re: Would ATM have won the Natty if they didn't jump to the SEC?

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Most 1-loss SEC Champs don't get to play for the NC

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Of the BCS National Champions from the SEC:

1998 - Tennessee (unbeaten)
2003 - LSU (1-loss)
2006 - Florida (1-loss)
2007 - LSU (2-loss)
2008 - Florida (1-loss)
2009 - Alabama (unbeaten)
2010 - Auburn (unbeaten)
2011 - Alabama (1-loss, beat unbeaten LSU)
2012 - Alabama (1-loss)

Of the 9 SEC BCS Champions, only three went unbeaten.

Also, out of all the BCS Champions, only the SEC has won the title without being undefeated.