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Does 247

Posted on 1/17/15 at 8:47 pm
Posted by RealityIs
Member since Nov 2014
128 posts
Posted on 1/17/15 at 8:47 pm
Count all recruits when they calculate the team rankings?
Posted by dreaux
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2006
40881 posts
Posted on 1/17/15 at 8:48 pm to
Just the top 20 (I believe)
Posted by WhistlinDixie15
I make people sleepy
Member since Oct 2012
7782 posts
Posted on 1/17/15 at 8:50 pm to
Pretty sure that













Admins don't like to see cliffhanger titles





Just sayin
This post was edited on 1/17/15 at 8:51 pm
Posted by lsufanva
sandston virginia
Member since Aug 2009
12380 posts
Posted on 1/17/15 at 9:07 pm to
They do I believe but is on a curve. Go to the calculator and it will break it all down by commit.

Actually the best calculating system in use on the sites.

Scouts is too basic and doesn't value actual ranking just stars for the most part.

Rivals has some crazy formula that they leave open to tampering with the unknown variable

ESPN is well ESPN. Don't think they actually have a formula at all. Even if they did, who cares?
Posted by RealityIs
Member since Nov 2014
128 posts
Posted on 1/17/15 at 9:44 pm to
Top 20? Got a link.
Posted by Socratics
Virginia Beach
Member since Dec 2013
2463 posts
Posted on 1/17/15 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

Just the top 20 (I believe)


If that was 100% true, Tennessee wouldn't be as high as they are in the recruitment rankings. You can tell by looking at average player score for a team.

They use a formula that slowly devalues each additional recruit the larger your recruitment class gets.


You have the right idea. Your Top 20 recruits are the ones that really matter ,but you get some credit for each recruit over that.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63958 posts
Posted on 1/18/15 at 8:41 am to
I ran into this earlier last year when Ledbetter flipped from Bama to UGA.

Uga's score went up 20 points, but Bama's only dropped 3 points, or something like that.

The only way I could eventually figure that is because Ledbetter was only the 15th best player on the Bama list, his weighted value was alot less. On Georgia's list, he was one of the top 5 players, weighing his score much more heavily.

Kind of weird and inconsistent, I like my method better.



Posted by stewie
Member since Jan 2006
3951 posts
Posted on 1/18/15 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Uga's score went up 20 points, but Bama's only dropped 3 points, or something like that.


Dat 'Bama bias doe!
Posted by chattabama
12essee
Member since Jun 2012
19315 posts
Posted on 1/18/15 at 11:04 am to
quote:

I ran into this earlier last year when Ledbetter flipped from Bama to UGA.

Uga's score went up 20 points, but Bama's only dropped 3 points, or something like that.

The only way I could eventually figure that is because Ledbetter was only the 15th best player on the Bama list, his weighted value was alot less. On Georgia's list, he was one of the top 5 players, weighing his score much more heavily.

Kind of weird and inconsistent, I like my method better.


Yeah, I don't understand the methodology behind all of it. You could get rid of Alabama's highest rated player, Calvin Ridley, and only lose 5.7 points from the class calculator, and he is worth 29.3 points.
Posted by Agforlife
Somewhere in the Brazos Valley
Member since Nov 2012
20102 posts
Posted on 1/18/15 at 11:05 am to
They all put weight on different shite so who knows wtf any of it means
Posted by Nguyening
SEMO
Member since Jun 2013
9057 posts
Posted on 1/18/15 at 11:21 am to
You wouldn't lose much total bc each recruit under him
Moves up when he leaves.

Your top recruit is worth his % rating x 30 I believe. It scales down with each recruit.
Posted by Socratics
Virginia Beach
Member since Dec 2013
2463 posts
Posted on 1/18/15 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

I ran into this earlier last year when Ledbetter flipped from Bama to UGA.

Uga's score went up 20 points, but Bama's only dropped 3 points, or something like that.

The only way I could eventually figure that is because Ledbetter was only the 15th best player on the Bama list, his weighted value was alot less. On Georgia's list, he was one of the top 5 players, weighing his score much more heavily.

Kind of weird and inconsistent, I like my method better.



quote:

Yeah, I don't understand the methodology behind all of it. You could get rid of Alabama's highest rated player, Calvin Ridley, and only lose 5.7 points from the class calculator, and he is worth 29.3 points.


Thats just how far ahead Bama's recruitment really is above everyone else. If you took top recruits from someone like Clemson it would hurt a lot more.

My theory

Individual player rankings are a measure skill and likelihood they will develop into an NFL caliber player.

Team rankings are a measure of the how much they believe those players as whole will make an impact on college football over the span of their career.

Bama has insane amounts of talent every year ,but they will never use all it. How many people in this class will ever start at Alabama? Bama's 3* recruits are far more likely to have an effect on say a team like Kansas St than they would ever have at Bama.

That why they weigh the best recruits on a team so high and devalue the lower ones.

I mean really whats the point of having every recruit at 100% value with a limited amount of starting spots.

Montrell Custis ,CB .8620 3* rating (Bama lowest rated recruit)

Is this guy statistically as likely to have an impact at Alabama as these guys. He seems destined to be a bench-warmer with talent like this.

2015
Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB .9878 5*
Kendall Sheffield, CB .9906 5*
Rico McGraw, CB .9333 4*

2014
Tony Brown, CB .9951 5*
Marlon Humphrey, CB .9940 5*


Montrell Custis might be the premier CB at UCF or a solid starter at Texas A&M. At Bama, he might not ever get playing time as a backup.

Do you guys think Montrell Custis should receive his full worth at Alabama?
This post was edited on 1/18/15 at 2:44 pm
Posted by WalkingTurtles
Alexandria
Member since Jan 2013
5913 posts
Posted on 1/18/15 at 2:55 pm to
It makes me wonder why ol Montrell Custis committed to Bama in the first place. Seems he would be better suited for a mid major program where he can get recognition.
Posted by Socratics
Virginia Beach
Member since Dec 2013
2463 posts
Posted on 1/19/15 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

It makes me wonder why ol Montrell Custis committed to Bama in the first place. Seems he would be better suited for a mid major program where he can get recognition.


I agree 100% with this statement. However, Nick Saban is the greatest recruiter in college football history. He managed to get kids to ignore the competition for playing time and buy into his system. I hope they make a documentary one day on Nick Saban system.
Posted by Bham4Tide
In a Van down by the River
Member since Feb 2011
22091 posts
Posted on 1/19/15 at 5:54 pm to
Hanging thread title? Geez dude, get with the program.
Posted by Bham4Tide
In a Van down by the River
Member since Feb 2011
22091 posts
Posted on 1/19/15 at 6:01 pm to
You just never know about these kids like Custis, or for that matter, the 5-star guys. Bama has a few in the NFL right now that were walk-ons (R. Johnson) and 2-star guys (Arenas). Kareem Jackson (Texans) was only offered by Bowling Green, Ohio, Vandy, and the like.

The star system is so subjective.
Posted by Socratics
Virginia Beach
Member since Dec 2013
2463 posts
Posted on 1/19/15 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

You just never know about these kids like Custis, or for that matter, the 5-star guys. Bama has a few in the NFL right now that were walk-ons (R. Johnson) and 2-star guys (Arenas). Kareem Jackson (Texans) was only offered by Bowling Green, Ohio, Vandy, and the like.

The star system is so subjective.



The system isn't perfect. On a Micro level, its going to have a decent amount of misses. On a Macro level, its consistent every year.

quote:

A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).


Also, the majority of the star system isn't subjective. Only stuff like "instinct" "play-making" "Pocket Presence" are subjective in the system.

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