Why LSU CAN beat Alabama - my breakdown.

I've hesitated doing a breakdown for this game for these past two weeks simply because so many people have been doing it already. I've been watching film of both teams that entire time trying to get a feel on how this game will go.

I think we've all seen enough of Alabama to know why they can beat LSU and any team in the country. Their defense is elite, their offense makes big plays, and their special teams can suck the life out of a team (I see you, Speedy).

What I think gets lost in the discussion of this game is simply how talented LSU's football team is. I think we've all been enamoured by Alabama's 5 wins in a row and how dominant they've been all season and have forgotten what it takes to actually beat a Nick Saban led Crimson Tide.

Every Alabama loss that I can remember came from a team with a mobile QB who could negate defensive pressure and a defense that could slow down Alabama's run game. Does LSU have what it takes? Probably. Will they win on Saturday? Probably not. The consensus is that Alabama is at least a 7 point favorite.

So how do I see this game, you may ask.

We know one thing already: Danny Etling is a serviceable QB. He's the best QB at LSU since Matt Flynn and he can do enough to help the offense score on the vaunted Alabama defense. He has just enough mobility and savvy to move in the pocket to distribute, and when necessary, scramble for a first down.

Will Leonard Fournette be shut down again? Yes and no. Alabama will key in on LSU's run looks and will probably get sucked in just enough for Etling to distribute the ball on quick, short timing routes to the receivers. One thing I've noticed about Fournette over the years is that he is an outstanding pass blocker. He will be crucial in keeping Etling upright. Fournette is also an excellent receiver. Do not be surprised if Fournette is targeted over 10 times in this game.

Last year, LSU's OL got abused by Alabama's DL. They beat them straight up in every facet of the game. On runs their DL was forklifting our OL and making solo tackles on Fournette. On passes they were throwing OL away like rag dolls and making Harris' life hell in the pocket. One thing that's been changed since Coach Orgeron took over is more screens, short passes, and misdirection plays designed to negate DL pressure. If there's one thing the coaches have spent these two weeks doing it's designing a game plan to take Johnathan Allen, Tim Williams, and Ryan Anderson out of the game. It won't be a repeat of 2015. The OL will be good enough to move the ball on offense.

LSU will be able to move the ball on Alabama, so what? Alabama will drop 30 on LSU like they've done on every opponent this year. Not so fast. If there's one area that LSU has improved significantly since 2015 it's on defense. The addition of Dave Aranda has completely revolutionized a defense which had problems stopping EVERYONE (except Texas A&M) last year. Aranda's prowess can best be seen in the second half of games when he can make adjustments to an offense. Expect to see the same against Alabama. LSU's defense will be ready for Alabama and will not get run over like most of Bama's opponents.

LSU has the players to shut down Alabama's offense. The defense has no glaring holes. Every position group of LSU's defense will be the best that Alabama has faced and they don't miss tackles often. LSU has moved from the 4-3 defenses of Chavis and Steele and gone to a 3-4 hybrid under Aranda. If Alabama tries to play in a phonebooth against LSU, our guys will be able to stop them. LSU's DL is talented and has depth. Alabama's best bet is to spread out and force LSU into a 4-3 look and threaten with Hurts' running ability. Even then, it's been proven time and time again that LSU has enough team speed to stop a mobile QB. Point blank: Alabama will have many difficulties moving the ball and scoring on LSU.

Finally, LSU has home field advantage. Alabama fans will want to dismiss Tiger Stadium by citing their wins in 2012 and 2014. What they conveniently forget is that both AJ McCarron and Blake Sims were rattled in those games. It won't be any different for Jalen Hurts no matter how poised he has been all year. Alabama has played in front of big crowds this year, most notably Tennessee's, but Tiger Stadium is different, simply put. Alabama will be affected by crowd noise and LSU's defense will feed off of it.

At the end of the day, Alabama still has more depth, better coaches, and a more complete team on offense and defense. Their defense has been getting turnovers and turning them into touchdowns all season. LSU will have to play near perfect on offense to come close to winning this game. If LSU's defense stays on the field too long, Alabama will start to drive and that's when things get ugly.

At the end of the day, I expect a low scoring, hard hitting game. This is annually the biggest showcase of future NFL talent and it often produces very memorable games. I expect nothing less.

I see a 20-16 type game either way with Alabama having a better chance of pulling it off. I hope everyone enjoys it as much as I will.