Ugly cousins from the lovliest village, thoughts on this weekend?

I love my tigers as much as anyone, but I just can't see us pulling it off. Bamas defense is just plain nasty and I don't think our QB/QBs will be able to move the ball consistantly with the kind of pressure bama can get with only 3 or 4 guys. I'd like to say we keep it close but I'd be lying to say I thought we could. Bama by 20. Of course I hope I'm wrong. frick yall

Simple version:

Best case - win by 3 TDs+
Worst case - lose game
Acceptable case - win at all and move on to the SECCG
Probable case - Bama by 14-17 points

I'm pretty nega but I don't see this being some insurmountable task, especially in a rivalry game. I think we'll manage to find the end zone a couple of times.

For the record I don't think we'll win or anything. I do think we'll have something for Bama though, so it won't surprise me if we hang.

Auburn is a shitshow but not in the 2012 manner where I think it was largely impossible for us to play in a competitive fashion. Which to me means we could get completely blown out, but I'd expect us not to collapse from the outset in a game like this and this team has shown some fight when not totally derailed by coaching.

I expect a lower scoring version of last year. Meaning, competitive for a while, Alabama cruises to the win later, wins by 10 or 17 or so.

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I expect a lower scoring version of last year. Meaning, competitive for a while, Alabama cruises to the win later, wins by 10 or 17 or so.

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Kind of where my expectation falls. And I agree, your team is much more like 2009 than 2012, though less explosive on offense and not quite as good on defense.

It would just defy all trends and data from the Nick Saban era for Alabama to lose to a team that is
(a) unranked
(b) below average at QB
(c) unexplosive

But hey, trends are broken sometimes.

Auburn throws enough wrinkles and plays with enough raw emotion to keep it close......for a quarter or so. Boring arse game.

Alabama - 42
Auburn - 14

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What was Bama's trick play, not saying we haven't, just can't think of it. Auburn ran that little guy squat down behind the guard thing a few games back.

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Yea, I don't think we have run any this season. I'm trying to remember the last trick play Kiffin ran, I can't come up with any, unless you count the Brandon Greene play against LSU last year.

McElwain and Nuss used to always have 1 or 2 in their bag. Fake Field Goal against Arky in 2011?, WR pass in 2011 vs LSU, flea flicker at Auburn in 2011.

Auburn Rushing Defense Game by Game

Louisville - 48 att, 238 yds, 4.96 ypc (avg 3.96)
Jacksonville St - 46 att, 161 yds, 3.50 ypc (n/a)
@ LSU - 48 att, 411 yds, 8.56 ypc (avg 5.87)
Miss St - 21 att, 56 yds, 2.67 ypc (avg 4.29)
SJSU - 38 att, 182 yds, 4.79 ypc (avg 4.60)
@ UK - 33 att, 138 yds, 4.18 ypc (avg 4.87)
@ Arky - 49 att, 213 yds, 4.35 ypc (avg 5.03)
Ole Miss - 39 att, 156 yds, 4.00 ypc (avg 4.96)
@ A&M - 38 att, 166 yds, 4.37 ypc (avg 4.55)
UGA - 45 att, 146 yds, 3.24 ypc (avg 5.24)
Idaho - 37 att, 123 yds, 3.32 ypc (avg 3.78)

So most teams run for a little less than their average against Auburn, lets say 0.25 ypc. That would put Alabama at about 4.55 ypc. At 42 carries (about their average) that would put Alabama at about 190. Tack on about 190 passing yards and 380-400 yards seems about right.