversion. 22 less total offense. Give them those two turnovers back and they beat us across the board, statistically. The turnovers are absolutely what sealed the game for us.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:08 am to K9
quote:
People that know more than me said him playing in the slot and Boundary corner spots in the same game is pretty incredible.
The Film Guy, AKA Brooks Austin said that game was won on Monday when Kirby moved Lassiter to slot for Burden, who - after that pushoff td - had only 14 yards receiving
This post was edited on 11/6/23 at 10:07 am
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:19 am to Peter Buck
Success rate is a very basic formula.
Over 4 yards on 1st down.
Over half of the distance to convert on 2nd down.
Convert on 3rd/4th down.
What percentage of all snaps are successful?
We got stoned on 1st down a lot. I don't know the rate which we "had success" on 2nd down. 3rd down was average.
Missouri probably had more success on first (and consequently more success on 2nd) downs.
No biggie
Kirby's key stats are havoc rate/explosive rate and turnovers.
Everything is slicing the pie up slightly so different. None of it alone guarantees anything.
The only stat that matters is points after the game.
Over 4 yards on 1st down.
Over half of the distance to convert on 2nd down.
Convert on 3rd/4th down.
What percentage of all snaps are successful?
We got stoned on 1st down a lot. I don't know the rate which we "had success" on 2nd down. 3rd down was average.
Missouri probably had more success on first (and consequently more success on 2nd) downs.
No biggie
Kirby's key stats are havoc rate/explosive rate and turnovers.
Everything is slicing the pie up slightly so different. None of it alone guarantees anything.
The only stat that matters is points after the game.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:29 am to meansonny
Funny they had same first downs and 10 minutes less TOP than us.
For what it is worth, We had 2 timeouts and almost 2 minutes on the clock at the end of the game if we needed it.
For what it is worth, We had 2 timeouts and almost 2 minutes on the clock at the end of the game if we needed it.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 2:03 pm to K9
Here’s the graph FWIW
Posted on 11/6/23 at 2:08 pm to dhuck20
Not sure how a team with 2 turnovers to zero could any net better stat.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 2:14 pm to RealDawg
Relatively simple I would assume. The turnover just goes down as one single “negative play” but in reality we know it’s probably equivalent to more like 5 negative plays because of the incredible impact on the score and game overall.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 2:51 pm to dhuck20
How did you post that ?
Posted on 11/6/23 at 2:54 pm to K9
On iPhone. If you hold your finger on the image and select copy, when you paste it into the img field on TD/Secrant then it automatically turns it into the img url, at least from Twitter. 
Posted on 11/6/23 at 3:03 pm to dhuck20
Android here and maybe that's the issue. Don't have the copy option unless I click the share button on Twitter. When I paste that link into the image quote nothing happens
Posted on 11/6/23 at 4:42 pm to K9
quote:
Android here and maybe that's the issue. Don't have the copy option unless I click the share button on Twitter. When I paste that link into the image quote nothing happens
When you hit "share" you should get the option to "copy link". Do that and paste into the img tag.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 5:02 pm to Cheer
That's what I was describing in my previous. I do that and get nothing. It's copying the Twitter address instead of the image I think?
Am I a boomer?
This post was edited on 11/6/23 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 11/6/23 at 6:42 pm to K9
quote:If you have to ask…
Am I a boomer?
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:26 pm to Peter Buck
quote:
Id assume those stats don’t take into account Smart’s game. He likes to make first downs and eat clock, especially with a lead.
Anyone that hasn’t noticed this isn’t paying attention. If we’re up by two scores we burn clock on offense and cap the opposing teams yardage on defense. CKS doesn’t care if an opposing team scores at the end….as long as they have to eat the entire clock to do it late in the 4th.
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