re: Why Do Alabama Fans Think They Will Beat LSU?

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The only thing relevant to this football season is that the game will be AT Alabama, where LSU has done really well in the past.

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Seriously? You are going to say HIS post is not relevant to this season, then talk about how LSU has done well at Alabama in the past?

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I started with talking about LSU's improvements

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LSU improvements are all speculative....you don't know that their offense will be improved. You HOPE it will. But a new OC does not = improvement every time. You lost key members of your defense, yet in your world that = improvement? Sure, you have some experienced players coming back, but you lost KEY members. The new players will have to play up to Mingo, etc levels. As much as you guys WANT that to happen, it is unlikely. You will experience at LEAST a small drop.

Just like Georgia lost Jarvis Jones. We HOPE and THINK Jordan Jenkins will do as well, but chances are there will be a dropoff...at LEAST a small one.

OR 4 out of 6.

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For your information, we were behind 14-3 at halftime, and outscored you 14-0 until the last minute.
One more first down, and we do 3 kneeldowns, and Alabama leaves Baton Rouge having gained 45 yards, ONE first down, and ZERO passing yards in the second half.

LSU had their chances TOO you know, Alabama is not the ONLY one that can have 'missed opportunities".
To wit:
Long pass play to the Bama 10, called back by Copeland stupid penalty. This ultimately culminated in the missed 54 FG that gave Alabama chance to score right before the half.
That was a 14 point swing. Instead of being ahead 10-7 at halftime or 7-6 Bama, it's 14-3 Bama.
We had chances to put you people away TWICE in the second half - the first on the 4th and one wildcat by Ware that was telegraphed, and the second with 2 minutes left and 1st and 10 on your 32 yard line.

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You listed 3 chances, so I will counter with 3 of my own.
1. AJ overthrew a wide open Cooper early in the game. Keep in mind that Alabama played most of the game without their best target.
2. Fumbled handoff around LSU's 10 yard line; that was an unforced error. Alabama averaged 6.0 yards/carry that night, so I like their chances to go up 21-3 if the ball isn't fumbled — maybe not on that down, but on the following.
3. This is absurd! LSU shutdown and sold out against the pass yet Alabama abandoned their 6.0 yards/carry running game in the second half. Along with McCarron's fresh rib injury, this explains the offenses dismal performance in the second half. Our offensive coordinator obviously wan't paying much attention to the success of the ground game and didn't truly learn to take what the defense gives until the second half of the SEC Champsionship.

I noticed a debate regarding whether or not 11/5/11 was a fluke. Both teams had their shots at touchdowns in regulation; however, LSU's would have been after blown coverage and/or an interception return. Alabama did not need help like that to get into the end zone. Rewatch the Reid interception, the pass wasn't bad, but could have been placed a little better; it was a great play call, but a defender in the passer's face forced him to throw the ball a little off. Notwithstanding, if the target had won the battle for the ball then it would have been a completion around your 1 yard line. In retrospect, all Alabama would have needed is a field goal, and Shelley is great on short range field goals. Also, it's already been pointed out elsewhere if not here that the only stat that LSU won was in rushing yards. Another great stat, is that Alabama never trailed until the game was over. Some can continue to believe or convince themselves that LSU was the better team on 11/5/11, but at best LSU was even that date. On 1/9/12, they were not. Alabama was clearly the better team. Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee weren't good quarterbacks, so it's kinda silly to point out that Jordan Jefferson had yet another ofs game; it should have been something you guys were used to. Besides, Alabama's defensive performance on 1/9/12 made things much harder for Jordan Jefferson anyways. Miles should have added new looks or wrinkles to the offense. AJ McCarron was held back on 11/5/11, but he still managed to pass for about 200 yards on 1/9/12, but that time his performance was much improved. LSU's defense didn't get any worse, Alabama just played better.