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Updated Lunardi Bracketology: Vandy last 4 in
Posted on 2/15/16 at 8:58 am
Posted on 2/15/16 at 8:58 am
4
Posted on 2/15/16 at 9:01 am to jptiger2009
Bama has a huge uphill battle with that .500 conference record. Need to finish like 5-1 to have a real shot. 4-2 might not do it (10-8 in the SEC will look really bad). 3-3 definitely wont.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 9:02 am to jptiger2009
quote:
Bama pushing to be 7th.
Hard to beleieve after they lost to us Aubies. We suck
Posted on 2/15/16 at 9:06 am to jptiger2009
I am absolutely shocked he has LSU as a 7 seed. Way too high but I'll take it. That's where I want to end up come Selection Sunday.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 9:06 am to GenesChin
quote:
Hard to beleieve after they lost to us Aubies. We suck
They'll get another crack at it in Tuscaloosa.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:27 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
Bama has a huge uphill battle with that .500 conference record. Need to finish like 5-1 to have a real shot. 4-2 might not do it (10-8 in the SEC will look really bad). 3-3 definitely wont.
In addition to simply winning out at home,
Alabama needs Florida, Texas A&M (and South Carolina, Wichita St, Notre Dame to a lesser degree) to finish out the season decently enough to remain solid NCAA tourney teams with good RPIs.
Even if a potential 9-9 conference record doesn't look great by itself, it's only one aspect and the committee would certainly consider Alabama's 9-9 includes 2 games each against the likely top 3 in Kentucky, South Carolina and LSU.
They would then probably would need to avoid a bad first round loss in the tourney but it would have their profile at:
19-13 (9-9) with an RPI around 40, a top 20 SOS and a lot more high RPI wins than most other bubble teams (with their worst point of the season coming right after they lost Ingram for the season but adjusting and finishing strong).
That's a profile which usually gets a bid.
This post was edited on 2/15/16 at 7:09 pm
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:34 am to wm72
quote:agree.
19-13 (9-9) with an RPI around 40, a top 20 SOS and a lot more high RPI wins than most other bubble teams (with their lowest point of the season coming right after losing Ingram but finishing strong). That's usually a profile that seem teams get a bid.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:36 am to wm72
quote:
In addition to simply winning out at home,
Alabama needs Florida, Texas A&M (and South Carolina, Wichita St, Notre Dame to a lesser degree) to finish out the season decently enough to remain solid NCAA tourney teams with good RPIs.
Even if a potential 9-9 conference record doesn't look great by itself, it's only one aspect and the committee would certainly consider Alabama's 9-9 including 2 games each against the likely top 3 in Kentucky, South Carolina and LSU.
They would probably would need to avoid a bad first round loss in the tourney but this would have their profile at:
19-13 (9-9) with an RPI around 40, a top 20 SOS and a lot more high RPI wins than most other bubble teams (with their lowest point of the season coming right after losing Ingram but finishing strong). That's usually a profile that seem teams get a bid.
Nice answer ... and you're right.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:49 am to scrooster
I would have a hard time thinking the SEC will get 7 teams in when they is only one ranked team (Kentucky) and they are just a top 20 team. Texas A&M should fall out this week. That's just too many damn bubble teams. They cant all get in and there is not really any big wins you can get sans Kentucky in this league.
I just see a whole lot of bubble teams being able to leapfrog SEC teams by beating or at least playing ranked opponents every week.
I cant believe Vandy is in over Bama though. Bama is a better team
I just see a whole lot of bubble teams being able to leapfrog SEC teams by beating or at least playing ranked opponents every week.
I cant believe Vandy is in over Bama though. Bama is a better team
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:51 am to SouthOfSouth
quote:
I am absolutely shocked he has LSU as a 7 seed. Way too high but I'll take it. That's where I want to end up come Selection Sunday.
if lsu wins the games that they're supposed to win (all remaining games minus @UK) and happens to upset UK in Lexington and wins the SEC, are we potentially looking at a 4 seed? Unreal...
#2015-16SECchamps
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:53 am to MeatPants
quote:
I would have a hard time thinking the SEC will get 7 teams in when they is only one ranked team (Kentucky) and they are just a top 20 team. Texas A&M should fall out this week. That's just too many damn bubble teams. They cant all get in and there is not really any big wins you can get sans Kentucky in this league.
go check RPI and BPI. SEC is a top-3 league this year regardless of how many teams get in.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:55 am to jptiger2009
quote:
if lsu wins the games that they're supposed to win (all remaining games minus @UK)
i dont think lsu is good enough to say they should win all the games left except possibly UK. The road games are toss-ups.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:59 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
Need to finish like 5-1 to have a real shot. 4-2 might not do it (10-8 in the SEC will look really bad). 3-3 definitely wont.
I disagree with this but hopefully Bama finishes well and the 9-9 conference record won't be an issue.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 11:09 am to MeatPants
quote:
I would have a hard time thinking the SEC will get 7 teams in when they is only one ranked team (Kentucky) and they are just a top 20 team. Texas A&M should fall out this week. That's just too many damn bubble teams. They cant all get in and there is not really any big wins you can get sans Kentucky in this league.
I just see a whole lot of bubble teams being able to leapfrog SEC teams by beating or at least playing ranked opponents every week.
I cant believe Vandy is in over Bama though. Bama is a better team
It's not a bad point you make about the lack of top 25 teams in the rankings and some bubble teams elsewhere having more chances for "game changing" wins down the stretch.
However, at least for now, the SEC does have a lot of higher RPI teams like South Carolina, Texas A&M, Florida, even Alabama is in the mid 30s right now and LSU with Simmons gets a lot of respect even if their RPI isn't that great.
Unlike in previous seasons, the teams that aren't in the top25 do have a lot of solid OOC wins (Florida over West Virginia and St Joes, Texas A&M beating half the Big12, Alabama over Notre Dame and other potential bubble opponents in Wichita St and Clemson etc).
I do agree that Vandy may have even more "work left to do" than Alabama since they likely need to add another higher RPI win (at very least Florida or Texas A&M) since their resume is a bit weaker in quality wins and the higher RPI is mainly due to a tough OOC schedule that didn't see them actually get any wins against those teams.
This post was edited on 2/15/16 at 11:11 am
Posted on 2/15/16 at 11:11 am to jptiger2009
quote:
go check RPI and BPI. SEC is a top-3 league this year regardless of how many teams get in.
What? No they're not. Did you just make that up?
SEC is 6th in RPI
https://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html
Posted on 2/15/16 at 11:12 am to wm72
quote:
However, at least for now, the SEC does have a lot of higher RPI teams like South Carolina, Texas A&M, Florida, even Alabama is in the mid 30s right now and LSU with Simmons gets a lot of respect even if their RPI isn't that great.
I'll steal the stat SoS posted on the tiger rant. LSU's OOC rpi when 40% of our starting lineup was out is in the 220s. Our conference rpi with a full squad is 6th nationally.
LSU's overall rpi of 72 is obviously not good but it has a bit of an asterisk next to it.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 11:14 am to arkyhawk
Idk where he got that from but id say our top9 teams are pretty decent.
We have 2 garbage teams, 1 awful team and 2 bad teams.
We have 2 garbage teams, 1 awful team and 2 bad teams.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 11:16 am to Bryant91092
People go crazy over the computer rankings. Like if one team is a 33 rpi and the other is 42 than naturally the 33 rpi team is better or more deserving.
But that isn't how it works. Its just a guide.
The problem is the SEC bubble teams don't have any marquee games or wins to make people notice in the upcoming games like in other conferences
Wisconsin and Texas Tech are great examples. Both went from being in first four out or even next four out to a 9 or 10 seed by beating Maryland and Iowa State in just one game.
I don't know if beating Florida is going to make people notice or give the jump you need
But that isn't how it works. Its just a guide.
The problem is the SEC bubble teams don't have any marquee games or wins to make people notice in the upcoming games like in other conferences
Wisconsin and Texas Tech are great examples. Both went from being in first four out or even next four out to a 9 or 10 seed by beating Maryland and Iowa State in just one game.
I don't know if beating Florida is going to make people notice or give the jump you need
Posted on 2/15/16 at 11:41 am to MeatPants
quote:
I don't know if beating Florida is going to make people notice or give the jump you need
I get the point you're making and don't completely disagree. I do still think you're downplaying the SEC a bit though.
Those Top 20 wins you mention certainly make headlines but create a bit more of a stir in the "weekly bracketology guesses" than they do at the end of the season when the committee sits down and looks at the entire season and beating Iowa St on Feb 12th or Jan 30th (Texas A&M) aren't much different.
Wins like @Florida you mention may not grab headlines but count for a bit more for the committee than you're crediting when they see Florida's home record, including the blowout of West Virginia etc.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 11:44 am to GenesChin
quote:
Hard to beleieve after they lost to us Aubies. We suck
Teams that are building tend to get better as the season progresses. Auburn is doing this thing in reverse.
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